Take a Break

[anon46398846]

Please do!

But how did you get into commodities and why such things as corn and wheat? Do you regularly check out different commodities (like you said with copper) if so, how? Do you back test somehow or just follow for a while?

.

Aren’t commodities also highly risky and subject to, for example, sudden impacts like weather changes, etc? Also, are there not also other related risks such as OPEC and pseudo-money/risk influences such as with gold?

Do you think one can trade commodities intraday like with currencies (which of course you do not believe one can trade intraday and make significant money!?)

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[lexys]

noone gets rich trading intraday …

… apart from a very significant proportion of the professional traders on the trading-floor of a few hundred financial institutions worldwide, and an admittedly much lower proportion of successful, independent traders, you mean?

you know what intraday trader gets rich? the one who trades intraday and gets lucky enough to make 20.000 into 100.000 in one year and after first year stops trading intraday and starts doing business and doubles his money every year. within 4 years that one becomes a millionaire.

Yes; there are some of those, too, I grant you.

you think currencies are less risky?

(I know you’re asking Manxx and not me, but …) I haven’t traded commodities enough to know from my own personal experience (oil is the only commodity I ever trade, and I’m in and out of CL futures in 10 minutes, usually), but I [U]suspect[/U] that overall, during their RTH, currencies [I]may well[/I] actually be slightly less risky, for retail traders; yes.

[anon46398846]

Yes; there are some of those, too, I grant you.

… apart from a very significant proportion of the professional traders on the trading-floor of a few hundred financial institutions worldwide, and an admittedly much lower proportion of successful, independent traders, you mean?

… …

[lexys]

show me a intraday trader who is doing intraday trades fir years and has a million

I [I]can[/I], Turbo. That’s my point: I [I]could[/I] show you a few (granted, they’re all ex-institutional traders now trading their own accounts independently but that doesn’t detract from my point which is simply that [U]there are some[/U], so you’re actually exaggerating!).

[anon46398846]

(I know you’re asking Manxx and not me, but …) I haven’t traded commodities enough to know from my own personal experience (oil is the only commodity I ever trade, and I’m in and out of CL futures in 10 minutes, usually), but I [U]suspect[/U] that overall, during their RTH, currencies [I]may well[/I] actually be slightly less risky, for retail traders; yes.

…

[anon46398846]

I [I]can[/I], Turbo. That’s my point: I [I]could[/I] show you a few (granted, they’re all ex-institutional traders now trading their own accounts independently but that doesn’t detract from my point which is simply that [U]there are some[/U], so you’re actually exaggerating!).

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[anon46398846]

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[lexys]

are they intraday traders?

Yes. I’m actually talking [I][U]only[/U][/I] about intraday traders (I know very few others - that’s just a “selection-bias statistic” because of my own background - I’m not for a moment suggesting that it’s representative of anything else, of course).

yes i am exaggerating when i say theres noone earning money on currencies

Indeed - for sure.

but im not exaggerating when i say the propotion of suceysfull people tradimg currencies (especially with theor own money) compared to proportion of sucessfull traders in stocks and commodities is much less.

I wouldn’t know … but what you say seems likely to me; I’m certainly not disputing it.

I suspect that’s largely because stock-trading is a hobby for a large number of people who wouldn’t really consider themselves “traders” at all, and some of them will doubtless be quite successful with it.

[lexys]

i said it a hundretvtimes in this forum and im pretty sure people are sick of hearing it (even you-lexy and i had an argument over it a year ago where you dissagreed with me) := currency trading is a pure 0-sum game.

Of course it is (apart from fees/commissions, obviously). I have often pointed this out, myself, in forum posts. How could it [I]not[/I] be?

from posts ive read from you the last 6 months i saw that now you aswell realized that currency trading is a zero sum game and ur agreeing with me.

Of course - I’ve never said (or thought) anything different.

then please aswell realize that in a zero sum game people cam gain only whem otger people loosw.

Obviously.

[anon46398846]

.

I suspect that’s largely because stock-trading is a hobby for a large number of people who wouldn’t really consider themselves “traders” at all, and some of them will doubtless be quite successful with it.

