Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

[pip huntter]

Dear Dale,

Many thanks for the add .thanks as well for the thanks giving as the dow is closed now so no way u r going to lose money today!!


Akram

[dpaterso]

By the way:

I've put some more thought into where / how to TP on those 'opportunistic counter' trades if you take them.

Take a look at the attached chart.

It's a 'good old fashioned' way to exit i.e. TP at the first 'downturn' (or 'upturn' if short) of your 'stock standard' Momentum Indicator!!! Many other systems use this method.

Remember: these are 'opportunistic' trades so you're not looking for, nor should be expecting, to be in these trades for long periods of time particularly seeing that you are ACTUALLY going AGAINST the DMS / ADX signals so the idea it 'get in' and 'get out' with a little profit (although as I mentioned on the chart: that 'little (opportunistic) trade' was good for about +1 000 pips or so in a few days which 'ain't to bad' if you ask me)!!!

ALSO: if things keep going the way they are then we COULD VERY WELL SOON be getting some new signals on the sort of 'more popular' pairs e.g. GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, and so on and so forth. Oddly enough: ALL my current positions are on the more 'obscure' (exotic???) pairs (with the exception of EUR/USD and, depending on whether or not you consider 'AUD' ' and 'NZD' 'odd', then some of those as well).

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[sverigesson]

Dale,

Hey, thanks for including me on 'the list'! Unfortunately, I haven't gotten the indicators. My wife was on our account, and I think she might've deleted your email, thinking it was junk. Oh well. If its not too much trouble, send them over again. I'd like to start playing around with them when I get home tonight. Thanks a million!

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

P.S. You never know how hard it is to type one handed until your 4 month old daughter is asleep on your other arm!

[dpaterso]

Done.

Now open an account and GO MAKE MONEY!!!

I'm back down to 10% right now by the way BUT I remember from 'the good old days' (about six weeks back) that once you start closing the DAY in profit it tends to just grow incrementally after that. Unfortuanately though: Wilder is quite correct when he notes that price always moves down quicker than it moves up (just take a look at the Dow if you've ANY doubt) so I'm not really expecting to see these positions 'in orbit' any time soon but 'slowly but surely does the trick'!!!

Enjoy!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

(I WISH we could have our signatures back. I'm TIRED of having to type my website address every time!!! It's a 'crass' attempt to find more 'clients' of course so that I can 'jack up' my lot sizes again and 'cover up' the last six weeks or so as quickly as possible. If NOTHING else: at LEAST I'm honest)!!!

[dpaterso]

By the way:

I've been meaning to post about this and keep forgetting:

You'll ALL be pleased (shocked???) to know that I've FINALLY seen the 'error of my ways' and NO LONGER 'Enron' positions!!! It would seem that Craig was QUITE RIGHT when he mentioned that he did not see any merit in it.

To be VERY honest: what I thought was the 'psychological benefit' ACTUALLY counted against me in the long run. I'm surprised that nobody asked BUT (in case some of you were wondering) I DID eventually 'cave' on AUD/NZD (about six to eight weeks back). The fact of the matter is that all you're really doing is just carrying loss after loss after loss and you're never giving yourself a chance to turn those losers into winners by stopping and reversing. Bottom line: 'take your losses like a MAN' and move on. There really is no other way and this business of hedging two positions on the same pair is ABSOLUTE nonsense and only a way of prolonging the inevitable.

Sometimes we THINK we have 'all the answers' but you know what: there are certain things that THOUSANDS of people have ALREADY 'proved' so WHY go 'against the grain' or try to 'reinvent the wheel'!!!

MAYBE I'm FINALLY 'getting this'!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

(Back to 16% again, maybe even 17%. A close around HERE would be good)!!!

By the way: IF you've read the ENTIRE thread then you'll know that gains of between 50% and 70% PER MONTH CAN be QUITE common IF you just 'stick' with the ORIGINAL trading systems!!! My RECORD in one month was OVER 200% but I HAVE to admit that I was trading instruments that I had NO business trading and, ironically, it was these SAME instruments that 'landed me in hot water' over the past few weeks. One PARTICULAR 'culprit' that 'stands out' is Brasil's Bovespa Index!!! ONE day I'll 'conquer it' though. ONE day!!! But it's not going to even be attempted with under $1 000 000 capital in my account(s)!!!

[sverigesson]

Dale,

I had noticed that a while back, and good for you. From a purely mathematical standpoint, its just setting you back (course, you figured this out already!).

If you've sent the indicators to me, I still haven't gotten them. Maybe something wrong with my email? Though I don't see why it shouldn't be able to recieve messages from you. Bleh... well, maybe try one more time, and if not, I'll sign up for YM tonight and get an email through there that you can send it to. Thanks regardless! We all owe you a lot.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

[dpaterso]

OK, I'll send them again.

I'm using the email address that you posted earlier on today???

