Price is consolidating. Which is cool, because expansion is soon to follow.
Hello traders! I will be watching the ‘Big Short’ later this morning at the cinema 
Meanwhile, since Tuesday, the Pound has risen about 400 pips, while the Kiwi about 250: so why, one might ask, has GBP/NZD been p i s s i n g a b o u t all over the charts?
It is now struggling around 2.19, not sure what to do with itself: there is clearly a Pound bid, and this would normally help GBP/NZD, but since Gov. Wheeler spoke earlier this week there has also been a Kiwi bid. With GBP/NZD being mostly correlated to the Kiwi/Dollar, rather than the Pound/Dollar, this is not at all surprising, and the Pound’s modest rise has been more of a USD-fuelled move, given the Greenback’s slump yesterday from its seemingly solid 12,200 holdout…
I doubt that the BoE’s data later today (midday, GMT) will do much for Sterling, but you just never know…
Happy Trading
The pair is rising towards 0.6800, I think. A breakout above that level would indicate a further rally towards the next level of resistance around 0.6820.
[QUOTE=“mlawson71;746884”]The pair is rising towards 0.6800, I think. A breakout above that level would indicate a further rally towards the next level of resistance around 0.6820.[/QUOTE]
I’ll keep my eye out for it. It’s looking good.
Hello traders!
For the third week in a row, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders report last Friday showed a growing open positioning volume for net-shorts on the Kiwi, which
once more ties in with the relationship between this similar turn in May 2015 and the decline seen back then in NZD/USD.
The above screenshot was taken from Oanda’s
COT website, and relates only to non-commercial traders.
Hello traders!
The COT report last Friday showed growing short positioning on Kiwi for the fourth week in a row:
The next Kiwi down-turn is coming 
Hello Kiwi traders!
Remember that tomorrow, Tuesday 16th February 2016, will be the
Global Dairy Trade auction, which may be hugely influential for the
Kiwi exchange rate…
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/
You can see from the above website’s graph that SIX of the last EIGHT
auctions have been negative, so if El Niño’s effects and global over-supply
will continue to add further down-pricing to New Zealand’s dairy farmers,
many of them will struggle to stay in the game… Add to that the slowdown
of the Chinese economy and the effect that this has had on New Zealand’s
exporting volume to that nation, and you will see how easy it would be to
expect further clouds on the horizon.
…by Sam Coventry, in which she covers a number of key (fundamental and technical) points:
Published on Monday 15th February.
Hello Yohec,
indeed…
I am absolutely disgusted at the way in which markets are conducting themselves…
The S&P500 lost its ground in January, coming down from record highs, and… now it refuses to break that
1,800 handle… Indeed, all equities (and Yen crosses) have regained ground this week, as some kind of
desperate last gasp before the inevitable fall into the abyss that awaits these overinflated assets…
Interesting how (in my opinion) GBP/NZD has become sensitive to this ‘risk-off’ sentiment, as though
its run up from April 2015 had somehow been tied to speculative, ‘risk-on’ capital markets… Yes, we
could dig up the story that it was the bad old British Pound to drag down the GBP/NZD, but I do not buy
it, because pairs like EUR/GBP have not risen so dramatically, so I think that aggressive selling in GBP/NZD
has a dynamic that is more tied to a ‘risk-off’ sentiment than anything concerning the Kiwi or the Pound…
This begs the question: if, say, the major equity indices (such as the S&P500 and Nikkei225) were to capitulate
and break below current psychological hold-outs, would GBP/NZD also hammer down past that all-important 2.15?
Would it look past any upcoming Kiwi weakness and continue its journey south regardless?
The only saving grace for long-term resumption of the April-September 2015 uptrend would be a collapse of
the Kiwi, and/or some kind of incredibly positive surprise from the UK employment, inflation, and retail/expenditure
data… all of which seems less likely in the medium term than a continuation of the early-2016 ‘risk-off’ sentiment
and, therefore, more selling pressure on GBP/NZD…
As you say, Yohec, ‘the next few days will be very interesting’, to which I would add ‘the next few weeks/months’…
I’ve taken a smallish size long position on GBP/NZD at 2.1533. I’m gambling that the 2.1500 support will hold. But I’ll cut my losses if it reaches 2.1400.
Its taken me a while to break the very successful habit of going long, but now im trading slightly short time frames (a couple of days on average instead of 8) so I find myself switching between long and short, but its working out ok for now
Pip,
I imagine that large gap at the open had everything to do with the BREXIT talk the past couple of days. Now that GBP/NZD crossed below 2.1500, it will be interesting to see if this level will now act as resistance.
I’m guessing that the gap will be filled quickly and price will go back to 2.16 - 2.17 area. So I just took my profits and closed GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD. I’m going to step back and watch from the sidelines.
I continue to back the Pound because the deals in the City are conducted in Sterling and until business there is good, the Pound is the currency to back against, say, the Euro. However, on a technical and medium-term, the drop in GBP/NZD looks genuine and 2.12 should be the new support area, if indeed this is where things can turn around.
Pushing 2.11 now, incredible. I expected a drop but not this far so soon. Im over 1000 pips up on GnpNzd and GbpAud today
Five weeks net-short from non-commercials: last Friday’s COT report is clear, but…when will NZD/USD crack lower?
