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11-27-2008, 03:48 PM
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18% now and counting!!!
(I'm not 'boasting' here I promise. I'm just trying to demonstrate the 'power' of the ADX Oscillator and the daily timeframes. I'll not KEEP on posting the percentage gains of course so don't worry just bear with me for now). It's worth noting here that of my current positions: the ones showing the HIGHEST profit BY FAR are ALL 'Counter DMS Signal' or 'Counter Extreme Point' trades (we have to find 'names' for these types of trades PLEASE)!!! Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). 
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11-27-2008, 07:15 PM
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Oy,
I just noticed something very disturbing or perplexing or both. When I posted details of my experimental 'Range Factor': Oil (WTI0109) had 332 days in the chart, ADX indicated a range for 6 of those days, and the 'Range Factor' was calculated to be 55, based on this information. I've just looked at the same chart now and noticed that there are 467 days in the chart, ADX indicated a range for 31 of those days, and the 'Range Factor' is now calculated to be 15 based on THIS information. BUT I ONLY CREATED THAT DATA ON TUESDAY THIS WEEK!!! So HOW did my Oil chart pick up an extra 132 days between Tuesday and today??? I've checked all the other charts and they are correct i.e. no changes other than the days that have passed but this concerns me deeply. OK: Oil is still 'top of the pops' but how can 132 days of data (allowing for the days that have passed since Monday) simply 'appear' 'as if by magic'??? What's even MORE worrying is WHERE have they been added!!! Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). Edit: 'The plot thickens'!!! I've just worked out that the number of bars being displayed in the daily charts, as well as the data start dates, differ depending on whether your chart 'Style' is set to 'ASK' or 'BID'!!! And here's where it get's REAL strange: It's ONLY the indices and Oil that exhibit this 'anomaly'. I've checked the forex pairs and some individual stocks and everything appears 'normal'. I've sent an email to Delta requesting an explanation. Obviously I'll post details of the outcome of this request here when I get the same back from them!!! And it's SO strange you know: I noticed before that when I was using the ASI (SIS) on the Dow: when I switched between 'BID' and 'ASK' the indicator would appear to 'jump' (although the actual 'plot' or 'shape' of the ASI was still the same). At the time I thought it was 'just me' and really didn't bother with it. Well: I'm NOW bothered!!! Last edited by dpaterso; 11-27-2008 at 07:51 PM.
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11-27-2008, 07:51 PM
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Guys,
Hey, J! Welcome back! I was hoping you weren't gone for good. By the way, nice to officially meet you. Dale: So, let me see if I have your 'Range Factor' down... You've calculated which instruments have done the most trending/least ranging in the past so many days, and (I don't know the exact procedure, bear with me) give it a number. Higher is better (more trending). So, if I remember your post a while back, most instruments land somewhere between 2 or 3 and 5 or so, right? Which, even given this new reduced number, means that oil is leaps and bounds above anything else, right? So, trend following systems should clean up, right? Of course, you're not going to get many signals on it either, right? Oh, and Dale, I did get your last message. Thanks a ton, I'll try and fiddle with some stuff and do some studying this weekend. I am to be ready and able Monday morning to follow in your footsteps. As a note... I don't know if I'm shooting too high here, but here's the scoop on my situation (for everyone's consideration, whether or not they care!) (Also, I, unlike Dale, am not afraid to discuss my financial arrangements with my client  )My partner is considering giving me 10,000 dollars with which to start my account (probably 2,000 at first, until I get fully into the swing of things). As compensation for my time, he's also considering giving me 50% of the profits. As a comfortable living, I feel that I need to make at least 8-10% ($400-$500) a week at first. Of course, as the balance starts growing (minus my paycheck) this minimum number will decrease. On the other hand, I could get by with a fair amount less until things pick up. I hope this is not too unrealistic, given the state of the markets (I have no doubt that given normal market conditions, these systems can easily do 10% a week).  Then again, if I could make 18% as fast as Dale has currently, I'd be set for a few weeks. Anyways, just letting people know, and I'm very open for comments and suggestions (and don't worry, people, strict money management will be at the core of my trading!).Alright, its 6:50 EST, and I'm already ready for bed, though the wife and I are heading to the movies for a double date with her sister. Regardless, I'll catch you all tomorrow! Happy Pips, Son of Sweden Edit: Oh, and as for the Delta P. (Shame on you, Dale, I thought those words were forbidden here from now on! ), I have confidence that although there is some interpretation (ie, its not completely mechanical like "New Concepts"), there must be some great potential in it... I mean, why would 'the old man' pay so much money and dedicate years of his life to its study and abandon "New Concepts" like a red-headed stepchild (just kidding, I'm sure he still used a lot of it in his trading ) if it didn't make a sh*t ton of money? There simply must be something there, since I refuse to believe that 'the old man' is just pulling the wool over all our eyes (not to mention, why are all these people shelling out big bucks to be Delta members and 'Directors' if the darn thing doesn't even work?) If its just a con, then its a pretty enormous, far reaching, "multimillion dollar organization" kinda con. See what I'm saying, people?Well, that ends my rant. Catch you all later! Last edited by sverigesson; 11-27-2008 at 07:59 PM.