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

By the way: the messages are not being returned or anything like that so I have no clue as to why you're not getting them. I think I'll send you JUST an email and see if the attachment is causing a problem.

Ummm!!! 'Humpty Dumpty here!!! I have you at GMAIL and not HOTMAIL!!! SORRY!!!

[dpaterso]

You know:

Since I downloaded and posted a copy of that interview with 'the old man' something has been bothering me.

I CERTAINLY appears to believe that 'The Delta Phenomenon' is 'THE one' to be using and, in the interview, he states that it's made 100% profit for a number of years (however many he mentioned).

What bothers me is this:

I KNOW beyond a SHADOW of a doubt that IF YOU FOLLOW OUR ('NEW CONCEPTS') TRADING SYSTEMS WITHOUT WAVER there is A-B-S-O-L-U-T-E-L-Y NO WAY that you can make ANYTHING LESS than 10% per month and that, even if you're not 'compounding' profits / gains, is 120% per annum and as I said: that's the BARE minimum. So what's the 'big deal' about 'The Delta Phenomenon' anyway is my bother??? When I read this it makes me wonder if I'm missing something or have just been 'plain lucky'!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[kaalilaatikko]

Here we go again - I'm away a couple of days and there is a list of posts lengthier than ever to catch up and digest.

The new findings with ADX and DMS really seem interesting - but I'll postpone examining that in further detail for a while now. I have reduced my trading considerably recently because of drawbacks and some other commitments I have managed to become involved with recently, and because I intend to get a good grasp on FSS. I have some automation for it up, but I'm going to need a lengthy period of testing and tuning the trading management before daring to comment too much about the results. I do believe in FSS, but I think that you need a filter for it to get the best out of it. ADX is the first candidate I'm thinking about. And I now want to stick to one system only to learn it properly and to be able to concentrate well enough, and FSS it'll be for now.

Dale discussed about the long trades with DMS and shorter trades and whipsaws with FSS. I think that here we are close to comparing apples and oranges. It depends on your trading personality what suits you better. I have found out that I feel very uncomfortable in long-term trades unless the positions are small enough, and that effectively dampens the expected profits. And on the other hand, what is the difference between a whipsaw and a successful exit? In some cases it is very clear, but in some others it can be a bit more subtler thing. I mean: if you are trading long-term, you expect to stay in a trade long, and a shorter-term system may look like being full of whipsaws. But viewing the same from the shorter-term point of view it might look like the longer-term system wouldn't be utilising the sub-trends efficiently. And both views would be correct in their terms.

The remark about the recent best times of trading forex, synchronising with NYSE, is interesting. I haven't looked at much intraday charts recently, but it has made me wonder to see that there is some real action going in the charts at times when they used to be quite silent - and what would have been better timing for me.

J.

[dpaterso]

Hey J.,

Welcome back: we've (well I have) been missing you!!!

Everything you say is 100% correct and I agree with you.

I MAY have gone 'just a tad' overboard by 'slating' the FSS (SIS). I DON'T believe it's something to be used on ANY timeframe shorter than the daily timeframe and this really is where I started coming 'unstuck' with it i.e. I tried 'chasing' on the 1 hour (and sometimes even shorter) timeframe and it really does not work I'm afraid. The whipsaws and SAR's at losses just 'eat you up'. Well that's what happened to be anyway.

As far as ADX and the ADX Oscillator is concerned: I think it's these past trends that have 'got me going' to be honest. If I can just 'catch' ONE of those +7 000 pips trends on a few instruments I'll be the happiest man alive and, if that means I only place an order every two months, well so be it!!! I'll chop my own hands off if that's the only way I'm going to stop myself from messing with those trades if I get them!!!

Of course NOW I also agree that ADX is 'THE THING' to use as a filter. Simply put (and Wilder himself, as you know, suggests this in 'the book' anyway): take only long trades when +DI is above -DI and short trades when +DI is below -DI. From what I've seen: this works almost 99% of the time and the only trades really that go 'pearshaped' are the VERY LAST ones i.e. when the reversal comes and the DI's cross the opposite way.

One last thing (this is to everyone i.e. this is not part of my reply to J,):

I've posted another chart to demonstrate WHY you do not go in 'at market' with the DMS. I know that some people doubt my 'take' on this but if you have a look at the chart attached you'll see my 'logic' and, if you REALLY think about, the text in 'the book' is contradictory i.e. 'the old man' actually says that when you get an opposite signal there is a good chance that the price will reverse ('The Exteme Point Rule') so KNOWING this: does it make sense to go in 'at market' when you already KNOW that the price is POSSIBLY / PROBABLY going to retrace I ask you!!! And not only that: the few points / pips that you MAY lose by placing a STOP ORDER to 'get in' really, in the 'bigger ADX picture' will NOT 'make or break' the trade I assure you.

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).