Incidentally, this move that we are seeing (now approaching 2.28) is ‘purely’ technical, or rather not
derived from its source pairs or any fundamentals regarding Pound or Kiwi:
NZD/USD has been loitering between 0.65 and 0.66 for days, and today is no different;
GBP/USD has been dropping last week closer to 1.50 but today has not really done much.
In other words, the GBP/NZD’s down-move today from above 2.30 to nearly 2.28 is not correlated
to either a NZD/USD rise or a GBP/USD fall, and it seems to be from the GBP/NZD pair’s own technical positioning…
Without a fundamental driver from its parent pairs, though, one wonders how this move will find true
follow-through…
DISCUSS
PS: even with the thinning (end-of-year) market, and going toward the Fed rate decision,
that is, with less positioning between now and the next two weeks, it is however in the next
fifteen minutes that we will see the NYSE reopening for business after the Thanksgiving break
on Thursday and Friday last week… While this will not generate trends or fundamental changes,
it will be a welcome return to normality in terms of level of activity and of London/NewYork overlap.
Something else to be cheerful about on St. Andrew’s day
Currently at 2.2884… I hope you are not in a hurry
baz1982
November 30, 2015, 2:31pm
763
I bailed on the position in the end. I was planning on holding it longer term but then decided to day trade it & as the day had already moved a good few pips & I didn’t like the pin-bar on the 5-min chart (it’s a fair wick on it) so I closed out the short for an acceptable profit.
However, from the pin-bar, I took a cheeky long back up to resistance for a win & I’m short again (with a tighter stop) & this one I plan on holding for a few days…maybe.
baz1982
November 30, 2015, 2:49pm
764
Incidentally, this move that we are seeing (now approaching 2.28) is ‘purely’ technical, or rather not derived from its source pairs or any fundamentals regarding Pound or Kiwi: - NZD/USD has been loitering between 0.65 and 0.66 for days, and today is no different; - GBP/USD has been dropping last week closer to 1.50 but today has not really done much. In other words, the GBP/NZD’s down-move today from above 2.30 to nearly 2.28 is not correlated to either a NZD/USD rise or a GBP/USD fall, and it seems to be from the GBP/NZD pair’s own technical positioning… Without a fundamental driver from its parent pairs, though, one wonders how this move will find true follow-through… DISCUSS
I appreciate that fundamentals are what moves the market but I look at everything from a technical stand point. If the outlook is bullish but the chart is still showing lower highs & lower lows then I’ll be looking to sell until the Bulls have made their mark on the charts so a convincing break of a high or something. I’ve not looked at any correlation or anything. Long term, Im bullish but currently I’m now thinking of sell opportunities until we get back above 2.3060
baz1982:
I appreciate that fundamentals are what moves the market but I look at everything from a technical stand point. If the outlook is bullish but the chart is still showing lower highs & lower lows then I’ll be looking to sell until the Bulls have made their mark on the charts so a convincing break of a high or something. I’ve not looked at any correlation or anything. Long term, Im bullish but currently I’m now thinking of sell opportunities until we get back above 2.3060
I like your approach, Barry…
I think the snowy air in Inverness has a lot to be thanked for when it comes to clearing the mind of noise!
I, like Yohec, am still in a heavily position-trading long from a while back… I am locked in for the long term,
come what may
Take note:
8am (GMT) today, Tue. 1st Dec.
Mark Carney press conference after
7am data release, see picture
(source: Bank of England website).
Only 33 minutes to go to the data release from BoE!
Sixteen minutes now to Carney’s press conference…
baz1982
December 1, 2015, 2:59am
769
A bit of a long lie this morning & the charts have done me a solid with my short. It was a 30-pip stop so that’s about 7R just now.
Here’s hoping BoE doesn’t screw me over.
This is a solid run…
Four hundred pips down since the start of the week…
How far will this go?
baz1982
December 1, 2015, 4:22am
772
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;735687”] This is a solid run… Four hundred pips down since the start of the week… <img src=“301 Moved Permanently ”/> How far will this go?[/QUOTE]
Yeah, it’s quite the drop.
I’m hoping that the brakes go on for 2.2500 as after the low of 2.2360 from 15th Oct, it’s another big drop down to 2.1000.
baz1982:
Yeah, it’s quite the drop.
I’m hoping that the brakes go on for 2.2500 as after the low of 2.2360 from 15th Oct, it’s another big drop down to 2.1000.
Yes, it really is a big unknown down there, sub-2.25, like an underground cavern…
Today we have the Global Dairy Trade auction… as the GBP has been pulling away and climbing from 1.50
to about 1.51 (even after the weaker PMI data this morning), all GBP/NZD moves are now in the hands of
NZD/USD, which has been pulling away from 0.65 and supra-0.66: should bad dairy trade data come out
today, we would see a sharp drop in NZD/USD and this is what would feed a GBP/NZD recovery…
The opposite is also possible, which would feed further movement toward 2.25 in GBP/NZD, especially
as Fonterra hopes to revive dairy markets with the unveiling of a premium milk powder at the auction today.
New Zealand Dollar Powers Ahead Amidst Concerns of a ‘Dead Cow Bounce’ in Dairy Prices
The article, published today, covers the relationship between dairy prices/supply and the Kiwi’s prospects,
also as the RBNZ rhetoric suggests one more rate cut this month.
An article to read, definitely!
THE RESULTS ARE OUT!
The sale showed an uptick of +3.6% !
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/
yohec
December 1, 2015, 9:50am
776
It looks like it had no effect on GBP/NZD.
baz1982
December 1, 2015, 10:11am
777
I do love this pair. Sell at 50%/resistance & aim for the low - easy money. I can see it going a bit lower but the days range so far is enough for me.
I’ve got my original short trade open too, I’ll hold that for 2.2500.
UKkev
December 1, 2015, 10:42am
779
baz1982:
I do love this pair. Sell at 50%/resistance & aim for the low - easy money. I can see it going a bit lower but the days range so far is enough for me.
I’ve got my original short trade open too, I’ll hold that for 2.2500.
Bouncing off your Moving average beautifully
You, on the other hand, are free to swap sides at will, intra-day. Good on you!
