EURGBP trade proposal

So they’re trolls… thanks for telling me.

Well, this week my GBPUSD gave me a 10R profit. The 4R trade was explained before. Price hit my trailled SL. But I think it would have been better to take profit on the H4 area of support (that is a 10R profit). Anyway, you have to deal with this kind of frustrations when doing trading. I was waiting for price to break that zone. Price did what it usually do: what it wants to do.

There was another level given by the big H4 pinbar. So I tried a sell entry after price broke this level. This is not an usual entry of my system, but I tried and it worked. I put the TP on the thick D1 level (the most important for this week). And I got another 6R trade. So I finished with a 10R on this pair.


This is the other trade of the week. It is still open. It is perfect. You have a clear downtrend on the weekly with a zone (blue rectangle area) acting as resistance. It was broken on October with a very strong movement. That means this area is strong so you have to expect a strong resistance reaction. Then, on the D1 you see price broke that zone upwards with a ver strong movement that started on the thick blue line. Price didn’t hold and fall again resuming the big downtrend of the weekly chart. That failled atempt to broke the level to begin an uptrend is a clear sign that bears are very strong.

This week price broke the blue line and it gave me a nive pinbar on the reversal. This pinbar is PERFECT for me, usually if the previous candle is a big candle that pinbar means there is enough bearish momentum to stop the bullish force of that previous candle. And if the body of the pinbar is red, even better. It worked very well and I hope it will reach the next D1 level. You see there is some rejection now (don’t know if that’s a technical signal, or just people leaving the markets on friday). I have a guaranteed 5R on this for the next week.


I had also a -1R on the USDJPY. This is an example of how my losses look like. After the pinbar, the next candle touches the SL, end of the story. So I can put another trade on the next opportunity. If price is doing noise around the entry point, I usually put to BE and forget about it. I want momentum, either on my direction or opposite. But I want to see price moving.


Problems of technical analysis and how to overcome them

Trade on USDCAD.

You see on the weekly that price was going upwards without momentum (very slowly). It made a double top figure. After the double top price dropped strongly. you see on the D1 chart that the current downward movement is stronger than the previous one (it has more momentum). Price is now inside a range so my TP is on the other side of the range (I want price to test that level). I waited on the H4 for breaking some level, with a retrace to it and the pinbar. I have put it on BE already (don’t know if I am being too cautious…). My TP is a 6R for this one.


Trade on AUDJPY

This is SO beautiful…
It is a reversal one, so I used RSI + Bollinger indicators (I remember you my checklist: 2 waves, the second one with RSI divergence and price reaching the BB external band). It would be better if the pinbar wick protrudes the BB. But, it was closely… I took it.

Analysis: on the weekly you see a pinbar 4 weeks ago from a very important level of resistance. So the bias is to put short positions. On the D1 you see a reaction last week to a horizontal level, also a sign of bearish momentum. So you have to wait for a nice pinbar on the H4 pointing downwards. It’s a reversal so you can put your BB + RSI for confirmation. I was conservative with a TP on the level, that is 5R profit, but you see that price is still going down!!!. I need to work more on this, I usually let profits on the table (even 20R on profits!!). My logic is OK, but I still enter and exit quickly, I need more patience on my exits. My TP is usually the next D1 level. But I need to work out some rule about what to do when price reach that D1 level, and, insted of exiting… decide if continue with my position or not (probably just see if price makes a rejection there? don’t know… still thinking about it).


I have just finished this trade on EURSEK, don’t remember if I put it here when I entered.

It is very simple. A downtrend on the weekly. The D1 is very clean: price breaking several D1 levels… so the trading idea is wait for the pullback and the pinbar on H4. I entered as usual with the limit order and took profits on the next D1 level. That is a 10R. Don’t know how long this downtrend will last. There is a very clear weekly TP level, so probably price will go until there. No idea.


