In the end, people can sometimes get into arguments in forums for entirely irrational reasons (mostly us men, who claim to be ‘more rational’… ha!) which have little do with fact and more with a drive for
recognition and for being right while the next forum user is shown to be wrong, with a need to impose our views with some backing of knowledge (real or presumed)…
Truly, none of us is ever knowledgeable about everything… hell, when Dr. Lexy or Peterma or Clint
or ClarkFX speak, I am silently humbled and just prefer to listen… Yet other people will probably not tolerate being told something they clearly do not know and will retaliate…
Okay, this was not one of those situations… clearly…
However, it is better agreeing to disagree than to get into fistfights over something theoretical…
The worst thing a trader can hear him/herself be told on a forum is : you are a loser / unsuccessful…
So when someone is told that their edge is actually not an edge, that can really get them worked up,
and they may try to prove their success rate… Truly, without some sort of audited record (except perhaps
MyFxbook), none of us here can prove that what they say about their trading performance is actually true…
Therefore, trust must be gained by being as open to other forum members about our struggles and our
trading life, which makes us much more engaging as forum contributors than people who shout their
greatness atop these pages and then, when other members start telling them to get a grip on their arrogance,
Yeah, I don’t understand why someone would increase their position sizes after a loss in hopes to regain the the loss faster. You’re basically rewarding yourself with the honor of making larger trade sizes because you made a loss? That doesn’t add up, punish yourself with at least one smaller trade size before going back to your normal trade size, or for whatever reason a larger trade size.
My main reason being against increasing trade size after a loss is because you’re more likely to [I]overtrade[/I] or [I]“revenge trade”[/I]. I feel that someone would make worse decisions after a loss and become more risky in hopes to make the gain back in the shortest time possible because it drags further emotion into your trading style after a loss. Think, because if your next trade size is larger and you lose on it again, it’ll just be that much harder to gain it back. Then you [I]may[/I] end up creating a cycle of using a larger than usual position size for any of your trades on an account that can’t handle very many losses on a larger position size.
Yet, do what works for you, just always be careful.
90% of my trades last no more than an hour and are solely based off of anything but fundamentals. In long term trade fundamentals may play an overall subtle role to the outcome of a currency pair. But being a [I]speculator[/I] and day trading most news or events hold very little value to making a drastic price change.
i trade the stock market as well. And when good news comes out on a specific company/stock overreactions quickly get disseminated within the same trading day, and often for whatever reason a stock may go down in value even with good news. News seems to play a larger role on a stock’s daily volume for the next day or so, causing a chaotic environment. Yet, in many cases it doesn’t play a huge role in the direction of a stock by end of day, especially if they were gap ups in after hours and pre-market trading.
Due to stock trading, my opinion on news and fundamentals is maybe altered towards the average Forex trader. Positive fundamentals be correct with an overall trend after running over many hills and through valleys. If fundamentals do not make a very big difference in one tiny specific stock, I highly doubt currency pairs will be affected by fundamentals. Plus fundamentals always change.
Yet, emotions, patterns, indicators, etc. (technical analysis) never changes and is always consistent to the charts, they’re obviously more accurate in the shorter time frames, but still none the less they work for long term investments as well.
The best method though would probably be to utilize both, because they compliment each other. Technical analysis is good for finding a good position in a trade, yes. But, without looking at the fundamentals even technical analysis could be much more than that because without any fundamentals you can easily find trends and trading patterns that exist within the charts. Therefore, those charts basically just show you the overall consensus of how the currency pair’s fundamentals are looking, without knowing any specifics on the fundamentals whatsoever.
Both, fundamentals and technical analysis, reflect one another.
Look Lexys, I don’t care what the scientists say, since my personal experiments dictate otherwise. Obviously they are not traders, and obviously they don’t know how to draw the tool correctly and which ratio’s to ignore and focus on. I have explained this to you before. These are also the same people who believe that day trading is gambling (which it is for all noob traders in fact, scientist or not). In reality, listening to a scientist what he has to say about trading is like listening to a book worm about sports. I can give you tons of examples but it doesn’t make any difference because you will just rationalize it as “cherry picking”. In fact, I don’t think you’re gonna go so far as saying support and resistance lines don’t exist either? Cuz I don’t know if you noticed but, they usually are 1.618 times removed from each other. I admit my first thread I made was premature, since I just discovered it and was still drawing it wrong (2.618 extention of pullback instead of last high/low + first (1) and second (1.618) resistance broken, then enter at 2.618). So if if you think the universal golden ratio would somehow be exempt from markets then I don’t know what to say… In fact, it’s completely illogical and a total facepalm. I give you something for free which could change your trading forever. Now if you only opened your mind and backtest my strategy like a REAL SCIENTIST WOULD DO you would stop your stupid rationalization.
