Where can i find the average pips range of high and medium impact news
Any information or website links that help me
Thank you
Kathy Lien did a study of that question for her book [I]Day Trading the Currency Market[/I] (Wiley, 2005). The data she tabulated in that book (gathered in 2004) was [B]for EUR/USD only,[/B] and showed average pip moves [B]for U.S. news releases only.[/B]
In her later book, [I]Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market[/I] (Wiley, 2009), she updated the average pip moves (using 2007 data), [B]again for EUR/USD reacting to U.S. news releases.[/B]
Here is a screen shot of her 2009 table.
Obviously, this is only a tiny (and out-of-date) glimpse of currency market reactions to news.
Surely, somebody has produced a comprehensive table of pip moves for [U]all the major currency pairs[/U], reacting to [U]U.S. and international news releases[/U] — but, I’ve never seen it, and an internet search has failed to find it.
.
welcome, and Happy New Year!
Clint is spot on… and, by the way,
he quotes the first Forex book that
I ever bought and read, which I would
recommend…
As for pip range in reaction to various
news, Clint is right (he is an encyclopedia
of knowledge, after all)… May I ask why you
are interested in this particular datum (singular
of ‘data’: pedant alert!).
I am only asking because from my limited experience
(three years in September) the pip impact of certain news
can change, depending on market expectation and
market conditions: also, scrolling through economic
calendars by various websites (MyFxBook, DailyFX,
Investing, to name some), the same event may be
classified by some as having a ‘medium’ impact, and
by others as having a ‘high’ impact, which means that
even among professional analysts there is not always
a consensus on the expected impact of economic data.
What this means is that it is difficult to predict the pip
range on any trading instrument, and that an historic
table (like Kathy Lien’s) should be used with caution
going forward: I would suggest that, if used to set
trading ranges (stops, for example), it were used in
conjunction with something like the ATR for that
currency pair, to put some context around those
pip moves…
Not all news is born equal, but also, even a piece of
news that is usually market-moving (e.g. Non-Farm
Payrolls) may have a muted impact during low-liquidity
market times, or if the markets overlook it in anticipation
of an even bigger event the next day…
Do you trade the news?
Clint and pipmehappy great answers
Happy new year guys
I think yes the news is important thats how economic and politic news ride the market in short term and long term it is good to know the outcome numbers of news reports and using it as one indicator itself,
I dont like to trade something only base on indicators and some moving averages i think i need to understand more of news too and how many pips they can effect the market for how long ,i need that kind of information , its like stock or any businesses news important
This is how pro traders know the breakout , they know what they do they use all info
Maybe im still wrong but i like to know it
I think a lot of the claims made around trading the news are little more than smoke and mirrors.
Pro traders know little more than good retail traders, and a lot of the movements we see before, during, and immediately after the news is conducted by algorithms, humans simply cannot digest the news and react quickly enough. Since the algorithms have to be set in advance of the news, a lot of guesswork and presumptions have to be made.
The algorithms trigger one another, say price drops 50 pips so some algorithms are set to sell further while others are set to buy at this cheaper price. Depending on the relative numbers of buys and sells, price eventually stops spiking and moves in one direction, and human buyers are able to trade since prices are now stable enough for their broker to complete the trade. Unfortunately for retail traders in particular, by the time this has happened (and I’m only talking minutes or even seconds) the real profits have already been made.
[QUOTE=“Markaria400;739988”]Where can i find the average pips range of high and medium impact news Any information or website links that help me Thank you[/QUOTE]
Check out the bars. Often a wide range bar. The key is to find out what happens after and trade accordingly.
Many times price begins to trend 2-3 hours prior to a release in the Eurozone. Unfortunately, I am sawing z’s at that time so I can be energized to swipe a clock and make money for someone else…???
Na zdrowie,
Tim
Critical thinking about what kind of knowledge one should acquire, I will claim are essential
for a trader’s development.
Such is is Kathy Lien book (Day Trading the Currency Market).
[B]A learning book how to be a loser in forex.[/B]
One must not forget that the book is written when kathy Lien worked for FXCM.
*
One does not need much IQ to understand that that Kathy Lien’s agenda is to promote forextrading.
The book is full up with futile information about forex.
At best, work book as a general encyclopedia.
[B]The worst thing about the book is that it is a textbook how to be a loser in forex.[/B]
[U]My claim you are doomed to lose in forex if you are trying to acquire the knowledge kathy lien conveys in her book.[/U]
It is obvious that the lady is an analyst not a trader.
