Question on eur/gpb

Trading Discussion
1

Hello
I am trying to make heads or tails on this pair it is hard to get short or long? Any suggestions on this?

2

It’s a tough pair because for long periods the two currencies are being moved by very similar forces. That makes the pair a lot choppier and more random. You’re probably best off trying to wait for the times when they have differing influences - meaning the fundamental situations are at different points.

3

Dear Mike, Rhody has it right: there is a lot of balance between the two currencies, at present, but they are in very different places

for 2015…

It also depends on how you look at this: short-term, medium-term, long-term…

How are you wanting (and why are you wanting) to trade this pair? Are trying to side-step EUR/USD and find a less crowded,

exposed pair?

The correlation between EUR/GBP and EUR/USD is often swapped with correlation with GBP/USD, so it often means uncertainty

as to which pair will pull this cross the most… Like other crosses, you are pulled here between two Majors, and it is hard to

know where direction will come from: EUR/USD is only rising because of US Dollar (composite index) weakness, rather than

Euro strength; GBP/USD was rising due to the post-election relief, but the quarterly inflation report only days later flattened

any gains… The Pound’s strength was zeroed in 2014-2015 when it became clear that interest hikes would be well beyond

what the market had front-run; the USD is going through this phased a little bit later on, but is experiencing a similar

disappointment - a realisation that the forecast (June 2015) rate hike from the Fed may actually not happen until, possibly,

So, how does this leave EUR/GBP traders?

I have written extensively about this pair:

  1. video from 1.5 years ago: Forex: EUR\/GBP long-term technical strategy. ;

  2. 301 Moved Permanently ;

  3. article: EUR/GBP Cycle Window shows upward mobility | Forex Crunch

Unfortunately, my cycle analysis showing a 0.77(50) bottom - and subsequent reversal - was not vindicated! I was wrong,

hands up…

Happy reading!

4

I agree with you about the uncertainty of Eur/Gbp, I will check out those articles.

5

Good evening! I really appreciate the feedback and I am learning a ton form you guys. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

Mike

6

Hey peeterwolf…

I made a new video…