I have been trading forex for couple of months. Trying to learn as much as possible from everyone on baby pips.
Today, I took 3 trades right after the GBP GDP (1 trade - Sell GBPUSD) release and USD Consumer confidence (2 trades, Sell USDJPY , BUY AUDUSD) result released, trying to get some easy money. However ask my trade reach sl
GDP is lower than expectation (GBP suppose to fall) and Consumer confidence is also lower than expectation(USD suppose to fall), why are these trades goes the other way ??
With G/U it previously would have been a good trade as lately any rallies (up towards 1.55 anyway) have been strongly kicked back when data came in softer than expected - mostly off the back of interest rate hike expectations receding. It’s possible that this time the market didn’t see the data as being all that bad and that the market expectations for rate hikes is fairly settled so the softer data today was shrugged off.
Can’t really comment too much on the other two trades as I don’t really follow those pairs much. But with FOMC on Wednesday and BOJ on Friday trades are probably keeping their powder dry for those and not paying as much attention to other data as they would otherwise. Also I’d say with A/U at least that the market is generally following more of a risk on / risk off approach. If equities are going well I’d expect A/U to follow suit given that it’s a commodity currency and their exports do well when the global economy is in business. If equities are soft like today across Asia, Europe & US then I’d expect A/U to drop.
Hi there, I think that should serve a good lesson for you to learn about trading the news. It’s a well known fact that no one can determine which direction the price might go before any type of news-be it low or high impact news. If that was possible, every one would be trading the news.
Even when the news is positive, there is no guarantee that the affected asset price would rise. You saw a good example today. The best thing to is let the price lead you to the impact of the news, not news leading you to the price.
Very good point, Renko. It is always important to not rush into the hype from news. Let the price lead your decisions, not the news. Good luck trading.
The Euro may have carved out a near-term bottom against the British Pound as expected after breaking above falling trend resistance set from mid-October. Prices produced a bullish Morning Star candlestick coupled with positive RSI divergence, pointing the pair was set to turn higher after finding support below the 0.70 figure.
Near-term resistance is at 0.7057, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis clearing the way for a challenge of the 23.6% level at 0.7103. Alternatively, a reversal below the November 18 low at 0.6982 opens the door for a test of the July 17 bottom at 0.6930.
From a long-term perspective, the overall EUR/GBP trend appears to continue favoring the downside. As such, we will treat on-coming gains as a retracement offering a selling opportunity within the larger descent. In the meantime, we will remain flat.