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[PipMeHappy]

If you had a 1000000 account you could trade spot forex with zero commissions by opening an account with privileges, which could mean a 10-pip move in EUR/USD, for example, would give you 1000 USD with zero leverage at 10 standard lots…

So you could earn $1000 every time you had an overall +10 pips P/L…

So then it would not matter if you traded currencies, commodities, etc… as long as the thing had a pulse

[lexys]

many people enjoying it and still much more losing their savings to this “hobby” while people having the “hobby” stocks do not lose that much money-even earning without knowledge.

Yes - I don’t disagree with you about this, at all.

I think it’s not altogether comparing like with like, simply because the aspiring forex-traders you’re talking about, in a place like this, include a large number of people who harbour ambitions of making a living from it (which I agree for a very high percentage of them will turn out to be totally unrealistic, and I even agree that it may be 99%), whereas with stocks typically it’s more “investing” than “trading”, and typically more a “hobby” than a “potential career”.

[eddieb]

I’m a bit like you, Manxx.
I don’t trade to get wealthy, not even to subsidise my income. FX was suggested to me by my wife, I was looking for a new hobby/project/interest and she thought I might enjoy it, and she was right.
If I make some money out of it, great. If I lose money, no worries, most hobbies cost something.
What I will say, perhaps because making money isn’t a big driver for me, is that I don’t feel any stress or pressure when I have a losing streak, nor do i get overexcited when im on a roll-its nice, obviously, but its not the be all and end all. What’s far more important for me is to see progress over time as this, imho, shows me that I understand what im doing and can adapt as circumstances change.

[anon46398846]

Yes - I don’t disagree with you about this, at all.

I think it’s not altogether comparing like with like, simply because the aspiring forex-traders you’re talking about, in a place like this, include a large number of people who harbour ambitions of making a living from it (which I agree for a very high percentage of them will turn out to be totally unrealistic, and I even agree that it may be 99%), whereas with stocks typically it’s more “investing” than “trading”, and typically more a “hobby” than a “potential career”.

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[PipMeHappy]

you got a good point there. and yet still[B] people in trying trading forex educate themself a million times more and more specialized than people hobbytrading stocks and still forex traders go broke.[/B] its 1st the wrong education and 2nd the market and the mechanics itself which are handed to the retail trader, which make it close to impossible to control the negative sides of psychology and therefore ultimately leads into fail.

Absolutely.

In the end, all these conversations we have are academic, in a way: we can just assume

that people like speed_bump, who is ‘in the know’, will look on and leave with a wry smile.

That does not help people who put in the time and sweat (and capital) in currencies only to see it vanish,

compared to those who do the same buying-and-holding stocks and seeing their money slowly appreciating.

Spot FX is one of the hardest things to master.

[forexcrisp]

There must be something like this in the life of very successful traders but traders like us that are struggling in the markets don’t like to take any break from trading.

[WinPsych]

blonde girls for sell? where? PM me i dont need many of them, 2-3 is enough

Haha calm down!

[WinPsych]

Following on from Eddie’s post, most of the above conversations impinge on a topic that has been on my mind to talk about for ages. I remember that I had a brief discussion about this with PMH a while back. It is a topic that concerns nearly all Newbies. Maybe now is a good time to talk about it.

I am referring, of course, to whether forex trading is suitable as a career providing a monthly income or as a capital accumulation process. These are two entirely different issues and require entirely different approaches.

I am sure that one reason why so many forex traders fail is because they are trying to produce exceptionally high results from exceptionally little capital.

Many people seem to see forex as a way out of poverty and/or a boring job and as a glamorous career providing great income, total freedom, and even social prestige, But is that a) achievable b) a realistic image.

If we concentrate purely on trading and ignore side products like selling signals etc then I think people should think very carefully before deciding to try forex as a career. Here are some thoughts:

As an income provider, trading [I]has [/I]to produce profits regularly and consistently. If you aim for even a few thousand per month then your winnings have to be at least a third more than that to cover the losses and leave a sufficient residue. This demands constant trading though all market conditions.