New trade on AUDUSD. It is a counter trend trade but my reason for entry is the clear level on the D1 chart. On December price tried to break this level but it couldn’t. So my trade idea is that this level will reject price again. anyway, it is a counter trend trade, so I will watch closely what happens. If I see on H4 price stopping at some level and doing noise, probably I will close. Or if a new pinbar appears indicating new bullish momentum (which goes with the trend).


I have a trade on the original pair of this thread: EURGBP.

This is interesting because there was a gap. My idea of gaps is that is a strong signal that the market is manipulated for some reason. Also there was a fundamental today for the GBP so we have more reasons to think that GBP pairs today would make very strong movements.

When a gap happens, my bias is that price will fill the price levels of the gap. My theory for gaps is that there are a lot of participants trapped on that area so price will get them: fill their positions and then hit their stops. Probably both actions in the same day.

My trade idea for today was a rejection of the shaded area. So I waited for a good pinbar on my bias direction (selling). I also knew price would fill the gap area and at the same time a fundamental could accelerate the process. My TP was at the next D1 level. That is a 7R.


New trade on GBPCHF. Don’t like end of week trading but it is a signal, so…


On the Weekly you see a downtrend and finally price did a false break of a level there. When a false break of a level occurs, that means that the level is still strong. Also you see the yellow line as a dynamical suppor/resistance, so it is a place where to look for trend continuation patterns.

On the D1 chart there were various signals on the top of the current mini-downtrend (4 pinbars!!) so there is bearish momentum, the weekly trend is still on and the yellow line is doing its job as resistance. Also you can see a very big bullish pinbar on the D1 chart. That means A) the level that was false-breaked is still working and is a strong level; and B) this pinbar did nothing, price didn’t went up, so the bearish momentum is still very strong. Finally there where a big down movement with 2 gaps that broke the zone the pinbar was using as support. Price reached a buying area (given by the recent accumulation zone of October) and you see there was a H4 buy opportunity there: it is a trap to the level (cleaning all SL’s) and then a quasi-pinbar (upper wick too big, according to my criteria).

Finally, after price reached the middle zone area again, there is a double top with a pinbar on the 2nd top (this is patter that works very often if aligned with another trading ideas) so I sold here. there are two TP’s on obvious levels.

As possible outcomes for this pair (very squematic on the Weekly chart):

  1. double bottom on the buying area + breaking of the dynamical level --> new trend


  1. price inside an upward channel + pullback to confluent zone of levels --> new trend


  1. breaking of the buying area + pullback to confluent zone --> trend continuation


A must-read articles about loving your trades and don’t cheat your trading system:

The One Question You Have To Ask Yourself Before EVERY Trade

The Best Trades Will Find You…If You Stop Looking for Them » Learn To Trade

New trade on USDJPY


On the weekly chart you can see a recent uptrend with strong momentum. Price hit a significant resistance area. So now is doing the retracement to the next weekly level (see the arrow, that’s what I expect on the weekly chart).

On the daily there are two pinbars (tradeable both of them). That is bearish momentum. There was a recent double-bottom, and that’s my TP area. But there exist the possibility that price avoid this area (not giving a triple-bottom for example). So I will be watching the H4 chart carefully.

The H4 entry is one of my favourite scenarios: breaking of the level, pullback and pinbar. Price hit my entry level and started a big downward movement. I think on Asia session price will slow down or do a retracement. I would need a second impulse to hit my TP area. But I will close the trade when new buying momentum appears (pinbars pointing upwards, or big engulfing candles).

USDJPY on H4 is doing fine so I move my SL to the last maximum of the micro-structure. I hope price to hit my TP this week after a new impulse.


Question:

Today it was the BOJ Press conference before London Session. BUT I saw fundamentals on JPY pairs much much later. Do you know why?

Finally this fundamental touched my SL and also my TP zone on the USDJPY trade.

If you are tracking EURGBP, note that the pair has been in sideways mode since yesterday. The range is much likely to be a scalper’s delight. Trade safe and prosper.