Ps Pipmehappy is a living evidence of my statement ,happy new year
I believe its risky and hard to understand and trading the news from what i listen and watch from you guys and global traders but its definitely profitable i think maybe there is way to deal with it to find the edge
Newsreleases are very unimportat if you want my opinion. Trading the news will get you very poor in very short time. What counts is the peoples ideas and psychology.
For example, the ECB announced a quatative easing program to be expanded by 20% - which in babypips terms of use should mean the euro looses its value, the dax goes up etc etc.
check out what happemend 3rd of december 2015 (the day of the news release) dax minus 600 points (3,8%) euro/usd ups by (i dont know how much, but a lot).
So the only thing that could have made u some profits is if you very veryyy quick, very unbiased onto the direction while or before the news were released and you held trades only minutes. its a game of russian roulette with one bullet in the gun, you can win 5 times some money, but the 6th time will cost you.
If you need a schedule (and indicator of importance of the news - not by average pips but importance in general) you can check out this:
gives you axact release times and (with the !!!) the importance of the news onto the released country/economy/currency
The pro traders wait a day or two after the major news release to act. Noone acts on the news day except what the CoT report calls the “dump money”
Im sorry if i sound so negative, but i tried it 6 years ago. Its gamble, nothing but gamble. and if You gamble on stocks your going to ship wreck fast. Even thou i dont now you personaly id like you to not have that experience.
Mostly computer algorithms. Ive seen things that im not sure if you have seen them. The DAX falling 300 POINTS (+2%) within 20 seconds, just in order to come back again within 2 minutes doing 300 points plus. If Your chart provider is a very strong one then you should check out the DAX on the 15th of January in the one minute bar, there you will see one minute -300 Points, the following minute +300 Points. You tell me now: this would have made you money? You would have earned on that movement?
Check out Apple chart, the same thing happened. but there even worse, apple fell by 10 Dollars in one minute, just to come back within another minute again doing 10 dollars pus.
Do You know what that was? i do, but i wont share my knowledge with a baby that thinks that trying to insult people will get him any benefits in life or make him look smart.
And the topic of the initiator is to trade the news, you just in your own statement said it very intelligent (i guess that was luck) where you said the big players WAIT for the news to act 
If you knew what a big player is then youd understand that putting up billions from funds into a market or whatever doesnt go in one second like you do with your daytrading. For every long contract there must be a short contract in return, so you tell me, where will you find a guy that is ready to enter a 5 billion short contract against your long contract within 2 seconds? You have any clue what youre taking about or what a big player is? It works kind of different then you think, a big player has to wait for the currency to go down, only then he is able to buy the contracts from the small guys in order to go long with huge sums. You cant throw billions into anything and expect it to be fulfied within seconds, it takes days, days in which people like you think “oh the peak has been reached, i must get rid of my long contracts, i sell to that idiot guy who is waving around with 5 bilion and buying any long contracts he can get”.
Sincerely
I agree wholeheartedly!!
Often the concept of ‘trading the news’ creates much debate, the reality each and every one market participant, from the tiniest retail to the largest institution acting on behalf of the largest economic entity (USA/PRC) are doing exactly that, we are all trading the news - that is exactly what the market is, different people each with their interpretation of the news.
Others say they are following TA, reality TA is following the news, it is what it is and no amount of argument will change it.
Torulf is side tracking on Lien, I remember well her partner saying how he got ‘handed his head to him on a plate’ likely on a news day, then again books are a reasonably secure means of revenue in an unsecure market.
It would be strange for a ‘pro’ trader (I’m guessing meaning is an institutional) not to position before news,
Couple of other things, algos are just part of the positioning, you set the scene from the utterances of the CB participants, most of them (excl PRC) have a sense of ego, they already know the numbers before release.
The algo has no intelligence, it awaits that from, not it’s creator who is a maths guy and knows little of news sentiment, rather it’s operator - he has positioned and is awaiting the news outcome and then sets the algo to work.
One other thing on news, if there is a scene being set, say maybe there is talk of an increase in interest rates in UK, we await cpi, but before cpi we need to know retail sales, an increase there could well lead to and increase in cpi, and the Carney has suggested they are watching prices - before retail sales it so happens that the BRC release their retail sales before the ONS - same applies to most of the trades - (maybe also ego).
This is how to learn ‘news’ trading, learn how position.
Great posts, Peterma, as always!!
I competely agree to what You said, but the difference is if You take your actions minutes after a major news release, seconds/minutes before a major news release.
The big guys (Pro traders as its easier to tipe pro then to tipe every time, institutional, hedger, funds, companies that secure themselves in an international trade against currency fluctuations etc etc.) position themseves when they see a good point to position. If a month before a press relase there were good signs of things changing, or staying the way they are (basicly a good opportonity to jump in) then they did, on the day of the news they are already fairly in plus and can easily survive a votality of 300 pips plus or minus. Other guys, institutional, they dont act according to news or a profit interest. lets assume a ship producer has a contract of delivering 15 newly build ships to a chinese company which will pay them with rimimbi with a fixed price of XYZ, then they put up a “insurance” that the values of the - or to say - the EXCHANGE value of Dolas Vs Remimbi stays the same. Their main business is to earn money on producing ships, not on specualting if the exchange value will change. Now lets calculate a ship of worth of 100million each ship, 15 ships is 1.5 bilion, its a contract worth 1.5 billion in the favour of Remimbi. a “short position”. Now in case the dollar gets valued higher due to whatever reason you can imagine, the ship producer, while he is delivering his ships 3 years later after he set up his contract, is delivering the ships for a price set up 3 years earier in rimimbi, but the value has changed, so he in fact gets less dollars for the production of those 15 ships - but hey, thats what he had guessed, he initiated a short position before, so now he gets less dollars - YES - but on the trade he initiated 3 years ago he earned exactly the amount which he is now getting less in the production and delivery of ships. this way he insured his profits on building ships.
(god im tiping a lot today, sorry)
Those and others r all categorised as “pro” traders. in this case it is not the target to gain money on a trade, the target is to secure himself against fluctuations which can after 3 years make a profitable contract unprofitable (russia did not do this while they introduced a 900 billion dollar contract with china delivering oil and gas over 20 years through a joint venture pipeline between sibiria and china, and their trade will be unprfitable over the next 20 years as prices of oi dumped to todays 35$ and the roube lost 60% of its value in year only). This company which has 1.5 bilion contract set in USD/Remimbi does not care for the news of today, they will not go out or in the market just because the news changed, it is not their interest. They stick to their 1:1 leverage contract untill their ship building/selling deal is over.
The same goes for when boing sells airplanes worth of 900 million to japan, or Airbus sels airplanes worth of 2 bilion to US-companies/government.
Everyone here likes to forget why the foreign exchange market exists and what its purpose is. the purpose is not to make money on dealing desks for private use etc. it is a insurance tool which was developed after the introduction of free floating currencies.
Such transactions happen daily in the forex market, they make up 99% of all transactions (by sum, not by transactions count) in all forex markets, the 1% left are brokers like fxcm dailyfx and their day traders.
A big news change will not necesarrily start an immediate change in the currency. 2 weeks ago the FED announced higher interest rates, thats a game changer for forex markets but what happened? the dollar first gained value and then 4 days in row lost value again - according to logic of daytraders this should be impossibe.
as i said, i completely agree to what you said, but i think theres a little bit more behind it all that makes the markets move and perform the way they do. All i was trying to say in the posts before this one in this topic is that trading the news as they r beeing released will cost you a lot. Just like im saying “putting a bullet through your head will most probably kill you” i know there were examples where people survived but i dont need to explain the mehanical parts of a gun to undermine my simple statement, everyone is free to agree or disagree with me in this case, i only want a good conversation here and there - therefore i thank you for your post peterma.
Great post, TurboNero …
Thank You PipMeHappy!
The reason why i was a bit agressive in the post You answered on was simply that the guy i was answering to was trying to be very unfriendly and trying to put his ego up ith agressive tone. thats why my tone in the post You answered on was not so friendly. In the meantime, the post i ansared on with my previous post got deleted so its a bit out of context why i am a bit agressive there.
I have to modify my opinions on this forum too many faint,
Let rephrase some of my last post who become censured … pipmehappy report all I wrote
So turbonero .
[B]Let me repeat you last sentence The pro traders wait a day or two after the major news release to act. Noone acts on the news day except what the CoT report calls the “dump money”
[/B]
Mostly computer algorithms you answer . Who runs the computer algorithms , monkeys or pro trader companies !!!
[I]Peterma have confirmed what every up-going person know…
[/I]
[B]Strange you are agree with Peterma is complete opposite of what you self wrote…
[/B]
[B]To correct other wrong statement from you 99 % of all price movement coming from trading ,WRONG WRONG currency speculators move the market 80-90 % . …
[/B]
[I]Daily fx market is around 5,5 trillion $ about 230 billion every hour so 5 billion is average 2,1 % a hour volume . 5 billion during av day under a per mille of the daily market volum
So sellers will “ almost “ always meet buyers and opposite …even with 5 billion .
A standard retail platform you can order 1000 Sl in one click , 100 million in one click
[/I]
ten click one billion