I have never understood the logic of talking about earning x% per period from forex. It never works like that. The rate of return is governed much more by the market itself than by the trader. One position in a long steep trend one month can earn far more than 50 trades in the next month as the market consolidates with no direction, irrespective of the skills of the trader. There is a huge amount of misinformation about how to measure success in trading but the fact is every market, every month, every trade, is different. You cannot project your future earnings.

Although one can get great thrills from trading daily at the start, it is worth reflecting whether you will still be so enthusiastic after 5yrs, 10yrs, even 40yrs? Where is forex trading going to take you in the future. You need to have a plan for the future beyond the point when pure trading no longer bites.

I can’t think of anything more soul-destroying than [I]having [/I]to trade even though you have come to hate it. Or maybe ill-health strikes (sitting by computers and mental stress are not the healthiest of activities for the human frame).

Markets and regulations change. What if trading becomes too complicated, restrictive or expensive for retail traders?

Once one starts to accumulate commitments like family, house loans, higher monthly electricity expenses etc, school fees, holidays etc the pressure to perform grows almost exponentially. Can one constantly meet these demands? Enforced downsizing is an incredibly difficult and unpleasant process for a family to go through (and actually most people in the western world should be doing exactly that as the expanding fight for diminishing resources is approaching a climax).

Then there is that day, in the distant future, called retirement. I know these days there are even 100 year olds driving cars - but do you still feel like trading then?

In a nutshell, trading as a career providing sole or main income [I]has [/I]to have as its goal [I]also [/I]accumulating great wealth to take you out of the need for a regular income - at some point, sooner or later, or is leading to a change of career at a later date.

On the other hand, trading for capital accumulation is a totally different ball game. There is no pressure to trade, your net winnings are surplus and not already pre-designated towards getting the car fixed, one can sit on positions longer term without any need for spending funds from it in the interim.

There is much more - but let’s hear your thoughts first

Good post Manxx.

In my opinion there are too many standard answers flying around on topics to which there are no ‘one size fits all’ solutions. Most of these standard answers are based on assumptions, where these assumptions come from…who knows?

Based on your own individual circumstances, experiences both inside and outside of trading, tolerances and life philosophies etc etc you enter the planning stage.

I never assume that others are seeing what i am seeing or that i am seeing what they are seeing for that matter. I also take into account that success is subjective as well as objective and therefore personal. We do not all begin at the same start line.

From what i have seen in this game you don’t want to add any negativity in the form of pressure as it affects performance. Pressures can be expectation, time, money, value systems etc. So the aim is to remove as much of that nonsense as is humanly possible and knowing exactly what to do beforehand when it is not. I also consciously practice this and can measure and review performance and improvement.

A monthly income or capital accumulation? I can see a bunch of advantages and disadvantages with both depending on an individuals circumstances and/or; a practical versus an academic platform. In the end though the only circumstances that are important when planning your ‘attack’ are your own.

[WinPsych]

Thanks WinPsych (seems you had a good night’s sleep! )

You said:
"I can see a bunch of advantages and disadvantages with both "

could you expand on that with some concrete examples. I think this is very important and extremely helpful for Newbies (if there are any readng here!) in planning their aims and ambitions.

Thanks!

The level of sleep was acceptable

Ok, lets say i have £10 million in the bank and set aside £1 million for trading. I could use the trading income every month to pay for bills and expenses. It may make more sense in that scenario than trading for capital accumulation again depending on the factors listed in my previous post.

If you have £100 in a trading account and make £40, it may be an idea to withdraw the £40 and buy yourself something ‘nice’ once in a while rather than going for capital accumulation, again…depending on the factors listed in my previous post.

If you have a £100k account a house and no mortgage or loans a monthly income may be for you…

If you have a £10k account instead of working 1 day per week in a part-time job you may choose to withdraw your profits every month.

I could do a bunch of scenario’s for capital accumulation too… but i think you get the idea.

[imi]

If you have £100 in a trading account and make £40, it may be an idea to withdraw the £40 and buy yourself something ‘nice’ once in a while rather than going for capital accumulation, again…depending on the factors listed in my previous post.

Withdrawing profits regularly from broker can be a good idea; i usually withdraw profits by leaving the necessary capital behind.