Predicting the forex is like death, you never can say 100 procent when someone is going to die. If the person is very sick (country going bad) then you can have a cleu. But that’s it…if indicators had some real prediction everyone would you use it, if signals would work for monthly subscription then they wouldnt advertise for this but use this for them self. Lets face it, there are always a few lottery winnars and a lot of losers, like the forex:16:
That’s an unusual way to put it but I guess you’ve got a point. Uncertainty will always be present in the forex market but there are some good clues every now and then, so traders typically work on sharpening their skills to interpret these clues and act on it with profitable trade setups.
I agree completely.
The proportion of “[U]successful[/U] forex traders using indicators” is a tiny fraction of the proportion of “forex traders using indicators”, and of course there are reasons for that.
It’s a thorny subject, though, mostly because people discussing this in forums use the word “prediction” with (at least) two very different meanings.
Here’s the thing: we don’t need to be able to “predict” the outcomes of [U]individual[/U] forex trades, to make a living from trading forex.
All we need to do (given adequate money-management and trade-management skills, and that’s an enormous assumption!) is to be able to predict to a small, overall, [U]collective[/U], statistical degree of outcome-probability.
For example, if you have a method with the same sized TP and SL, net of dealing costs, and it has a win-rate of 54% and a loss-rate of 46%, you can make a living from it - if its trading-opportunity frequency is high enough - simply because out of every 100 trades you use it for, you’ll emerge [I]on average[/I] with 8 net-profitable trades.
Some people think of that as “predicting”; others don’t.
And most of the different perceptions about the issue, and therefore the traditional forum discussions on this subject, revolve around people’s different perceptions of precisely that question.
In the end, it doesn’t matter how you, or I, or anyone else defines “prediction”: the outcomes are inevitably both mathematical and objective.
The reality, of course, is that most amateur traders are losing money rather than making it, and that’s commonly because their statistical/probabilistic understanding isn’t up to the task they’re trying to achieve: either their methods don’t actually have a net positive expectation at all (and that’s very often the case), or if they do, they’re mismanaged on the trade-management/position-sizing front so that the available overall profits don’t actually materialize (and that’s very often the case, too).
And all of that, of course, is without mentioning psychology and emotion at all …
Success in any field is a small number so why should forex be different? The problem is that forex is so easily accessible that many think it takes less to succeed than in other highly skilled professions which is wrong.
That does not make it bad, it simply is in the same category as pro-sports for example. Just because you can go out and play basketball on the court does not mean you will play in the NBA.
I think the mindset of the OP is the one which leads to the rank of the 98% who fail as traders, but that’s just my opinion.
I cant tell if he is saying that its impossible to be successful because he is not having a good experience or just trying to warn new traders that its not easy