I have just completed my weekly scan and analysis on the pairs on my watch list. Only three of the pairs are amenable to trading with my strategy and techniques during the week. These are: GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPUSD. I will look for opportunities to trade them southward within my identified and clearly defined areas. What about you? Have you done your weekly analysis and chosen the pairs you would like to trade? Share your analysis and outlook here with other forum members. Trade safe.
I am having a bearish bias on the GBPAUD for the week. Here is why, representing my perspective on the pair.
GBPAUD
This pair scored B+ overall on my system. On the weekly time frame, the pair has maintained a bearish tone since October 2008. A significant retracement was confirmed in October 2013 which peaked at the 61.8 Fib in August 2015. Since then, the market on this pair has maintained its displacement southwards. On the daily time frame, the southward mode supervenes. Two weeks ago, price retested the southward, daily mini-trendline established with the Brexit drop down but has since retracted southwards. It is now respecting a mini trendline on the 4H time frame. Any break of this mini trendlne on the 4H time frame northwards is likely to see price to initially target the immediate resistance zone around 1.72726, which is in confluence with the monthly pivot. Otherwise, respecting the trendline to the downside will involve price breaking the corrective mode – represented by a micro trendline, to the downside which is likely to target the weekly support zone around 1.68493, the origin of the corrective move upwards which began two weeks ago.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
For further clarity on my bearish outlook on GBPAUD, the attached is the 4H chart, my set-up time frame.
Trade safe.
Here’s my perspective on GBPUSD.
This pair scored B+ overall on my system. For the week, I am having a bearish outlook on it. On the weekly time frame, the pair has maintained a bearish tone since March 2008 without breaking the market structure even though this was tested with a retracement between 2013 and 2014 but terminated at the 50.0 Fib in July 2014. Since then, the market on this pair has maintained its displacement southwards. All the technicals on the 4H time frame support a bearish disposition.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B] Trade safe.
Good to track cable as any rally or retracement to a quality resistance zone is likely to give a good opportunity for a handsome southward trade. Trade safe.
If you are tracking the cable, you will notice that it is in a downtrend but consolidating atm. On the 4H time frame the pair is respecting an ascending channel, and now by the 50.0 Fib of the most recent high swing, itself a retracement of the main descending trendline. A safer trading mode will be to look for an opportunity to trade the pair southwards perhaps after a possible role flip around the 4H resistance which adjoins the 61.8 Fib. I may be wrong. Trade safe.
If you are tracking the loonie (USDCAD) you will see that it is in an ascending channel. However, recent price action is testing a southern mood. A likely scenario is to retest the 61.8 Fib from the most recent swing to the downside. If this is successful, a downward move is likely to target the next significant support zone adjoining the monthly pivot. Trade safe.
I have just completed my weekly scan and analysis of the pairs on my watch list. I will not be trading the EURUSD this week because I am already in the market on the pair. My perspective is that the downtrend will continue this week. I will be looking for the opportunities to trade EURGBP, GBPAUD and GBPNZD. While I hope to trade EURGBP to the upside, I will look to driving southward with GBPAUD and GBPNZD. Trade safe.
Here is my perspective on EURGBP.
The pair rated ‘A’ on my system and is disposed to the upside. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been on an uptrend since November 2015. At present the price action is testing the 61.8 Fib of an original downward trend started in December 2008. That trend retraced to the 61.8 Fib in July 2011 and got reinstated thereafter until November 2015. Is there a second 61.5 Fib retracement or a breach to the upside? If there is breach to the upside, it is likely to retest the 74.6 Fib level above before the market structure is broken. On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner trendline, somewhat forming an ascending channel. And recent candlesticks indicated that the bulls were in control. A likely target of such bull push may be in the region of 0.87156, which is distal of the weekly resistance zone. Failure in this may see price retest the lower trendline or the monthly pivot below it. The technicals on the 4H timeframe support a further northward move.
Trade safe
For those tracking the EURGBP, it should be interesting to observe that the northward move is apparently targeting and revisiting the 0.88893 area (upper/highest dotted line in magenta colour), an area it last visited in August 2011. Trade safe.
Weekly scan and analysis of pairs provide a fundamental basis for selecting key pairs to trade and the boundary conditions that define how the market will be tracked and stalked. During the week I will be stalking and tracking the following pairs for profitable trading opportunities: GBPUSD, GBPNZD, NZDUSD and USDCAD.
Here’s my perspective on the USDCAD and the sentiment behind the trading opportunities I look for regarding the pair.
USDCAD
The pair continues its ascent. On the weekly time frame, the pair is now respecting an inner trendline after a 32.8% Fib retracement in July 2016. On the daily time frame, the pair has respected a main ascending channel (in magenta colour) since June 2016. It has recently migrated to an inner ascending channel (in Navy colour) which has rejected the monthly pivot and an adjoining weekly support zone. With the 8 EMA serving as a respectable dynamic support and the RSI well directed upwards, the momentum to the upside is fairly strong. All the technicals on the 4H timeframe bear northwards. Price has breached the weekly resistance zone where the market has operated for most of last week and also 1.32956 which was last visited on March 24, 2016. Although, the most recent high of 1.33122 was formed on Friday October 8, 2016 by the penultimate candlestick, the last candlestick has made a bullish push apparently for a further northward drive.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair continues to make its descent. On the weekly time frame, the pair largely respects the 8 EMA as a dynamic resistance and rejected the immediate weekly resistance zone to the downside. It has also rejected the monthly pivot which was proximal to the weekly resistance zone. The market has broken below the immediate weekly support zone, to an all-time low. On the daily time frame, the price action has been largely constrained by the 8 EMA, it is respecting an inner trend line and has remained disposed southwards. However, the most recent candlestick indicated a strong bullish rejection of the all-time low. Most of the technicals on the 4H time frame bear southwards but the momentum is weakening. The RSI has a slight upward tone but still flat and the most recent price action saw a strong bullish influence. However, with the market at 61.8 % Fib retracement of the GBP crash during the Asian session of Friday October 7, 2016, the doji candle formed as the last candlestick on the timeframe is a cue to wait for further price action.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been in a down trend since July 2014 and made a course correction in December 2015. Since then, price moved in an ascending channel and climaxed in a 50.0 Fib retracement with a pin bar/shooting star on September 4, 2016 which rejected the monthly pivot. Price is now on a descent but still within the immediate weekly support zone and was in restraint by the 20 EMA. On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner trendline (in magenta colour) and the technicals support further southward move. Recent price action on the 4H time frame indicates a strong bullish influence. As the market is at the lower part of the weekly support zone, there may be a push to retest the distal part around 0.72142 or the trendline (in magenta colour), probably before a further southward drive.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
[B]Just my 10 cents[/B]
The fundamental approach to having a profitable edge over the market is to set your trap and wait for the best opportunity to strike. Trade safe.
GBPNZD Update
The GBPNZD has continued to respect the trendlines on the weekly and daily time frames to the downside. It should be interesting to see how it reacts to the 61.8 Fib level on its pullback. See attached 4H chart.
I may be wrong. Trade safe.
KP
AUDUSD is operating in a range - within a descending channel. It is now at the upper extreme of the channel. You can get a better picture of it from your 4H chart. Trade safe.