Do forex strategys/systems work forever?

What i mean by the above question is, i for example am a scalper, I use a 4 EMA system consisting of 5 high/low/close ema and a 200 close ema. Then MACD set at 5-8-1. The Original post of this system i found it was 4 years old. To this day the system is working like a charm for me. But my question is systems like this do they necessarily last forver with forex? If not how do folks typically keep up to date with their systems? I know summer market i will need to adjust vs the winter market now. Thanks for all help!

All strategies eventually profit and eventually lose. The question is whether the strategy fits you and you can keep it going staying solvent as it loses until it profits and then maximize that profit through the profitable period.

Do the following mental experiment: take the worst system imaginable, one that loses for sure (as far as you can tell). Now do the exact opposite of that system. Go short instead of long and long instead of short. If indeed the system loses consistently, the opposite system would profit consistently.

If it is working from last 4 years then what have made you think it will fail in future? There are some huge and unexpected movement in the market but once it’ll settle down everything will become normal again.

Candlestick patterns have been used to profit for around three/four hundred years and still going strong aren’t they? But this was long before western indicators, so may not apply to indicator reliant strategies or your particular situation? Great to hear another trader profiting.

Best wishes, G

Strategies fade. If you are fortunate enough to find one that works for a long time, then you are good but for the most part, a strategy has a shelf life. An example is the grid system that was so profitable on the Euro Swiss Franc over the last two years. If you have a working system, trade it now and continue to research.

Reading price action will always work.
However, I’d argue it depends on [B][I]who taught you how[/I][/B] to read price action, as to whether or not you’ll survive longer-term.

Is there a book you like on that? One that puts the right light on the subject?

Thank you all for the replies, great answer and helpful!
So looks like with the track history of this system i got a good one, that will hopefully be with me for the long run, as long as I try to keep up with it. Any more information or suggestions welcome thank you!

I think I know the strategy you are referring to, can you please tell me how you trade it? Thanks.

[QUOTE=“jayboii478;679443”]What i mean by the above question is, i for example am a scalper, I use a 4 EMA system consisting of 5 high/low/close ema and a 200 close ema. Then MACD set at 5-8-1. The Original post of this system i found it was 4 years old. To this day the system is working like a charm for me. But my question is systems like this do they necessarily last forver with forex? If not how do folks typically keep up to date with their systems? I know summer market i will need to adjust vs the winter market now. Thanks for all help![/QUOTE]

No, forex systems do not work forever unless they have dynamic inputs to match market conditions.

Market conditions have periods of structural change that will absolutely destroy most rigid systems. One such period was 2008 and 2009. If you want to test a systems robustness… Backtest it using data from 2003 to 2007, then from 2008 to 2009, then from 2009 to present. I have yet to see a mechanical system maintain profitability for all three market periods.

Unfortunately, no- primarily because there isn’t a demand.

Trend followers, candle-stick readers, pivot level strategists, technicians of all sorts say “I trade price action only”. Plenty of them say they ignore fundamentals and trade “pure” price action. When you say that “it depends on who taught you to read price” do you have a particular strategy or system in mind?

I think there should be a combination of technicals and fundamentals. keep it simple, though, but you must be aware of the fundamentals, because they are wha really support the moves and breakouts.

Hey Arbitrager,

My 2 cents. I am but a humble student, and in my FX search for the holy grail, err…i didn’t find it. But i consider myself fortunate to have been pointed towards price action trading early in my education by a mate in 2011, but i also watched all of the webinars and crazy/not so crazy but often complex methods marketed out there, looking for something i could understand and that clicked. I returned to price action on higher time frames e.g. daily, without all of the indicators and equations because it looked simple.

2 people who i follow and imo are straight up dudes are Nial Fuller and our own forex school online thread here. Both of these guys have plenty of free video’s on you tube to check out and see if the method suits. I like this stuff because it’s simple and makes sense (to me). Their free stuff is a great beginning ‘as is’ for a trader. Throw in some smart risk reward and MM, all free info here and on the net, and i reckon it’s a positive start. What i also like is you are learning how to fish, and a lifelong skill. Nothing new or fancy, just trading pullbacks with the trend off a key level. Simple, but like all trading, not necessarily easy.

