The main trend on the pair is downwards. On the weekly time frame, the pair continues to respect the descending trendline (chocolate colour). After a period of corrective move, price action retraced to the 50% Fib of the swing drop of September 2016 through October 2016. Presently, price action on the weekly time frame shows a struggle between the bulls and the bears with the bulls still more influential. Should the bulls overpower the bears, a much likely target upwards will be the immediate resistance zone around 1.3030, which adjoins the 61.8 Fib and may also retest the descending trendline (chocolate colour).
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel with the technicals in support of a bullish push upwards. This is in line with the observation on the weekly timeframe. As the main trend is southwards, should the lower channel line break southwards, a much likely target will be the origin of the channel around 1.2050, which coincides with the gap down of early January 2017.
If you are tracking USDJPY, note that while the main technical outlook favours further southwards move, presently price action is towards north within an ascending channel. Trade safe and prosper.
Although the main technical outlook on cable is southwards, the market mode is sideways - aka consolidation, about 160 pips range. Trade safe and prosper.
Since the beginning of 2017, price action on the pair on the daily time frame has been on a retracement upwards covering over 290 pips to respect the 61.8 Fib level with a significant moving average serving as a confluence and resistance. Thereafter the order flow has been dominated by the bears. Last week the bulls made a push upwards but on Friday a piercing line formed to counter the bulls.
On the H4 time frame, the downward trendline is well respected after a 50.0 Fib retracement of the most recent swing low from February 2, 2017. The most recent order flow has seen two relatively big bearish candlesticks showing the influence of the bears. The technicals on the H4 time frame support a further southward move with a possible initial target of around 1.0490, which is in confluence with the immediate support zone and the trendline joining the swing lows on the H4 time frame.
Although the pair is still technically disposed southwards, cable is currently in a ranging/sideways mode but the general technical disposition is southwards (See the attached W1 and 4H charts). Should price action break the range on H4 to the south, that will open up a role flip of the zone for further bearish move.
The pair has been predominantly bearish since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, the market respected an outer trendline until May 2016 and then the downward momentum increased leading to the formation of an inner trendline. Most recent price action consolidated in a triangle – more clearly seen on the daily time frame – but with the bears still influential. This portends a further southward move at least to target the immediate support around 1.59872. There is potential for a visit to 1.58600, around the low of the July 2016 bearish drop.
The pair has been primarily south bound for some time. On both the monthly and weekly time frames, recent price action has been lrgely dominated by the bears. On the weekly time frame, the past two weeks have witnessed two strong bearish candlesticks and the technicals favour further bearish move; a likely target being around 109.980, the immediate weekly support zone. Failure to push southwards may see price action operate in a sideways mode or target the top of the recent bearish drop around 114.480, which adjoins the monthly pivot and the long-term MA on my system.
Price action and order flow context on the H4 time frame support the observation on the weekly time frame – the southward move is favoured. However, the momentum is weakening judging by the spatial relationship of the significant MAs on my system. This is also understandable as price action is within a support zone on the H4 time frame. Price action may be sideways in the zone or be pull back to around 112.600 before further bearish move.
The pair has maintained a predominantly declining trend since July 2014. Recently, price action on the weekly time frame was largely sideways but the descending market structure holds. All the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour further southward price action. After a northward pullback in January 2017, for three weeks in February price action was in sideways mode around the monthly pivot but this was rejected southwards last week with a bearish move. However, the move was limited by some bullish struggle. Should the bears break free, an initial target is likely to be the immediate support around 1.2150, which may be extended to 1.1995 – a level which is a mullti-year low and a significant area of support.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action resulted in a southward price wave and a pull back developed as part of the process of completing the first descending price wave. If this pull back retests the immediate weekly resistance around 1.2398 (which adjoins the 50 Fib retracement of the recent drop), or validates the descending trendline by a southward rejection, the second southward price wave may be in the offing; this may target 1.2155, the immediate weekly support.
The pair maintains a northward disposition on both the monthly and weekly time frames. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel for a long while. Last week, a relatively large bullish candlestick formed, which overshadowed six previous candlesticks – showing a strong bullish intent. A likely target of any further move upwards will be the immediate resistance around 1.3590.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved to a lower part of the channe and is respecting a mid-channel line (magenta colour). The last candlestick was a bearish engulfing type. A recognizable flag pattern (Navy) corresponds with a negative divergence on the RSI, perhaps implying that a southwards move is in the offing. Apparently there is likely to be a bearish pullback before any further upward move on this pair. A likely first target is the monthly pivot (1.3197), which adjoins the immediate support on the H4 time frame. As current price action is around an S/R zone on the H4 time frame, a break of the flag southwards should be the first indication that this target may be open for grabs.
