FXHFT - Daily Market Analysis

AB=CD and 38.2 cap the recent run higher in Aussie

AUDUSD Weekly


The bears have taken out the 61.8 fib at 0.79440 but there has been limited follow through so far after the initial 100 pip dip below this level, the Aussie is seeing some profit taking now with the market back above the 61.8 fib.

AUDUSD H1


Medium term bears have been seen selling into the recent strength on the AB-CD (Light blue) and 38.2 fib that coincided at 0.80150/250. As long as the bears can keep the market below this level the selling pressure is likely to pick up again, however a break above the 0.80250 high will see some further profit taking.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

EURUSD H4


Bears have been selling into the important 1:1 (Yellow) and 23.6 fib that coincided at 1.14440. If this level can continue to attract solid selling interest the bears will look to target stops below the 1.10750 low, however a break back above the 1:1 (Yellow) and 23.6 fib high will see short covering pick up.

Selling intraday rallies bellow 1.14400 and buying intraday dips on a solid close above 1.14500 are the best plays going into weeks end.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

AUDUSD Weekly


The Aussie continues to fall with the market now picking up momentum on the downside as the 61.8 fails to attract solid buying interest.

AUDUSD H1


I mentioned yesterday the importance of the AB=CD (Light blue) and 38.2 fib that coincided at 0.80200/250, this resistance level attracted solid selling interest from the bears with the market now 185 pips lower,

AUDUSD M5


The smart money was seen selling in early London traded on the 1:1 (Light blue) at 0.78800, the market fell 50 odd pips on the back of this resistance level.

The resistance level to watch now is the 1:1 (Purple) that comes in at 0.78850, with the 61.8 fib at 0.79440 now history selling rallies continues to be the best play.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GBPUSD M15


Looking to sell Cable between 1.50700/850 on the 1:1 (Yellow) with a tight stop 10 pips above 1.50830 high. The target is the overnight low at 1.50200.

I will look to bring my stop to break even once the position has moved in my favor by 20-30 pips

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GBPUSD M15


Cable has started to sell off coming into the London session with smart money selling into the 1:1 (Yellow) resistance level. With the market now 25 pips in my favor I have moved my stop loss to breakeven at 1.50815.

My profit target still remains at 1.50200/250 just above the overnight low.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction


The next resistance level to keep a close eye on is the 1:1 (Pink) at 0.78850, with the Aussie in a strong down trend medium term bears will be looking to add to short positions with little support of note on the downside. However the Aussie is heavily oversold so keeping stops tight when selling into any rallies will be the best play, as a break back above the 1:1 (Pink) will likely see short covering pick up.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

NZDUSD Weekly


The selling pressure is likely to pick up on the downside in the Kiwi with the double bottom and 38.2 fib giving way last week. The next major support level is not until the 50 fib that comes in at 0.68640, looking forward selling rallies will be the best play in my opinion.

NZDUSD H1


The smart money has been seen selling every 1:1 (Purple) in the recent leg lower after the AB=CD (Yellow) attracted strong selling interest at 0.78850.

NZDUSD M5


The intraday resistance level to keep a close eye on is the 1:1 (Yellow) at 0.72270. This level will likely attract some selling interest if it is reached, it will be best to keep stops tight when selling any rally with the market already trading outside of its daily average range.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

USDIndex Monthly


The Dollar index has so far found some decent selling with the market off over 100 pips since testing the major 50 fib at 95.85. With the USD heavily overbought across the board could this be the time to short the dollar for an overdue correction. If the dollar however takes out the 50 fib it will be all bets off with nothing but blue sky’s till 101.750.

AUDUSD H4


There was limited follow through on the downside after the Aussie rate was cut by 0.25%, the AUDUSD initially fell 200 pips but the market is now back above levels seen pre rate cut. This is an indication that the market is heavily short Aussie and a large short covering rally could be just around the corner.

However there is an important 1:1 (Light blue) resistance at 0.78900 that could attract some interest from the bears, a break above this level and the momentum on the topside will pick up.

AUSUSD M5


Intraday players have been seen buying Aussie on dips with the recent 1:1 (Blue) attracting the smart money, if this level can continue to find good buying interest the stops above yesterdays high will likely come under attack.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GBPUSD H4


Cable has now formed what looks to be a significant bottom with the market taking out the neck line (Yellow) on the head and shoulders pattern during yesterdays trading session. There is still the important 1:1 (Green) to be mindful of, this technical resistance could attract solid selling from the bears but a break above this level will see short covering pick up and the bulls back in control of this market.

GBPUSD M15


Buying intraday dips going forward will be the best play in my opinion, with the 1:1 (Blue) that coincides with the 50 and 23.6 fibs at 1.52550/600 the level that the smart money will be looking to enter this market. However this could all change with the NFP out later today for the US.

