EURUSD Top Down Analysis

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Try this - combine a price action strategy with patience and precision in trade entry.

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GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Last week, I had the view that cable would move southwards to retest the gap of January 15, 2017, between 1.2120 and 1.2000. But I was mistaken. Thanks to the favourable fundamentals on cable and the poor greenback showing fundamentally. Nevertheless, overall, I consider the cable move purely unreliable and unsustainable. Yes, the pair has been on an upward stretch; but it seems to be nearing a plateau.

On the daily time frame, the pair is entering an area of consolidation (khaki rectangle). There, it will have to contend with the monthly pivot around 1.24761 and a series of weekly resistance levels nearby.


On the H4 time frame, while it is apparent that the potential for further upward move is there but it may be appealing for scalping purpose only as the main trend is southwards and the 50/61.8 Fib zone is yet to be taken out.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the descent on the weekly time frame since December 2015. It entered a corrective mode in November 2016 and peaked at the 78.6 Fib level in December 2016, respecting a major descending trendline (chocolate colour) which began in October 2015. Price action since November 2016 tends to align with an inner descending trendline (dotted line in chocolate colour). Two weeks ago, a bullish candlestick formed to validate the inner trendline and got pushed back by bearish pressure around a resistance zone. Last week an engulfing-like candlestick formalized the bearish influence and disposed the price action further southwards. Nevertheless, the overall price action is taking place in area of consolidation and so the momentum for further downward movement may be limited.


On the daily time frame, price action is on a descent with strong bearish influence. However, as price action is in a consolidation zone (khaki colour) within an S/R area, price may need to retrace upwards to retest the inner descending trendline of the weekly time frame or the immediate resistance zone around 115.850 before a more confident move southwards. It should be realized that the zone has held as support since mid-January 2017. Should price break the zone to the downside, an initial target is likely to be 113.100, a significant round number which aligns with the previous low of March 2016.


On the H4 time frame, price action is largely bearish. However, the momentum is hindered by some consolidating influence of bulls. The most recent price action, with predominant low-wicky candlesticks, indicate a high probability for a move upwards before any further bearish move. A probable area for an upward corrective move is the 32.8/50 Fib zone which adjoins 113.680 – 114.030 and potentially a flip zone, having served as a resistance and support for a while on the H4 time frame.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Analysis

Price has been declining overall since August 2015. A major descending trend line on the weekly time frame has been largely respected by price action. Two main descending price waves have formed since then. However, the second price wave has very little pullback. Possibly a leg up may be required before another descending price wave begins. It should be noted that on the weekly time frame, price has breached the low of 2017; it targeted the low of 2016 but failed. Is that the potential next target for price action, around 1.57890?


On the daily time frame, price action is within a descending channel; a breach of which to the downside is likely to expose the low of 2016 around 1.57890. From the H4 time frame, it is apparent that the bulls are attempting to push price a bit further upwards, perhaps to retest the most recent high (around 1.61362) or the upper channel line. This is likely the case as a hammer candlestick rejected the midline of the channel last week Friday, which was followed up by a further bullish push.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been consolidating for much of the past seven weeks. However, the downward trend that started in March 2013 is not yet broken. Recent price action on the weekly time frame is around a weekly S/R zone. Last week a piercing-like bearish candlestick formed on the weekly time frame but the previous week’s candlestick was a relatively larger bullish candlestick. Momentum for further bearish move is likely to result from a break below the counter trend line (magenta colour) on the weekly time frame.


On the daily time frame, recent price action has been under the influence of bears. With a break of price action below important zones, e.g. the immediate resistance zone and the monthly pivot, the next hindrance southwards is the counter tend line and the daily support zone, between 0.75516 and 0.75508.


On the H4 time frame, price action has made one wave southwards and is now operating around a resistance zone following a pullback. Although there is much likelihood for further retracement, the technicals favour a southwards move thereafter, particularly if price breaks below the counter tend line (navy colour). This is likely to target and expose the next significant support zone around 0.74663.



I may be wrong.
Trade safe and prosper

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

This pair continued its bearish disposition. On the weekly time frame, in December 2016, the pair saw a 76.4 Fib retracement of the downward trend began in August 2015. Price action has moved below the outer trend line to respect an inner trendline. Recent price action has remained within the 61.8/50.0 Fib zone, moved below the monthly pivot and validated a counter trendline (magenta colour). The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further bearish move.

On the daily time frame, recent price action is largely under the control of bears. However, there was a bullish influence last Friday which may indicate a likely pullback before further southward move. This is particularly so as the price action in the latter part of last week was in a support zone which has held since November 2016.