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11-27-2008, 10:34 PM
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11-28-2008, 04:08 AM
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It'd ALIVE (the thread I mean)!!!
Good MORNING everyone!!! Good FRIDAY morning everyone!!! (still 18% but no signals to SAR which is fantastic)!!! sverigesson: I'm happy that you're happy!!! Let me tell you this: ASSUMING that YOU, UNLIKE ME (although HOPEFULLY it will NOT happen again), have the ability to simply TRADE any or all of the trading systems 'in the book' WITHOUT trying to get TOO CLEVER: there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON ON EARTH that you cannot start making clear profit right from day one!!! Honestly: it was the reason I started this thread in the first place. I saw NO reason for others to have to go down the path that I did when I first started out here. True: I've lost money WITH these systems as well BUT I am 1 001% sure that when this has happened: I've either not been concentrating, strayed from the trading systems, been overanalysing things, been getting 'ahead of myself', or have become impatient. If you don't allow yourself to fall into these 'traps': you'll be 'good to go' right from the outset!!! And I want to tell you something else that someone on another thread posted when replying to a question that was posed as to whether or not they'd quit their 'day job' yet because their trading was going so well: the reply was 'no, they had not' BUT something very interesting happened along the way: EVEN ALTHOUGH this particular person is now making MORE money than he is earning at his 'day job', going to his 'day job' has become an absolute pleasure (and, of course, he's getting paid 'both ways). Now this is something that I would NEVER have expected to happen or hear from someone. You DO lose a lot, personally, by not having contact with people on a daily basis i.e. this IS a very lonely occupation for a wide variety of reasons. I just found this a very interesting 'take' on things is all. (Don't get me wrong: I'm not going to run out and get a 'day job'. In this country of mine: I'm ALREADY too old, and, to be BRUTALLY honest, me being a white South African male does NOT count in my favor EVEN IF I wished to entertain the idea. And this comment is NOT a 'racial slur' nor is it intended to offend anyone. For better or for worse: this is a statement of fact. NOT that I mind though. I love my country and I like where it's going so I'm happy. For one thing: we have had exactly one bank failure in my forty three years and that was due to fradulent practices on the part of the CEO's NOT because of our economy)!!! As far as my 'Delta Phenomenon' comments are concerned (to be honest I was unsure as to whether to post them HERE or on YOUR thread): it was just an observation. It would ACTUALLY be a FANTASTIC challenge would you not say i.e. we 'pit' ourselves AGAINST 'The Delta Society' in a sort of 'annual competition'!!! THAT appeals to me BIG TIME!!! (And 'winners take all')!!! And the more I think about it: WHY would being able to 'predict' the market be so important ANYWAY??? Now I know that statement makes NO sense but think about it: OUR (the 'New Concepts') trading systems put you in the right direction of the market anyway (eventually anyway i.e. you MAY have to get stopped and reversed once or twice before you're finally going 'with the market' but that's 'the name of the game' is it not)??? On the other hand: I do NOT believe that's the way 'the old man' makes his money now i.e. by offering 'Directorships' (they ain't cheap as you probably know and this in itself is a GOOD reason for my saying this i.e. if you paid THAT kind of money on an annual basis and still lost money and did not MAKE those types of gains believe me: it would be COMMON knowledge by now. People don't, as a rule, talk about their gains but when they've lost money because they feel they've been 'done in': they're VERY vocal and will tell ANYONE who is prepared to listen and, with the 'Internet at hand', there are MANY people who are prepared to listen)!!! This is why I say to my clients: no legal agreement on planet earth carries the same weight as my 'online reputation'!!! Anyway: I wish you (and everyone else of course) the VERY best with these trading systems and indicators. I KNOW they work. It's just ME who doesn't 'work' sometimes!!! (Come to think about it: don't you all think it's about time 'the old man' starts paying me a commission, you know, a little bit of a 'share' of 'The Delta Phenomenon' 'takings'??? Only kidding: it's BECAUSE he does not pay me that my neutrality and objectivity cannot be questioned of course!!! It'd be nice though, you know, trade with $1 000 000 lots!!! THAT would give Deltastock and GCI something to think about!!! I can just imagine them saying: 'WOW. NOW this guys REAL serious'!!!). sirkeen: Thanks for your input. I thought about that myself last night but arrived at the