What news events are critical?

It seems to me that central bank decisions and central bank speeches (and NFP) are the only major events that can turn markets and trigger daily / weekly trends and breakouts. Most other ‘major’ news releases like inflation, various PMIs, trade balance etc tend to move the market intra-day only, unless a funky figure comes out. Thoughts? Can fundamental analysis be reduced to studying the central banks only?

Central bank policy is reactionary to all the other economic releases. Think of economic releases being clues that provide speculators with an opportunity to figure out what the central banks next move will be. Most central bankers will state that their policy is data dependent… Thus it doesn’t make sense to ignore all the data as it is what forms the policy.

Fundamental analysis for forex should always start with studying the central banks policy… And I’m sure one could be profitable only trading speeches and rate statements… But ideally one will understand the policy and then begin viewing the data releases within that context… Making for a much clearer picture of what is going on and able to anticipate changes to the policy before they occur.

I think the landscape has changed since QE and it seems as if the other reports simply do not matter anymore. Many central banks are all about weakening their currencies so in the end it at least appears that no matter what data will be released central banks will slash rates and print money. Until that changes I think other economic reports mean very little, but then again it depends on strategy and time horizon.

Currency wars have taken a new level after central banks started to overflow the market with money. I do think we are in a far different trading environment then at the start of this millennium.

I’m with you. My favorite quote “Central Bankers are experts at saying nothing” For me I stay away from NFP announcements and interest. I think the picture is much better after the announcements and work from the actual effect on the currency.

Who else do you think influences the market except for ECB and FR?

[QUOTE=“smithhelen;682425”]Who else do you think influences the market except for ECB and FR?[/QUOTE]

HFT FIRMS & dark pools, Private firms banks etc
Market is to big everything effects price / the market…

Are you telling me that you really belive in that crap?

After today. Clearly the Fed is a critical news event haha.

I agree with [B]GlobalMacro, TheLastBear, and Rambo35[/B] entirely :slight_smile:

Excellent question, KevinLaCoste…

[B]Helen Smith:[/B] the People’s Bank of China has a huge job at the moment trying to keep the USD/Yuan within a 2% fluctuation from current price, given the USD strength, which is hurting China…

Also, Chinese GDP has been taking a big hit, and their housing bubble (with ghost building works lying empty) adds to
the trouble… And as Chinese banks reduce their loaning capacity to businesses etc., the booming economy of the last decade looks to be going bust… But a Chinese economy crack would have repercussions all over Western economies (and the Australasian neighbours), so for this reason the People’s Bank of China is also one to watch.

What do YOU think? :slight_smile:

Those that trigger my orders.

-Adrian

It certainly would seem the PBOC is playing a big poker face with a weak hand. But because it broke the ten day range to the downside, and now the 4 week range also, I am short USD/CNH. It is currently my only USD short.

-Adrian

Just thought I would update this thread. After following the central banks for a month, my trading has significantly improved. It makes sense since the central banks are the biggest players in the forex market. Duh!

Good morning everyone!

As I wait for this event by my office window, I ask myself:

could this be the event that will bring in risk aversion, and break the multi-year equities bull ride?

Eclipses and Their Impact on the Market - Astrological Investing

Financial Astrology by Mahendra Sharma

-Adrian

P.S. I don’t believe a stitch, but very entertaining.

I would boil down fundamental trading to US economical releases, namely NFP and Retail sales. Btw, they have a good correlation between each other (even common sense says)

we need analysis well done with crisis or news. it is important . when we has correct analysis. we will get big profit. because market will has big moving when it has news. i usually advoid it.

NFP, interest rate decision, FOMC meeting and any speech from major bank’s head are the important news that drives forex market crazy.