The likelihood of a further pullback can be seen on the H4 time frame where much of the price action has been in consolidation but the bullish engulfing candlestick formed in the last session on Friday dominated two previous candlesticks; a possible target of any such retracement is around the 50 Fib zone, between 111.644 and 112.234.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.




If you are tracking EURUSD, note that price has entered an S/R zone that was last visited in December 2016.

Trade safe and prosper.

Are you tracking USDJPY? You may expect it to move further northwards before driving southwards. A likely retracement target is the 38.2/50 Fib zone, proximal to the immediate resistance zone on the H4 time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair is generally on a downward mood. Since mid-December 2016, price action on the weekly time frame has been operating within a descending channel formed by the outer and inner descending trendlines from the high of 2014. Price action in February and early March 2017 retraced upwards to the range formed between mid December 2016 and January 2017 before moving further southwards four weeks ago. Last week, the weekly candlestick tested and nestled on the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2016, and at an intersection of a weekly support zone, but could not breach it. A breach of the trendline is likely to target and be limited by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2012. Should price action bounce off that zone, it would have to contend with an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 with the monthly pivot around 120.00 serving as another likely hindrance. A break above this is likely to be held by the immediate resistance zone around 122.00, which intersects the inner descending trendline. The technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed for further southward drive. On the H4 time frame, an outer descending trendline (bold saddlebraown colour) from the high of March 13, 2017 is still very much in play while price action has moved lower, indicating an increase in momentum, to respect an inner descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 17, 2017. The order folw context and the nature of price action last week showed that the market was in consolidation but the bulls were largely more influential. It is much likely that there wil be a retracement northwards before any further southward move is in play. A likely target of such a retracement is the intersection of the inner descending trendline and the immediate resistance zone, which is around 118.656 and 119.023 and which adjoins the 38.2 Fib zone from the high of March 17, 2017.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.



If you are tracking the AUDUSD this week, consider this technical perspective. On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the triangle pattern formed by a descending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the high of March 2017 and an ascending trendline (bold magenta colour) from the low of March 2017 and is now respecting an inner descending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in southward momentum. Two bearish price waves had been created since the price action moved into the inner trendline – the first was accompanied by a full pullback, but the second is still in play and may likely experience a pullback before further southward push.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


If you are tracking EURUSD, note that the price action is operating around the support line of an ascending channel. A daily close below the support line is likely to expose the low of 2016 around 1.03631, which has held as a multi-year support zone. Otherwise, price is likely to pull upwards into the channel to target the immediate resistance around 1.06500.

I may be wrong.
Trade safe and prosper.



If you are tracking USDJPY, note that although the overall technical disposition of the pair is southwards, there is likely to be a retracement northwards to around 109.320 and 110 before a further southward drive. The immediate key support is about 50 pips southwards at the moment.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.


As the immediate key support is about 50 pips southwards at the moment, unless you are a scalper, you would like to wait for a retracement to swing trade the pair southwards.

Trade safe and prosper.

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on the decline since July 2008. It witnessed about 61.8 Fib retracement in January 2014 and peaked just shy of 76.4 Fib retracement by the end of that year. The pair has rejected southwards the major descending trendline on the weekly time frame (chocolate colour) and is now respecting another descending trendline from the high of 2014 (navy colour). Between December 2016 and January 2017, price action consolidated around 38.2 Fib retracement of the July 2008 decline. After a brief southward move, price retested the same zone in March 2017 before it drove further southwards four weeks ago. The order flow in April has been largely under the control of sellers but a major support zone which intersects with the ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of 2012 (serving as a support) is just about 45 pips away and there is likelihood of some sideways move or reaction upwards at the zone before the southward drive gathers much impetus. Should price break the support southwards that will expose the 110.400/450 handle, the low of 2016 which has served as a multi-year support. The technicals on the weekly time frame support further southward move.


On the H4 time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of March 2016 around the 38.2 Fib zone and an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) has formed, indicating an increase in momentum. Price action has formed two descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks and a third price wave is still in play but there is likelihood of a pullback before a further move southwards particularly as price action has hit support in the shape of an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. However, given the price momentum and the order flow context, unless the fundamentals contrive otherwise, the major technical outlook is for a bearish continuation.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The descending trend that the pair kicked off in July 2007 is still very much intact. On the weekly time frame, a major retracement of the July 2007 drop was initiated in November 2012 and peaked around the 61.8 Fib zone in June 2015. Price action was sideways for a few weeks in that zone before it driove southwards. Thereafter, price action produced two major descending price waves with pullbacks between November 2015 and December 2016,; the most recent pullback being around the 23.6 Fib zone. Price action is now respecting an inner descending trendline from the high of April 2015. Although the immediate support is about 100 pips away, the technicals and order flow context on the weekly time frame indicate a slow down of further bearish move. The bear candlesticks are not significant in size and bull candlesticks jostle for recognition. The bears may have to overcome the support formed by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 before being favoured for a further southward move. There is another support zone around 134.073 which needs be contended with by the bears.