conlusion that it should not matter (obviously). The only thing I can think of is that there are three seperate sets of data somewhere on some server and the data for the three different 'Styles' (quotes) is not 'matching up'. I know that when the Oil contracts expire: for the first few days you see BOTH contracts i.e. two seperate instruments / charts. The 'newer' of the two will only contain one or two days worth of data but then, when the previous contract is closed, this data gets 'tagged on' to the beginning of the new contract so you then have a 'full' chart again. But this does not explain what I've found (and I've not yet had a reply but, knowing Delta, this should happen this morning). Look: it's not affecting anything REALLY (well other than my 'Range Factor' calculation which I'm not sure as YET has any merit). But I'm just that kind of person that gets worried when I see things like this because, of course, the next question is: 'what ELSE is missing' (if anything)??? Have a WONDERFUL day everyone!!! Later as always. Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). Edit: OK well, 'true to form' as always, I've just received a response from Delta's Customer Support: Quote:
Last edited by dpaterso; 11-28-2008 at 04:16 AM.
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11-28-2008, 06:09 AM
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You know:
The content of this post may or may not count against me when it comes to finding new clients but I'm posting it anyway. I am hoping that this post will serve as a reminder to myself for the future. Of one thing I'm sure: if THIS post does not convince you of the merits of simply TRADING these systems then I don't think that anything will. I quote from a previous post of mine: Quote:
At around the end of August / beginning September: I had the capital to be trading lot sizes of around $1 600 as per our money management rules. Now let me stop talking about 'pips and points' and start talking in terms of REAL money. The four trades detailed above (and let me add this: these are instruments that I have always traded i.e. I'm not just 'cherry picking' these instruments because of the trades. I NORMALLY trade those VERY SAME instruments regardless) would have netted the following REAL money amounts based on my lot sizes and capital management: (I am using TODAY'S exchange rates to determine the $ value per pip / point movement so the amounts detailed below will be 'out' slightly but, in the 'bigger picture of things', it's becomes evident that even a couple of thousand USD difference really would in no way have made a material difference to the outcome): 6 944 pips on GBP/JPY: Lot size: 207 000 units. USD per pip movement: $21.34. Profit in USD: $148 184.96. 4 776 pips on EUR/JPY: Lot size: 248 000 units. USD per pip movement: $26.04. Profit in USD: $124 367.04. 23 982 pips on USD/SEK: Lot size: 248 000 units. USD per pip movement: $4.02. Profit in USD: $96 407.64. 2 684 points on the Dow: Lot size: 3 units. USD per point movement: $3.00 Profit in USD: $8 052.00 TOTAL profit on the above trades: $377 011.64 (excluding a POSSIBLE SAR at a loss now and then which again would not have had any material effect on the outcome). When converted back to my currency at todays exchange rate: R3 743 725.59. Of course: the above, as I said, may be slightly higher because I'm using todays exchange rates (although this would be to a large extent negated by the long USD/SEK position) and have not bothered to work out the cost of the odd SAR at a loss (which, on these trades, only happened once or twice). My TOTAL committment to clients (excluding bonuses but including guarantees) is around $150 000 at present. The total arrears on my car and my house is around $26 686.81. Now let's say that I split the profit 50/50 over and above the guarantees and this gets paid as the bonus: My clients could have been paid out EARLY somewhere in the region of $192 505.82 (profit excluding capital and including guarantee amount and bonuses) which would represent a nett gain on capital for each of them (on average of course) of somewhere in the region of 271.13% leaving me with a nett proft (for the hard work that I didn't do) of $113 505.82. After settling the two large and most 'pressing' arrear amounts of $26 686.81: I'd be left with $86 819.01 or R862 980.96 which (if I did not use some of it to have a nice festive season) would have been enough to SETTLE my car and approximately 50% of my outstanding mortgage. In addition: I would have NOT ONLY traded the above four instruments i.e. there would probably have been at least another four or five trades going and, based on the instruments / pairs that I 'as a rule' will look at, they would all have turned out roughly the same way. And all of this could have materialsed between the end of August and the close last Friday afternoon. Now as I said: if THIS does not 'shock you into submitting to these trading systems then NOTHING will!!! And, although