On the weekly time frame, the pair commenced an ascending trend in November 2015. Since then, price action has formed two ascending price waves with complete pull backs. The most recent pull back, a 38.2% Fib retracement of the rally from November 2015 occurred in December 2016 and was retested during the early weeks of 2017. After operating in a range for much of February, price action formed a bearish candlestick two weeks ago just below the range but was hindered by a bullish struggle. Last week, a relatively big bullish candlestick formed as an ndication of the intention of bulls to dispose the market further upwards from the range. Should this materialize, an initial target is likely to be the immediate resistace around 0.8755, which may expose the 0.9023 handle.
On the daily time frame, the price action has moved away from the major trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (navy colour) – an indication of an increased momentum.
Price action and order flow on the H4 time frame favour the bulls. However, as price action is operating around an S/R zone on the H4 time frame, any further move upwards will start with another bullish cabdlestick that rejects the zone and take away the resistance around 0.8660.
The pair has been on the ascent on the monthly time frame since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, the order flow has seen two clear price waves northwards with accompanying pullbacks and the major ascending trendline has been well respected. The most recent price action saw a 32.8% Fib retracement of the 2016 high from the November 2015 low and a bounce off the ascending trendline, perhaps preparatory to another price wave upwards. A hammer candlestick formed three weeks ago signposted the follow-up bullish action of the past two weeks. The bulls apparently seem to be in control and the technicals on the weekly time frame are in support. However, realize that price action is at a significant resistance zone around 0.8787 and there are other minor hindrances on the way up, 70 – 150 pips. Thus, any long trade should best wait for a retracement to be profitable, worthwhile or less risky.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel and has recently moved to the upper half of the channel (navy colour channel lines) and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (dotted chocolate colour); an indication of an increased momentum – which may signal an impending pullback before a further bullish move, to possibly target 0.88503, the 2017 high. The technicals are in support of a further bullish move.
The pair has been on a descent for a while on the weekly time frame. However, in the past two weeks the bulls have taken control with two relatively large bull candlesticks which engulfed 15 previous candlesticks. This represents a strong bullish intent that cannot be ignored. As this move is in an S/R zone, a further bullish move is likely to target the next hindrance around 1.57400. With success, this move may further target the immediate resistance around 1.59620.
On the daily time frame price action has just rejected the descending trendline and has turned upwards with the bulls in total control but the market structure of the initial downtrend has not yet been broken. This may require a pullback to retest the origin of the recent move upwards around 1.5080 before a further move upwards. Failure in this may result in a break of the trendline southwards to target the base around 1.4699, the monthly pivot.
On the H4 timeframe, price action has moved upwards to respect an inner trendline (magenta colour), indicating an increaseed momentum but with a potential for a strong pull back. This may result in a 32.8 – 50 Fib retracement before a continuation of the northward move; failure may mean a southward crash to a lower level, perhaps the major trendline (navy colour) from the daily time frame around 61.8 – 76.4 Fib zone or lower.
On the daily time frame, the price is respecting an inner descending trendline but the momentum is weak. There is manifest struggle between the bulls and the bears. This is not surprising as the price action is in a strong support zone. There is at least another 90 pips for maneuvering southwards within the zone.
On the H4 time frame, price has been operating in a descending channel since February 2017. It has moved southwards within the channel creating a double inside bar during the last eight hours of Friday last week. If this results in a further bearish move, price is likely to target the channel line and, perhaps, the next significant support around 1.60044, which represents the 2017 low on the pair; and may expose the 1.57890 handle, the 2016 low.
I want to travel southwards with cable. Here’s why!
The pair maintains a bearish disposition on the weekly time frame. After a bullish retracement in January, price action has returned to a bearish mode although the momentum is still weak owing to resistance from the bulls. Nevertheless, the technicals on the weekly time frame still favour the bears.
On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating in a significant zone (bound by sandybrown coloured lines), adjoining the January gap down and may remain so for a while. This gap has never been visited since January and any break of the zone southward may target the low around 1.19914.
Last week, I had the view that cable would move southwards to retest the gap of January 15, 2017, between 1.2120 and 1.2000. But I was mistaken. Thanks to the favourable fundamentals on cable and the poor greenback showing fundamentally. Nevertheless, overall, I consider the cable move purely unreliable and unsustainable. Yes, the pair has been on an upward stretch; but it seems to be nearing a plateau.
On the daily time frame, the pair is entering an area of consolidation (khaki rectangle). There, it will have to contend with the monthly pivot around 1.24761 and a series of weekly resistance levels nearby.
On the H4 time frame, while it is apparent that the potential for further upward move is there but it may be appealing for scalping purpose only as the main trend is southwards and the 50/61.8 Fib zone is yet to be taken out.