Also, your comment about astrology is completely off the mark, you cannot compare a universal mathematical constant like the pi or the golden ratio to an ancient religious belief system. Jesus ****, just go home Lexys, I didn’t know trading could make one so cynical, but I guess that’s what happens when your edge is still so small after so many years…
It is clearly working for me. I have zero patience with people like this, always trying to take the intellectual higher ground… And no, it is not good because I wish it to be good, it is good because it is backtested.
You might not know this, here in baby pips lexy is regarded as a very educated fx trader. So when a new trader who only have 17 post to date . Posts like this. I don’t know what to say.
New trader? Am I hearing this correctly? New trader? I have been trading for 3 years straight, an average of 10 trades a day. Just because I just joined a stupid forum doesn’t mean I’m a new trader. The only reason I joined was to share my discovery (my initial post was premature, so I might make a new one in the future, OR I might not, cuz obviously none cares anyway), NOT to join the friend club. I have friends in real life.
Just a trade I took just now. (Yes, I even trade in the weekend sometimes.)
1M chart, 5 min. expiry (it’s binary options, but I’m probably going back to spot in the future when I up my capital.)
As rose by any other name would still smell the same.
Like most you think your “discovery” is something new. Hate to tell you bro, nothing new here in how you trade. Not even a hint of an original thought. Like most, we are that naive that we think we can bring something new to the table. Alas, we can’t.
So we learn to trade what we see and move on. No point getting upset because someone more learned "might’ be critical of our methods.
As for skill, whom are you kidding? Skill has nothing to do with it. Experience has. I might have the skill to hit a golf ball 300 yards, experience has taught me it not always the best option. I will agree on the not easy money comment.
My personal view, don’t have much time for technical indicators. They are just mathematical representations of price and time. Even everyone’s beloved candles are nothing more than that. So price and time are the only things I care about and what my work revolves around. And as a day trader, fundamentals have little importance other than what TIME new events will occur.
Sorry, I apologize, I see now that bad/apprentice traders are unable to distinguish between good and bad systems/strategies. I expect too much of you guys. Good luck on your journey, I thought I could shorten it but it seems that was just naïvety on my part.
Technicals, whether one wants to call them indicators, tools, predictors or whatever, are precisely what you say - mathematical representations of price and time and nothing more than that. If price movement is random then there is no method that can suggest where price is going next. But we all work on the basis that price is not random, rather that it is going somewhere erratically. The objective then is simply to try and identify the direction of the core underlying movement and to pinpoint where price is likely to pause or reverse.
Price is not random because it is based on changes in supply and demand for the actual product, currencies, shares, etc. Changes in supply and demand are based on changes in economic activity, interest rates, company developments, monetary policies and so on. But the complication is that these changes are often slow and unclear. Economic data is often contradictory, backward looking, crude estimations, and often revised with the next release. For this reason even fundamental analysis can only be an educated calculation of the probable future direction.
When there is a prolonged and/or major structural change in situations it can be a long time before its impact fully filters through in the market price. For example, pension funds do not, indeed cannot, move all their funds during the next candle on a 5m chart! Therefore, it follows that especially short-term trading is primarily speculative and, as a result, disproportionately impacted by technical methods.
Whether we talk of S and R levels, MACD, RSI, MA’s or Fibonnacci retracements or extensions, patterns, candles or any other such method, they are all lagging in that they require at least one reference point prior to the present price. If I were to only say that the price of commodity X is currently 123.45, without some other data there is nothing technical that can predict the future direction.
On the other hand, if we only consider the fundamental economic situation we again only have the latest data to go on which is already history. And we all know that there are maybe as many economic predicitions as there are analysts. And even if our view turns out to be correct, the price may move significantly against us before it finally fulfills our prophecy.
There are, therefore, two things that can be considered: (1) what fundamental changes are occuring and what impact they may have on price, and (2) what is price actually doing right now regardless of the factors that might be moving it.
The shorter our trading horizon the more predominant is option (2). Not because technicals are better in the shorter TF but because fundamentals are less revelant. In addition, because there are so many traders in the shorter TF’s, often using the same mathematical formulas to arrive at the same technical levels, there arises a self-fulfilling tendency due to the concentration of orders around those levels. The more popular and wide-spread the method the more orders will be seen there. This can be equally exploited by short term traders and ignored by positional traders since the self-fulfilment impact is a short-lived hiccup in the long term trend.
Price has been moving for much longer than the existence of technicals and we should always remember that any technical analysis is only a visual representation of what price has been doing and is doing right now. It does not have the power to determine what price must do next or where it must stop.
“an ancient Sanskrit greeting. Translated roughly, “The Spirit within me salutes the Spirit in you” - a knowing that we are all made from the same One Divine Consciousness.”
That’s really nice!
…And kind of appropriate for a community like ours where we should always remember that we are all equal and all on the same side…