We’re all different of course, but these trading strategies are the simplest, most straightforward i have found. Effective, and they are free. Sometimes the answer is right under our nose.

Fab trading, G

If I have it right, Nial Fuller teaches methods that use trend lines to determine direction and candlestick reading to determine entries and exits. And I have indeed seen a lot of that out there on websites and in books. For years, I have been familiar with: Steve Nison’s Book

Out of all the “price action” threads on this site specifically, I’ve always felt that Chris Capre’s approach stuck out the most.

When I see what Chris is doing vs. how other popular price action guys teach people (Jonathan Fox), I almost feel sorry for the latter group. There was a post from another user I was interacting with shortly ago about his “A+ setups”- whenever I see someone using that term, I immediately can deduce 4 things 99% of the time:

  1. They are from the Jon Fox / Nial Fuller camp and are new to trading
  2. They are using a kindergarten-form of “reading price action” as it relates to order flow
  3. They are the type of trader that doesn’t have the proper mindset when it comes to the educational process, primarily because they are looking for shortcuts
  4. Trading psychology is tertiary

I’m a strong proponent of the saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”.
What I mean: Yes, there may be a subset of these “price action traders” who can make money consistently trading kindergarten pinbars only. But, that is all they will ever be- kindergartners.

They will [U]never[/U] proactively enter the market to maximize return whilst minimizing risk. The system simply doesn’t [U][B]ever[/B][/U] call for that to happen. [B] They will always be reactive, never proactiv[/B]e. Over time, the trader who is interacting with the market more times across more timeframes will learn faster and develop a more professional method of trading.

Professionals do not trade 1 timeframe only, simply scanning a price chart 1 time a day for a ridiculaous candlestick signal so they can then work themselves backward into a position. The notion of waiting for an “A+ Setup” is one of the absolute most ridiculous concepts I’ve ever heard tauted across the web. But, these concepts combined provide a safety net for the “get rick quick newbie”.

“Oh, I’m a price action trader of course. I only check the charts 2-3x / day looking for a candlestick pattern to form @ a significant price level in the direction of the trend. I only take A+ Setups.”

So, why is it that these price action threads on most every forum are like revolving doors? New folks get lured in w/ the ease of the methodology, pay the 3-500$ for the PA guru’s course, then disappear into infinity because it’s absurdly boring waiting for your key price action A+ kill zone signal to form 1x / day.

Half most likely wash out and end up over-trading and blowing accounts.
The other half (I’m hopeful) wise up, and move on to big boy strategies and never look back.

[QUOTE=“FOREXunlimited;679585”] So, why is it that these price action threads on most every forum are like revolving doors? New folks get lured in w/ the ease of the methodology, pay the 3-500$ for the PA guru’s course, then disappear into infinity because it’s absurdly boring waiting for your key price action A+ kill zone signal to form 1x / day. [/QUOTE] They should have waited for a Judas swing to occur at the A + kill zone… This setup is definitely worth waiting for especially if confluent with an OTE… :slight_smile:

2 Ema’s for beginners like me to assist, but the focus is on candlesticks and simple setups, learning how to let the trade run when it wants to on the bigger time frames for the big winners. Less trades, more pips. More time away from the screen and out there living life is the theory. :50:

Will check out Chris C’s thread too. Thanks y’all.

EDIT: P.S. Enjoying Capre’s thread. His setups are A+++ lol. Thx Fxu.

Good trading, G

OK, so I would still call his style mixed, but mainly candlestick reading? He is perhaps going further than the “kindergarteners” you mentioned by making assumptions about the depth of the market revealed in candlestick formations. I also see him covering Ichimoku, Pivot Levels, support/resistance.

What I am getting from you is that candlestick readers that do not take in these assumptions about the depth of the market and trade accordingly are getting in too late or not at all?