What gives you the impression i’m not open minded or haven’t come across what you’re observing in far more depth?
I apologies if I wasn’t more clear in my expression. When I wrote “you” i meant all readers of this thread.
What do your probability percentage ratios tell you about the outcome of that tactic when executing alongside a bet sizing grid for instance? because you mention cutting some bets whilst running others.
I wouldn’t call it a tactic, but rather a methodology you can use. Some prefer a timed take profit, some a fixed and last a more trailing stop under each bar. The quicker you take profit, the higher winrate, but less reward pr trade. The longer you hold the trade, the more reward but a lower win rate. Not matter what you choose, you will always feel bad - Nailing Better Trade Exits - ReThink Group
Personally, my trades are usually a winrate 50%. but I find my weekly results very stable around 70% because the market tends to have at least one move pr. week, Doesn’t always happend, but most of the time… I’m not trying to maximize or complicate the method. If price moves, it gives me plenty of opportunities to profit. I personally don’t look at volatility targets or adjust my stop because last week was low in volatility. Because we do not know what’s gonna happen next.
For example, do 2, 4 or 8 hour expiries afford you significantly higher or lower proportional percentage returns when compared to 3, 6 or 12 hour bar breakouts……& how would that affect the way you adopt one particular option over the other, particularly when running it alongside a specific regional currency?
I haven’t find any particular edge in trading a specific instrument, but rather the importance of figuring out through trial and error what suits you. This comes back to the take profit. I prefer the 4h and 8h charts, and at the moment I trade GBPJPY and Gold. I might change strategy to something else, or if I feel like only trading one of the pairs because I’m busy. We are often told that you are not allowed to trade anything else than your plan, well I think it’s complete rubbish, if you trade the same structure or method, well go ahead.
Do the percentage returns increase or decrease noticeably dependent upon the time duration bar used in your entry-to-exit grid.
This is a really great question. I use to think that my losses on 8h would be 2x than 4h. But the market can only do so much. I use the same fixed position size on 4h as I do on 8h.
Oh that’s another thing, I don’t do risk calculation pr. trade, but rather a basket of trades in a week. Which means that I backtest my method and if I find a 500pips loss in a week as the worse week possible, I then calculate how much I can trade pr. 500pips in loss, and then recalculate when the week is over. Doe
Because if you intend to adopt it across the spectrum you’re surely going to need to know how effective it performs under certain conditions so you’re able to either ignore it on one regional currency, yet execute it on another…or do you perhaps think it’s not necessary…if so, why not?
That is up to the trader. I’m not able to figure out when the market is particular suited for me. I know that when there is no movement, no one makes money. But with a 50% win rate on average, I do get whipsawed in some weeks, at it hurts, but in low volatility periods, my drawdowns are also very low. Risk and reward goes hand in hand. You can get very volatile markets that is very wiggy and scary… really! But in 9/10 weeks with high volatility is profitable. I don’t have the figures, but it’s a gut feeling.
Which timezone duration bar closes are you identifying as more productive & efficient when executing bar breakouts?
Do geographic closes compare more favourably to the recognised interbank close or is the difference negligible?
I haven’t found any edge in particular markets. But if you trade the shorter timeframes, you might want to trade where are some volatility.
I probably missed something in your questions, so please PLEASE let me know if you have more questions.
you’re not wrong there.