USD INDEX


The 50 fib at 95.80 in the USD INDEX is the reason for the recent turn in global currencies. I mentioned this important resistance level earlier in the week.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GBPUSD H4


Cable continues to find a bid and would now have to be worrying the bears that sold against the trend line (Pink) at 1.53500. A solid close above 1.5350 is needed if the bulls are to test the 1:1 (Green) at 1.54300, a failure to do so however will see a run for stops below 1.51900.

GBPUSD M30


Intraday stops are building both sides of the market with a break likely to see a 20-50 pip run in either direction.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

AUDUSD H4


The Aussie has continued to sell off since the bears were seen selling into the 1:1 (Light blue) and 38.2 fib at 0.78750/800, momentum has picked up on the downside today with the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate missing expectations.

AUDUSD M15


I will be looking to sell into strength on the 1:1 (Light blue) and 23.6 fib at 0.76900 with a tight stop at 0.77050. My first target will be the days low at 0.76430, if momentum picks up on the break of this low I will look to target 0.75000.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GBPUSD Daily


I mentioned earlier in the week that the bears that sold against the trend line (Pink) would be getting worried with the lack of follow through on the downside. The bulls took full advantage of these weak shorts during yesterdays trading session taking out a number of stops above the trend line.

The level to watch now is the 1:1 (Green) that comes in at 1.54200/250, the market has already been seen selling coming into this major resistance level which is now the make or break level for the bears.

If the bears fail to push the market lower at this level the current short covering rally is likely to pick up steam with the next resistance level 100 odd pips above the 1:1 (Green).

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GOLD H4


Medium term bears are looking to target a large number of stops that are likely sitting just below the 50 fib at 1216.50, this support level has seen some buying over the last several days but the market is looking heavy and I would expect this level to be taken out in the coming sessions.

GOLD M5


I will be looking to sell into any strength if the 1:1 – 38.2 (Light blue) at 1224.25 or 1:1 -38.2 (Yellow) at 1225.70 show any sign of weakness.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

GOLD M5



The 1:1 (Light blue) and 38.2 fib that coincided at 1224.00 that I had mentioned in my previous post, has attracted solid selling from intraday players. Some profit taking is being seen now with the failure so far to take out the daily lows.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction


G4I mentioned yesterday that there were likely a large number of stops sitting just below the 50 Fib at 1216.50, see here. These stops were taken out during the NY session with the market falling 100 ticks before profit taking kicked in, the next support level to keep a close eye on is the 61.8 fib at 1198.86.

GOLD M15


Intraday players continue to sell against the 1:1 (Blue) at 1210.30 as long as the market stays below this level look for the overnight low to be tested in the coming sessions. However a break above this level will see some sharp short covering take place.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

SUMMARY:
The major trend of AUD/USD is bearish, but from last few days prices are not sustaining at lower levels. The pair is taking resistance from the psychological level of 0.7830 consolidating & gaining strength to break it upside. Today if the pair breaks 0.7831 & managed to sustain above it, then we can expect it to test the level of 0.7876/ 0.7910 in a day or two.
Prices are taking support of 30 SMA & 200 SMA. RSI is also sustaining in buying territory supporting upside movement in the pair. MACD line has recently break the zero line,indicating the up trend in the market.

STRATEGY :- AUD/USD is looking further bullish on charts. One can go for buy on dips strategy for this pair for intra day to mid term positions.


GOLD M15


Above is a chart of gold that I posted yesterday mentioning the significance of the 1:1 (Blue) at 1210.25. The market traded in a tight range for several hours before breaking to the downside and taking out a number of stop below the 1203.75 low.

GOLD M15


The chart above outlines the 80 tick move in gold as the bears sold aggressively into 1:1 (Blue).

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction

Hi Jack,

I also see the possibility for a sharp short covering rally in the Aussie. The bulls will need to see a solid close above 0.79000 IMO before we see this eventuate.

GOLD H4


Gold has been trading heavily over the last several weeks even after initially finding solid buying interest on the 61.8 Fib at 1198.86. Gold has now taken out a large number of stops below the 61.8 in thin trading conditions.

GOLD H1


As you can see from the chart above the smart money have been selling every chance they got on the 1:1 (Pink) rallies.

GOLD M15


Selling rallies going forward is the best play in my opinion with the next level to keep a close eye on the 1:1 (Yellow) and 50 Fib that coincide at 1197.40/75, this level will likely attract solid selling from the bears looking to target large stops below 1131.60.

  • A 1:1 refers to a current correction being equal in length to a prior correction