Thanks for that recommendation, Dr. Lexy, you are so knowledgeable and a huge help to us all.
I started looking at that book right now and it is exactly what I need at this point in my journey…
Here is a .pdf version :
Click on the link and the download will initiate on your machine.
Thank you, Dr. Lexy…
I have to say, PMH, I am exceedingly disappointed by your choice of extract here. As someone who has never traded TA or indicators, and has a published trading record that no one would envy, how comes you are now taking the position of condemning TA as “fancy charts” which only “impose illusions on the human mind”. Hardly creates a level playing field for “discussion”.
There seems to be a trend that the more one loses the more one becomes an expert that should be listened to.
Having quietly got on with my indicator-based trading for many years, both as an institutional trader and subsequently as a retail trader, there is clearly nothing here for me to discuss. So i’ll leave the discussing to you and just get on with my trading. Good luck to you Frances, I think you are really going to need it!
Trading is not some kind of kid’s “game”, it is a serious business that involves huge amounts of peoples’ personal funds. It is real, it is dangerous, it ruins real peoples’ real lives if they do not treat it as serious. But, that is not what people want to hear and so I’m done here and I’ll leave you all to your dream…
Hi Keith, perhaps you are right.
I probably chose the wrong quote from the book to do it justice…
I was only doing so for the simple reason that of the (few) books on trading
that I have read, physical or virtual, this is the only one that says it will not
post pictures of past charts.
This is why I just said ‘discuss’, because I do not have an opinion: how could I have an opinion
for or against? There are, like you, and Lexy, lots of traders who use TA the ‘right’ way, meaning,
who do so professionally… It was not a way of saying ‘it is bad’…
The other comments are all valid, and, as ever, you are far ahead than most of us will ever be.
But the book looks good because it does deal with the issue of common misconceptions, so perhaps
I/others will find it helpful. Indeed, it does talk about traders blowing money after chasing a dream,
or treating it like a hobby.
I will post less on BP because I have nothing new to offer to the general public, since all my previous
threads have led to the realisation that I have a lot of learning to do, and that will be done away from
BP.
there is no such thing as a high probability winning trade. nobody knows ANY probability. it’s not quantifyable.
10 pip profit? where’s your stop loss? THAT’s the crucial question. if you lose 80 pips you’ll need 8!!! profitable trades to get even again.
coclusion: it’s NEVER EVER gonna work. trading is a lot more complicated. trust me on this one.
Dont forget the negative lot effect too! Its a killer!
When you have a loss (or 2,3,4… in a row) You have to trade with a reduced lot size! (or take more risk). So you now have to make a lot more winning trades to catch up!
This is where money management is very important. There are different strategies to use, but in the end its all about risk.
So if you are scalping, you have to have a very high win-loss ratio.
What is the probability that you will win everytime? and it’s sometimes very hard to find that one trade that will give you 10 pips. Moreover there are major news impacting the market on the opposite direction also. So in that case closing the charts after you put the trade is not a very good option.
The strategy that can SURELY profit 10 pips EVERYDAY is a Holy Grail. Why people so obsess with 10 pips strategies?
Cause it’s easy to calculate. Everyone dreaming about 10 100%sure-noloss-pips. You can then increase your lot size and buy new iphone, increase once again and get a car. Sadly the reality is almost always different.
Because it’s enough of a modest-sounding aim to get past the credibility gap, and to encourage people to feel that they’re not living in dreamland or chasing get-rich-quick schemes, if they aspire to it. So it has “plausibility” (to some people - these are typically people who imagine (a) that very high win-rates are achievable with small targets, and (b) that their own success-prospects are roughly in proportion to the win-rates they can achieve; they’re numerate enough to understand the power of compounding profits, but they’re often not experienced enough to understand anything at all about risk management :o ).
Maybe in theory. But I would put money that you wont be winning with anywhere near that level of consistency. That is the problem.
Ouch that hurt me and all I did was read it.
They just want to be at forex charts all day long, they are too attached to trading.
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There are lots of strategies in Forex Trading, we need to check that which strategy will work in which condition.
What strategy works and in which conditions it will tell you your practice. It will make you skilled how to deal with different situations. In forex nothing is final you may earn 100% inone trade or have to wait for days even for some pips of profit.
Hi Muhsin,
Here’s my 1cent opinion on some of your statement.
If a trader have some sort of a BIG edge, 50% return a month would not be hard for them at all.
There is about 20 trading day a month, say if you make 10 pip per day 50% of the time (meaning that, out of the 20 trading days you profit 10days and lose the other 10 days). Now my question is what is your trading edge? Making ONE TRADE a day,do you win more than 10days out of the 20 trading days?
To achieve 20% return,You have to win 15days out of 20days.
You need to win [(15days x 2% =30%) - (5days x 2%=10%)] =20% profit
If your trading methodology have such kind of a winning edge then what you have state would be accurate.
But one could hardly see the possibility of that in the market now, not seeing it won’t be possible but requires hard work and persistence!
Hi
Im a businesses owner and all round student of the school of hard knocks and parenthood (hope that gives me a bit of credibility)
I have been playing at demo accounts for about four years and have been really trying to grasp the whole Forex market as well as all the indicators and price action I can . I have got results and do seem to make more than I lose .But I know, as a small time poker player,when real money is involved the emotions take over .The question asked is a lot deeper then has been given respect , pulling apart the original maths and content is not getting with the real question .As a person with a reasonable grasp of the world , a good respect for money , and a whole bunch of dependents , from the fish in my tank , dogs and cats , the kids and family , mine and hers , to my friends and accountant etc .Please speak up , all those that have made the transition from their old jobs to a self sufficient trader .
This seems to be the one big question that never gets answered , everyone seems to be obsessed with the next indicator , time frame or reason not to make money .
No body is showing me the money , at least nobody that dosent run the place or sells us ( substitute your own crap that you have bought that dident work in life )
Hi Admiral,
My father claims it does, anyway …
I think you’re the first person here I remember who has played on demo accounts for as long as I did. I did the full 4 years (and didn’t even get time off for good behaviour, probably because my behaviour wasn’t good enough) before ever trading with a funded account.
Well, that puts you in a minority, for a start. 
I never had an “old job” (unless you count being a student), but I made the transition from knowing nothing to learning, practising on demo (for 4 years), to trading a real account without losing (for another 2-3 years) to [I]eventually[/I] making a living this way. And there are certainly a few other members here who have done the same.
Yes, indeed. This is true. As one would expect. Why would they? The only people who will ever “show you the money” are people selling or promoting something. (And even then, it’s often faked, or they’re showing you one profitable account and hiding ten other loss-making ones). That’s the real world of marketing.
But there are certainly pro-traders who are “vouched for”, one way or another. (Most of the ones I know myself are ex-institutional traders now working independently, but that won’t be true of many members here, probably. Actually I do know of at least one other, here, of whom it’s also probably true, given his own background as an institutional trader).