I had 4 trades on EURGBP recently and I have one open right now.


On the weekly chart price is on the distribution zone (range). There is a false break of a historial horizontal level and also a relevant level (black one).

On the daily chart we have a head & shoulders figure. The neck of the figure is another relevant level.

The first trade was motivated by the idea of a continuation of the weekly trend. Also I interpreted the daily last movement as a retracement and I was looking for the next impulse of the trend. I put my TP on the next big obstacle on the H4 chart (TP1). I was expecting price to break that level, do a pullback and give another entry. That was what happened so I entered again with target on the level (TP2). The next trade is a pinbar on a level, but as price hit the level. This is a highly risky trade. It’s rare for price to hit a level with a pinbar formation and then start the reversal. A trap or false breaking was expected. And that’s what happened. That was then a -1R trade. I entered again on the next pinbar, but price hit my SL again. Don’t worry about it (with a wider SL I would have profit here). The last trade is a short after price breaking an H4 level and doing the pullback. I have my position on BE already so this is either a BE or a 3R trade.

My idea is price to start a new downtrend or resume the uptrend. I expect price to break the range zone with decission. Sure with some fundamental about the Brexit ??

I am thinking about publishing my trading method, ideas, and also ALL my trades on a website. This will help me for reviewing my trades, study my results and perform a better trading. I will inform you about it here.

I’m curious …

Why do that, and have all the difficulties and hassle of the ongoing maintainance of a website, rather than using something like the “Journals” section of this forum, with the publication-facility effectively provided for you?

There’s [I]one[/I] thread in which links to one’s own blog/site are permitted - beyond that, it may cause the moderators an issue, [I]especially[/I] if there’s anything commercial/promotional/advertised on the site. :33:

I’d follow that - I really want to learn! Thanks :57:

Don’t know, just an idea. I am a bit lazy about it. Thanks for your ideas. I won’t sale anything, that’s for sure.

I find trading pinbars on H4 may push you to overtrade. With a portfolio of 30-40 pairs on Forex, it is usual that there are several good pinbars at the same time. Then, either you risk more (1% each) or you divide your 1% risk among them (so if you have 5 pinbars, you put 0,2% on each). You have to pay fees and also if the pinbar is small the slippage can get your SL.

But, also… overtrading can be stressful. Even if you are getting profits, you may experience stress after several good trades. Worse if they are all losses.

So, probably (as a way of improvement) you can use this new criteria for filtering pin bars:

- just take a pinbar if its range is greater or equal 1,5 times the ATR -

Insted of 1,5 you can put another number. I am now doing some backtest and 1.5 works fine.

Also you add this entry technique so keep a good RRR ratio:

  • entry at the 1/3 of the pinbar range -

This is for H4.
Add to this entries on pinbars on D1, and you have a very good pinbar selection with no overtrading.
The ‘hard’ part here is to follow your trades. They usually last 2-3 weeks. You must be patient.

Example: USDCHF. On the NinjaTrader I put the ATR and Range indicators. I don’t need to see the line, so I shrink them and I look only to the number. I divide range/ATR and if the result is greater or equal to 1.5, then I take the pinbar with a limit order on the first 1/3 of it.


Depending on the exit level, you wait more or less with more or less profit.


Trade on NZDCHF


On the weekly price is on an upward range, breaking the horizontal level slowly.

On the daily we see the horizontal level still working: there were two pinbars, and also a candle with a big wick closing above the level. This candle is the trap to the level we see on the H4 chart. Then, you only need to wait for a pinbar protruding that level. The bias is long because price is on an uptrend and my trading idea is price breaking the horizontal level. I want to see price breaking the range in the up direction strongly.

My TP on this trade is on the top of the range, that is 7R. I have already put my SL to BE after the last candle broke the maximum of the red one (retracement of the micro-trend inside the movement).