anyone has experiences trading the EUR/CHF?

[walkonwallstreet]

thanks you your advice. i will close all my position when EUR/CHF will hit 1.6800.

Originally Posted by gobreeze

walkonwallstreet,

The corrections you are concerned about in Feb, Aug, and Nov of this year all deal with risk aversion and carry trade sell off. Each of these sell offs were fast and furious. I remember watching the EUR/JPY sell off 200 pips in 2minutes only a few months ago. A short squeeze like that only show up as a long candle on the chartsduring a back test, but it is the reality of this market since Aug of this year. Just yesterday the GBPUSD had a range of 200pips in 45 minutes. When fear and greed hit the market it can be ruthless...and sometimes unpredictable.

If you are risking the majority of your account on the "hope" that the EUR/CHF makes new highs then you are foolish. You are overexposed to the crazy forces that define today's market. Please take some profit off the table and learn risk management. The price action in the last two days have worked in your favor (I think) and proved me wrong from Monday. That's great! I picked up 43 pips today on this pair trading against my analysis from Monday. But that could change so fast. You really have to pay defense in this game.

I hope your trade works out well and you make some $$.

[gobreeze]

Sounds like a plan which may work out. My alarm went off when you said that you could loose 60 to 70%. Have you set a stop loss? May I ask at what price would this trade no longer make sense?

[walkonwallstreet]

Originally Posted by gobreeze

Sounds like a plan which may work out. My alarm went off when you said that you could loose 60 to 70%. Have you set a stop loss? May I ask at what price would this trade no longer make sense?

i didn't lose 60-70%, my equity swing was down that much but now it went back to -10%. eur/chf is ranging and the main trend has been bullish since mid 2004.

im not longing eur/chf directly. i buy EUR/USD and buy USD/CHF at the sametime. buy low and sell high and collect interests

[gobreeze]

What you describe is a carry trade...which pays well when markets are calm. This strategy worked well for many years but has been painful at times this year.

These are uncertain times we are in. Please be careful.

My charts now tell me that 1.6800 is possible. My wave count and MAs have turned to the upside. You should be OK.

Good Luck!