Proof that nobody really has a clue what they're talking about

Trading Discussion
1

When it comes to predicting the markets, some will say it’s possible within some aspect, others will say the market is random and others will say it’s random short term but predicable long term.

I follow a several dozen “professional” forex traders and websites like fxstreet, forexfactory, dailyfx and others and one thing I see in nearly every single tweet or on every single website is something like that following.

USD/CAD breaks lowest since January and with the outlook of heading further south as oil prices pick up. Although a rebound at 1.4000 could see an upside of 1.4500

Does anyone else see this as the most ridiculous attempt at pretending you know what you’re talking about? It’s like saying here is this coin, it’s landed on heads 3 times and if it lands on heads, that will make it 4 although if it lands on tails, then it will be 3:1 as a possible rebound for tails.

It’s so stupid EVERY single tweet or forex news article basically gives a 50/50 outcome. Either it will go up or down… well of course because that’s the only options it has…

It just seems nobody really knows what they’re talking about.

2

That is why I follow noone … :slight_smile:

3

Well said ,I think nothing predictable , and the time is gone and running , you have to be on the chart with your analyses and history of chart is there , learning from that and do it at moment everything that is going to happen

Its like people know how to drive a car but still not sure if they can do this

4

Even if you can find a journalist or analyst who strongly “predicts” any movement, somewhere in that same organisation one of his colleagues will “predict” the opposite. That way, whatever happens, they can claim that they “predicted” it.
You get the same in every tabloid on the planet, on a diverse range of other subjects.

5

I agree

but

is forecasting not the science of probability

rather than just sheer luck?

The same with mathematical models used

for weather forecasting,

you cannot blame weather forecasters if

they get it wrong: they use probabilistic

modelling to predict what is

the most likely outcome going forward.

Your analysis is no less valid, but i think that

some of the major analysts get paid for what

they do, so they are likely to have more time

to specialise in their craft of carving out

what the most highly probable outcomes may

be…

Find a source that you like and value, and follow them:

I have been following John Kicklighter for about two years

and he trades as well as analyses fundamentals/technicals

for currency markets (as well as equities), and provides two

videos every day, including on Saturdays, free on DailyFx.com

He has so much knowledge, and yes, he too sometimes gets

on the wrong side of the markets (and is honest enough to tell

his listeners how and why he got it wrong)… Therefore you appreciate

him even more for that…

To summarise: the fact that analysts may ‘get it wrong’ sometimes does

not mean that their commentary serves no purpose… While we should all

do our analyses, it is worth looking into at least one other person’s analysis,

because it may give us an angle on a chart or market scenario that we had

not considered…

That is how I approach this, anyway :slight_smile:

6

you surprised the people on tv have no clue? if they had they wouldnt be on tv talking trash.

lets face it what every sucessfull trader needs to make to his own agenda: “i know the best everyone else sux and has no clue”

it sound stupid and very conceited but it is a attitude that you must have in markets.

I dont listen news, i dont watch news realeases. i watched the news releas in durable goods order yesterday because i was stupid. after the news i went out of the market, today i would have been 450 points plus and i bitt my own ass for crossing my own rule of not even checking what the news say. now im despirately like an idiot looking for a good place to enter but the quotation is running away from me im running after it like a tram trying to catch it.

according to the gurus on tv were all either ****ed or its going to go great our entire life, just like u said they say “yes, no, it goes up… eh i mean down, but eventualy after it went down, it will go up again except it goes down further… eh yes we reached the peak i think, unless it crosses some line then we have a new peak… eh u know ehh bla bla…” -no **** sherlock.

i simply dont read anything on anything. u have your major fundamentals which dont change daily you have charts, why do you need comments of some people in a news blog or a web page or tv for? they only distract you from the important thing.

the only thing i sometimes read is this forum but not to get some ideas onto how to trade but rather to see what problems other people are facing and what their attempts are in trading.

i know i sound like a arrogant smart ass right now but really, dont listen to other people. its ur perspective f things ur decition to enter the market or not to and only your actions, you need to have a mind set up on its own to be able to hold onto your decition untill you get rewarded profits.

7

great comparison

8

those guys are not professional traders but professional talkers :slight_smile: They have to talk or write to be paid, I doubt some of them even trade at all.

9

I have written for Forexcrunch without getting paid… I would not change the style of what I write

if I got paid, but of course, who would not like to get paid to write about the markets that they

follow every day? The fact that the analysts at retail brokerages get paid to produce materials

does not make them any less valuable… They are not trying to sell you their product…

Having said that, the staff at DailyFX (the research arm of FXCM), like Kathy Lien (former Chief

Strategist) and John Kicklighter (current Chief Strategist), and others too (like Ilya Spivak,

Michael Boutros, etc.), are traders and trade with their own money…

Making a living out of trading is just as hard to do as, say, for a performer to make a living

out of playing music… There is nothing wrong with teaching and writing for traders, just like

for musicians, in order to diversify your income stream… I do at least three jobs, for example,

as a self-employed musician, and just because I do not live entirely from playing music then

that does not make me ‘less’… The reality of traders is they have to eat, and maybe own a

house, and even have babies, just like musicians, just like everyone else: the fact that they

are trying to use their knowledge to teach others or comment on the markets does not mean

that they are clueless, deceptive individuals out to make money out of the newbie traders’

credulity…

Of course we must take their comments with a pinch of salt, but if you do not like what they

are saying or think they are not helping your trading, then, as TurboNero rightly says, avoid

listening to or reading their analyses altogether… It is your choice.

PEACE :slight_smile:

I am off to drink some vino!

Happy weekend!

10

This is why I follow price. It’s the only real truth.

This market is going down. What more do you want?

Down Market.jpg700×316 10.8 KB

11

Why is there a random line break between every line of text?? :17:

12

Absolutely. The stuff that really works is kept hidden mostly – If the people who actually know what’s going on were super popular and blabbing it all out then the methods they use to exploit everyone else would stop working. Not in their best interest.

The public faces are some times to paid to confuse ignorant affluent people for a prize – but usually it’s just that most of them actually don’t know. It’s a field of ignorance–and ignorance is the source of profit. That’s human history.

Btw I’m not an expert nor wealthy–but I do like to think about things :slight_smile:

13

Hey hey,

A music teacher/ trader … Music is more reliable as primary income for me at my present stage in development. :slight_smile:

You do any meditation/breathing exercises before you trade?

14

Ah, welcome to the fold :slight_smile:

No, I do not: I hold trades for months, so it is not intensive or stressful (like it may be for day trading)…

What is your trading style, at the moment?

15

My style is…practicing (I really don’t trust myself as consistent enough to trade much live beyond small amounts!)

Usually swing trades based on historical data setups. Patterns within patterns showing the likelyhood of failure or not. I keep pretty busy with music and other things so I weave in and out of how much I’m involved with it–although I have plunged a good bit of time into research and practice both demo and live funds it’s really my psychological consistency I’m aiming toward refinement of. That’s harder than most challenges I’ve ever faced in my life.

16

Very good point of view, objective thinking, it deserves attention.

17

I’m pretty strong at thinking and looking at things objectively. Acting objectively with grand consistency–that’s a bit more of a challenge. Part of my self improvement path :slight_smile: