If the UK stays in EU you’ll make some insane pips. As a UK citizen I am sure we won’t leave the EU as we’ve been beating at this bush for years but never leave.
I’m just not sure if it’s too early to get in the trade now as the referendum isn’t until June. What do you guys think? This could be the biggest trade of our lives in terms of pip gain per trade.
Definitely worth watching. Thank you
The only problem with big-picture scenarios like this is that not many people will be prepared to act on their analysis and enter a year-long trade, worrying about drawdowns and getting bored with sitting on that trade for months, potentially with their entire trading capital tied up with it…
There are examples of this and other pairs getting close to historic lows and spending an entire year going absolutely nowhere…
So, picking bottoms like this is not for everyone…
[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;750726”]The only problem with big-picture scenarios like this is that not many people will be prepared to act on their analysis and enter a year-long trade, worrying about drawdowns and getting bored with sitting on that trade for months, potentially with their entire trading capital tied up with it… There are examples of this and other pairs getting close to historic lows and spending an entire year going absolutely nowhere… So, picking bottoms like this is not for everyone…[/QUOTE]
Picking shoulders is easier and more profitable.
no and no. not easier and not more profitable.
the longer the trades the more profitable they are. i aswell used to think like you long ago.
Buffet said it good: Stocks (trading) is the transferation of capital from the unpatient to the patient one.
Bravo!!!
That’s definitely something to keep in mind, but I’m usually too scared to trade fundamentals. Too many spikes and whipsaws for my comfort.
I am waiting for the best profit of my Life. Although I have made many times high profits , As a human being searching for more and more I want to get best skills to make best profits . I avoid Risky trading without any plan , hope one day all my dreams will come true.
June 23rd will certainly make for a crazy day trading… The problem is knowing when to come in !!! Certainly, there will be a hesitancy to put to much money on the GBP until the decision of the UK is known, but wait to long and you could miss some strong gains on what would be a strong bull market if the UK do stay in.
I strongly believe the UK won’t leave the EU. Therefore about a month before the elections I’m probably going long.
Brave but potentially hugely rewarding, I was actually debating similar options myself, shall see by the polls about two weeks before though 
- Whos your broker by the way, the one i am with give rubbish rollovers…
Everybody of you keep in mind that George Soros already once made 1 billion profit on USD/GBP in one single day while everyone else thought “the GBP wont go down much further” one guy showed that it can go further down.
Trade after the news, dont burn you hands, dont guess what will happen, just take actions after the “fundamentals” happened. UK has a 100 years old track record of making crutial mistakes that in the end hurt UK it self the most.
my advice
I agree with Turbo…
We have seen it so many times… Remember the Aussie-Dollar? Cannot go any lower! Buy, buy! And it continued to plummet…and it never recovered… If making millions were so easy, we would need more than the Forbes’ top-100 to count the countless millionaires that would spring up from every bedroom in the country…
Trade of our lives in GBP/USD short WHEN THEY STAY IN THE EU.
Trust me.
…y…?
im not saying “no”, but i want to hear your reasons.
The things is I fully expect the GBP/USD exchange rate to be highly unpredictable up till the Brexit… GBP is currently around about 8% undervalued as a result of the brexit fears, but drawing closer to the time will likely drop even further…It is currently trading at around 1.41/1.42 up from 1.38, yet for me this is no rebound, just the realisation that the market perhaps overshot on brexit fears. I fully expect GBP to go down to 1.38, then 1.35, then heck knows even 1.30. The problem is if you trade before Brexit votes are known, on the off chance (always a chance) of Brexit actually happening this could shot down to 1.25, then agai if Brexit doesnt happen I expect it to rise to finish the year no less then 1.50…
Hi UK Forex,
Your post seems logical
BUT
check out the monthly EUR/USD chart. Do you see something similar to the one you attached? There is a clearly “once in a lifetime” trade at the 1.2000 level. Guess what happened? It was broken with a Sunday gap and never looked back!
These “100% sure trades” and “lifetime opportunities” are the exact ones which delete accounts later on.
It can happen that a reversal comes, but someone I think already mentioned in the post: never catch a falling knife!
Last but not least: there will always be enough opportunities to trade, you do not need to make such statements, even if you miss this one, the next day, week or month there will be thousands of great setups to make money from.
PS: from a forex perspective (purely forex!) it does not matter at all how you see the UK situation. Who cares (again, only from forex perspective) if the UK stays in the EU or not? Do you think the trend will follow your mindset? NO! Just have a system and trade what you see and not what you want to believe.
When a market wants to sell an asset, it will downplay positive data for that asset; vice versa, a market determined to push that asset price higher will downplay negative data for that asset.
Translated for the GBP context: if the market sees an opportunity to put capital into GBP-denominated assets, and push Cable higher, then it may use Brexit-related news to do so, or it may use BoE/MPC updates, or again UK Services PMI releases, or any other ‘spark’ to justify buying…
In the end, we, the retail traders, will never know what will move the markets next, nor do we have the power/funds to influence price… Therefore, I ignore Brexit and think that the next big market correction in equities will definitely happen this year, but as for the Pound, it is
anybody’s guess…
An overview of ‘Brexit’ within the context of former referenda in the UK and in Canada:
Issues like this really highlight the gambling side of forex.
As things stand now, the referendum is too close to call and could easily swing either way. A clutch of terror attacks or trouble with asylum seekers on the French side of the tunnel would encourage a sizeable number of voters to “pull up the drawbridge” and vote to Brexit. The “In” campaigners have a minor problem in that Cameron has a bit of a trust problem and his opponents are using that against him.
Biggest problem in trying to guess which way the vote will go is the apathy of British public. Turnouts for recent elections have been abysmal and if this vote is the same, the likely winners may be the side that manages to mobilise their supporters best.
Im not averse to trading in the days and weeks before the vote, but unless I see some evidence of a clear winner I wouldn’t trade sterling on election day at all
