My new FreeFX special issue video: is 2016 bearish?

Hello traders!

As the first week of the new trading year takes shape, I have released my new trading video:

It is a monster seventy minutes of comments and analysis on anything from Yen crosses,
Gold, US Oil, the Majors (Cable, Kiwi-Dollar, Euro-Dollar) and some crosses, focusing on
the current bearish market sentiment in equities and other assets.

Comments welcome!

Enjoy.

Happy Trading (and happy new year)!

Well,so far it has indeed been a bearish start of
the year for indeces, commodities (except Gold,
for example), and Yen-crosses…

China just announced that it will not reverse its one-child policy, as it had alluded to before Christmas, at least for another two, even three decades… This will compound the ageing working population and confine its real economic growth… Despite speculatory Yuan-Dollar rate management and the abandonment of stock exchange circuit breakers, investment in China is tied to its real economic prospects: if the slowdown of this economic powerhouse should show no signs of reversing, 2016 could be the year of major financial restructuring…

Risk Aversion is already here: a burst bubble is expected

but not inevitable.

Be prepared.

Crude Oil has just broken below $32 …

CAD, Yen-crosses, and equities are diving…

Risk Aversion will be a great opportunity, and

one not to be wasted… :slight_smile:

US Crude Oil now at $29.50…

and FTSE100 nearing 5,800 …

I smell risk aversion…

We have the US-Rig count comming out today. if a few rigs were closed due to low prices we might see the oil price go up (for a hour or two, then down again). other then that atm theres nothing to do with oil, if you dont think/trade in time periods of months and year then doing oil is close to trying to catch a falling knife. the next opec meeting is only due in june, so 5 months of nothing going on nothing changing. even US barrel hoarding count doesnt change anything anymore. a week ago it was minus 5 million barrels hoarded (suggesting an increase in usage of oil) but the price dropped by 5%. in the past at least those numbers kind of pushed the oil price but at the moment absolutely nothing is pushing the oilprice into any direction except down. pessimissm has spread its tenatcles over oil and doesnt let it go.

we have a complete sell out due to extreme pessimissm which isnt reflecting the true value/price of oil.
one funny fact i heard this week; a barrel oil at the moment in india is cheaper then a barrel of clean water.
that tells you very clearly how undervalued oil is right now, but the people see no positive sides so all they think of is short short short. it needs a good kick to brake this downward spiral but i dont see anything as a good kicking to come up anytime soon besides the next opec meeting in june.

by the way; very good video you made there, i like a lot. congratss