As a short-term swing trader, I will be waiting for the right time to trade GBPUSD, one of the four pairs I selected to trade this week. Here is my perspective on the pair.
[B]GBPUSD:[/B] The market is in a consolidation mode. The market structure indicated that price has not yet retested the Brexit level created on June 24 and that price action is still in a weekly S/R zone. Overall, the order flow was that of a market in consolidation, looking for effective direction. Much likely good GBP fundamentals will help the pair re-test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, which is still far above current price level. As there may be an upward move to test the Brexit level and the monthly pivot, I will wait until price action shows clarity of direction.
The AUDJPY pair is my priority trading pair for this week and this is my perspective on it.
[B]AUDJPY:[/B] The market structure indicated that price was re-testing the long bearish move created by fundamental news re-Brexit on June 24, 2016 and the price action was at a weekly resistance zone. Much likely the price will reject the zone to the downside.
Although EURNZD is the second pair on my selected pairs for trading this week, I’m not trading it yet. Here’s why, giving my perspective on the pair.
[B]EURNZD: [/B]The market structure indicated that the price action was re-testing the level from which the Brexit-price move downwards started/rejected on June 24, 2016, it was at a weekly resistance zone and the monthly pivot. The RSI pointed downwards from 50 and the ADX was bearing up but still under 25 – an indication that a bear pressure was still in play and gained momentum. Overall, the order flow context favoured a rejection of the zone to the downside. I will wait for price to re-test the Brexit zone and reject the weekly resistance zone and then look for a bearish-trade opportunity. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Price has now rejected a confluence of weekly pivot and 200 SMA on the EURNZD 4 Hr chart to southward. A further bearish move below the daily pivot is likely to give impetus to further move to the downside. The ADX on the 4HR is strongly supportive of the momentum southward. Trade safe.
The big players own the market; they drive market moves. They trade levels or predetermined zones. Good retail traders follow in their wake, as closely as possible. Trade safe.
I have just completed my pre-week scanning and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. As a swing trader, I will not be looking to trade EURUSD at least in the early part of this week, rather I will look for an opportunity to trade EURJPY or GBPJPY southward. Here is why I will step aside from trading EURUSD; representing my perspective on the pair.
[B]EURUSD:[/B] Price in consolidation/sideways mode on weekly, choppy on daily and volatile on 4-Hrly time frames. In summary, the market structure or order flow context is not favourable to my swing trading strategy/style. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Here is my take on the GBPUSD after my pre-week analysis. The pin bar on the monthly time frame portends a rejection of further southward move. The pair is ranging and in a sideways mode (about 170 pips in range) after having moved below the Brexit support created on June 24. I expect a breakout to either side. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Just watching this pair; it has moved above the range it created since July 18. It has breached the range to the upside and now doing a re-test. Any successful rejection of the zone to the upside, which is a few pips above the daily pivot, is likely to start the beginning of another move to the north. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
It may be interesting to note that the overall disposition of GBPUSD is still southwards, any northward move is temporary and merely corrective. [B]I may be wrong. [/B]Trade safe
I am yet to conclude my weekly scanning and analysis. Nevertheless, from the first two steps in my scanning process, I know I will be stepping aside on the EURUSD as I expect a sideways market situation on the pair. From the standpoint of technical analysis on the weekly time frame, the southward move is still in play but the momentum is weakening. Trade safe.
I have now completed my weekly analysis and the two priority pairs I will be looking to trade - from the 9 pairs on my watch list - are GBPJPY and EURJPY. I have a trade ongoing on GBPJPY and so will not be opening another trade on it until it gets to another level I will be watching. Besides, I will be doing a mid-week update on the GBPUSD which currently does not offer profitable R:R southward (its current bias) and may require an upward push to be feasible for my swing trading style.
Regarding EURJPY, the downward momentum is strong on weekly but upward move is in play on daily perhaps a corrective one as the overall direction is to the downside. I will look for opportunities for a sell trade during the week, much likely after a retracement to the upside to a significant resistance zone. [B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
EURUSD is predominantly southward in disposition although the current price action is a bit to the north side; a corrective move apparently. Trade safe