On the daily time frame, price is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of November 2016, which is the 23.6 Fib retracement of the decline from the high of July 2007. Recent price action was around a zone that has held as an S/R zone in the past and created the Jan 12, 2017 gap (khaki rectangle). Although sellers have been very much in control since the beginning of April, price action is now at the end of an ascending triangle created by the descending trendline and an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 2016. Should sellers break the support line of the triangle, the initial target is likely to be the low of the Brexit drop, around 133.130. Although the technicals on the H4 are in favour of a further bearish continuation, it may be better to wait for price action to retest the immediate resistance zone (khaki colour) for confidence in a southward drive .


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair began a declining trend in June 2015. On the weekly time frame, price action began a major retracement in September 2016 and peaked to around the 76.4 Fib zone in November 2016. Since then, price action has made one descending wave with a pullback and the second price wave southwards is in play. The last weekly candlestick was a strong bearish engulfing candle that breached two support zones and closed shy of the next support by just 54 pips. This shows a strong intent on the part of sellers.


On the H4 time frame, a major descending trendline has held for a while but price action has moved lower to respect an inner descending trendline (magenta colour), representing an increase in momentum. The price momentum hit and slightly breached a support line created by an ascending trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of September 2016. The last two sessions on the H4 time frame last week saw a feeble attempt by the bulls to push upwards; ending with formation of relatively tiny doji-like candlesticks. Based on the order flow context on the H4 time frame, this portends a further bearish move before any retracement. An initial target, perhaps before the pullback, is likely to be near 108.000, around the immediate support; which is about 78 pips southwards.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPJPY Technical Update

If you are tracking GBPJPY notice that price action retraced to the area I indicated (khaki colour) on the H4 time frame on Sunday and rejected it southwards with over 100 pips.


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AUDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) formed by the high of 2014. After the price action created three price waves to the downside, it initiated a major retracement in April 2016 which culminated at the 50 Fib zone in February 2017 and validated the descending trendline from 2014. Price action operated sideways within the 50 Fib zone for sometime in March. Since then the bears took control and pushed the price southwards. Last week, the price action touched the support line created by the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of 2016 but the weekly candlestick formed last week was doji-like and thus not a decisive move. Price action would need to breach the support line before an impetus for further bearish move can be seen. Should price action succeed in this, the immediate target is likely to be the next support around 79.278. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of a bearish mood.


On the daily time frame, price action since March 2017 has been operating in a descending channel (dark violet colour) but since the beginning of April the price action has moved to the lower half of the channel, creating a pennant-like formation, portending an increase in momentum southwards. It should be noted that the most recent price action is within a zone which has flipped as an S/R role for a while. As there is a confluence of barriers in this zone, price action may struggle before it successfully breaks below the zone. This is likely to expose the next support zone, around 79.278, as the likely target.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

A down trend has persisted on the weekly time frame since January 2016. The trend witnessed a retracement in October 2016 which peaked at the 86.8 Fib level in December 2016. Since then price action has been on a southward drive but with strong bullish resistance. Overall, price action is respecting a descending trendline (chocolate colour) on the weekly time frame. However, the nearest support is provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 2016. Last week a ‘spinning top’ like candlestick was formed after the strong and relatively big bearish candlestick which formed two weeks’ ago. This portends a likely bearish continuation. Should price action breach the immediate support created by the ascending trendline from the low of September 2016, the next target is likely to be around 105.250, which adjoins an area of a multi-year low and support zone. Otherwise, any upward move – likely to be corrective, may target the immediate support around 110.210, which adjoins the 50 Fib retracdement of the January 2016 drop.


On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (magenta colour). One descending price wave had been completed, including a pullback which was followed by a period of consolidation three weeks’ ago. A second price wave southwards began two weeks’ ago and is still very much in play with a pullback initiated last week. The most recent price action indicated that the bears were trying to exert some influence to begin a further southward drive. Nevertheless, it is much likely that price action will retrace upward to the resistance created by the descending trendline, before any further southward move may be seen as reliable.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.