World War 3 Kitty

Greetings.

In the unlikely even that the Donald wins the US Elections next month. How much if at all do you think USD and the US Equity Markets will tumble by.

I thought from the title that it was going to be another thread about my mother’s cat (he has his own nuclear fallout shelter, under their house, just to be on the safe side).

A couple of months ago, I thought Trump had at least a 50% chance of winning; now I think it’s probably only 10%, if that.

I think the dollar will take a bit of a drop, perhaps 5%, if he wins. I’m not at all sure their equity markets would. (I take the view that they’re hugely over-valued to start with, but I no longer understand what it takes to make them take a serious tumble … maybe the war itself? Although then again, war can be quite good for business, sometimes, can’t it?).

My grasp of fundamentals and overall economic prowess are such that my opinion’s probably about as close-to-worthless as you can get, in a trading forum, but hey … at least I set the ball rolling …

My concern is that the US is currently looking for a direct confrontation with Russia, and that is not good.

The American military has not had a fight with another real military force in decades - there are real wild cards in there.

All I can think is stay alert and stay nimble and knowledgeable and react to situations and market movements as they happen.

Great question…

Here is handy video about this from the great John Kiklighter:

Unusual US Presidential Election Risk for Dollar and S&P 500

EURUSD up 250 pips in the last few hours. I’m definitely only manual trading for news events from now on.

Do you know the law of attraction? More you think about negative more it will concentrate, visa verse. Watch sponge Bob

The Donald has won. EURUSD up and down, very good for trend trading. Definitely news events (political news) give the most reliable/predictable/noticeable trending for simple SMA cross opportunities.

750 pips up for grabs on Price cross of SMA in 3 separate trades (250 pips each) with 5:1 to 10:1 Reward Risk ratio for each.

Opportunity = 15 to 30 times risk in 5 hours assuming no compounding.