the above trades are based on the DMS, I believe that the VS and FSS (SIS) would have generated the same amount of profits. EVEN IF THEY DID NOT and I'm 50% 'out' i.e. they generated 50% LESS profit: I'm sure it's REAL obvious that EVEN THAT would have been ABSOLUTELY 'OUT OF THIS WORLD' for most of us!!! I don't think I'm disclosing any information that is of a confidential nature here so I don't see it upsetting anyone. If it does: then please let me know and I'll delete the post. I have nothing more to say on this matter. The figures speak for themselves. FOLLOW THE SYSTEMS. You cannot imagine how 'sobering' the above is to a person and you do NOT want to experience this type of regret!!! Of course I'll make it up but just think what being able to 'make good early' on my guarantees would have done for my business and my psyche (not to mention how happy it would have made my mortgage lender, which is one of our four major banks, and Chrysler Finance)!!! Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). Edit: And oh (just so that you people don't think that my life is ALL 'moonlight and roses'): Right now I'm down to 6% nett gain on capital. Just letting you know that this is how things go. The 'trick' is to simply 'hang in there'. Last edited by dpaterso; 11-28-2008 at 06:52 AM.
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11-28-2008, 08:10 AM
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Hello Dale,
woow good work man u spent all these time coding all these indicators and put them in a chart and u r saying u r getting old and it is hard for u to get a decent job. coz u are white!!!! Any ways the DMS thing i think it is the one to stick to it i know the problem with it is when to enter or when to reverse or when to expect that the market will trend if u r clever enough and u know it or expecting it before it happens then u r on the right track ad for the counter ADX trade after i saw most of the pairs it is now obvious that this man had spend plenty of time trying to get an unbeatable system but the key is to follow it same like what he stated he mentioned that the ADXR shouldn't be below 20 other wise u have to follow another system but i can see that even when it is below 20 some times it is not wise not to take the trade. Regards, Akram
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11-28-2008, 09:55 AM
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Hello,
I think I mentioned before: I strongly agree that if ADX is below both +DI and -DI: it's a strong signal to 'stop trading' or at least 'stop trading a trend following system'. I've not yet been convinced, however, that ADXR being below 20 is a reason to 'stop trading a trend following system'. Now I don't know if it's just because we now have the ADX Oscillator or what but from what I can see: when ADXR is below 20 it's a GOOD reason to TRY to get into a DMS trade (which, as you know, is a trend following system). The reason I say this is that it's obvious (to me anyway) that when ADXR is below 20 (which is indicated on the ADX Oscillator lines as 'thicker' lines i.e. not the 'thickest' lines i.e. the 'thickest' lines indicate when ADX is below both +DI and -DI): the instrument is consolidating and a breakout is eventually going to occur and you will invariably be on the 'right side' of the breakout. Using this 'method' just ties up capital that goes nowhere for a slightly longer period of time BUT you are 'in' the trade a lot earlier. Comments and other interpretations are, as always, welcome!!! Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). Last edited by dpaterso; 11-28-2008 at 12:28 PM.
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11-28-2008, 12:12 PM
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'Down' now 15%!!!
I see 'Murphy' and his 'Law' are alive and well today!!! Regards, Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net). Edit: Never mind!!! 'Murphy' has nothing to do with it. It's 'Black Friday' (the day after Thanksgiving is all)!!! I now remember sitting here at exactly this same time last year shorting retailer stocks because 'the end of the retail world as we know it' had come. Comes Monday morning: sales were not as bad as expected and the Dow rallied (taking with it ???/JPY etc.). You're not 'catching' me THIS time around!!! This time I'm 'armed to the chart'!!! Last edited by dpaterso; 11-28-2008 at 12:25 PM.
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11-28-2008, 02:05 PM
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Dale,
Sorry I didn't warn you! I was gonna mention that yesterday, but it slipped my mind. My bad. Anyways, I'm getting ready to head out to my second thanksgiving with the in-laws, so I will catch you all later.Then, tomorrow I tear myself away from my "goofing off" (read, video games), and really try to get some work done! Happy Pips (and leftover turkey, if you're a fellow American), Son of Sweden
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