Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

[dpaterso]

I must say that now that I'm ACTUALLY concentrating on what I'm doing: many things are 'falling nicely into place'.

I've attached two charts of CAD/JPY to demonstrate why I've always said to NEVER enter AT MARKET (using a market order) with ANY of these trading systems (excepting of course the TBPS). I think it's quite clear from the charts why!!!

One thing I've not mentioned this week: now and then I've been given and appropriate signal to use the TBPS and so far I've had a 100% success rate i.e. the TP target has always been reached. I believe that this increase in profitiability / performance is largely due to the fact that the TBPS 'indicator' only 'fires off' a signal the ADX is in the correct 'state', the MF's are indicating a trade, AND a simple momentum EMA / oscillator is giving a confirmation of the trade direction. This limits the number of trade signals you're going to get BUT it appears to ALMOST ENSURE that the TBPS trade is taken in the right direction. For those of you who do not trade at Delta and therefore don't have the indicators: all I'm saying is that in ADDITION to ADX being below both +DI and -DI (and / or ADX is below 20 or ADXR is below 20): I'm using a simple momentum indicator / oscillator. If the MF is giving the trade direction as long then the momentum indicator / oscillator must be above zero and if the MF is giving the trade direction as short then the momentum indicator / oscillator must be below zero. Simple as that. Now of course one could argue that if the instrument / pair is trading in a range then there IS no momentum but this is apprantely not the case i.e. even when ADX is indicating a range the momentum indicator / oscillator is not 'flat' and still indicates light momentum. If the momentum indicator / oscillator is indeed flat then, of course, no signal will be 'fired off'.

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[sverigesson]

Dale,

Phew! Things were a little quiet there yesterday (maybe because of the NFP?) and I was worried you had made a hojillion dollars yesterday and were never coming back!

Anyways, speaking of the TBPS, I've actually been looking at it in 'the book' and I'm thinking about tinkering with it a bit. Just wondering what constants you'd recommend using on your indicator? I assume you advocate a ADX period of 7 for it now, but what about the Momentum EMA period?

Thanks in advance.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

[dpaterso]

Yelo.

Yes I've noticed: this thread tends to move with 'quick hard bursts of energy' and then 'nothing' for a while (like the Dow)!!!

I'm using 7 periods 'throughout' right now. As I said: so far it's working well. Unfortuanately: the TBPS does not generate HUGE profits but it at least gives SOME excitement 'every other day' while you're waiting for some of those 'MONSTA' DMS/VS/SIS/FSS signals to 'fire off'.

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[sverigesson]

Dale,

Yeah, you must remember, I've been looking for 'something to pass the time' as far as these systems go. If I can get a decent profit every couple of days out of this system, then I'd be just tickled!

Alright, I'm switching everything over to 7, now that I know that it's universal. Thanks a heap, sensei!

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

P.S. By the way, Dale, I'd been meaning to ask... In Deltastock, is there any way to save a chart configuration and then easily load it onto other charts I have open? It's a bit of a hassle to go through 20 charts and change all the indicators by hand, ya know? Thanks in advance!

P.P.S. Also, let me see if I get your TPBS indicator correctly... it uses the momentum rule as seen in the book, but it also only gives a signal if the conditions for the ADX is met, right?

[sverigesson]

Dale,

Ok, maybe I'm over posting today (but what else is there to do on a saturday morning?), but I'm just feeling very awed.

Why, you ask? Well, I've been looking over the past few months, and I've just realized (as you've been saying)... Looking at the DMS, if one would have followed the entry rules to the letter... There has been a disgusting amount of money to have been made! I'm really just amazed at how well it seems to work over fairly long time frames. I'm going to definitely stick with it and see how it goes.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

[dpaterso]

Hey, post as much as you like. Nobody else is (Craig, 'Father Ted', Randon, Nick, YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE)!!!

EVEN IF I HAVE TO SAY SO MYSELF: the ADX Oscillator 'works magic' for the DMS from what I can see. Simply obey the trading rules in the book and you're definitely 'good to go' I reckon.

Regarding 'templates' at Delta:

Delta has no such thing as 'templates' (like Metatrader). HOWEVER: every change that you make to an existing chart gets copied to every new chart that is opened (note I said 'new' chart i.e. not one that's already been opened before). What I do (especially after a MAJOR change to the indicators) is delete all the chart data (using one of those batch files that I sent to you and / or posted on the thread) and then open a chart, make all my changes to that chart i.e. correct period, indicators, etc. and then close that chart. Once I close that chart those settings are saved. Each time I open a new chart thereafter the settings that I've just made are copied to the new chart. So: I open a chart for every single instrument so that they all have the same default settings. Once I've done that then (if necessary) I can go to individual charts and make changes there and then those changes will be 'particular' to that instrument's chart.

The TBPS 'indicator' gives you signals under the following conditions:

ADX is below BOTH +DI and -DI OR ADX is below 20 OR ADXR is below 20.

The MF (Momentum Factor) is calculated as per 'the book'.

A 7 period (same period chosen for ADX) momentum oscillator / indicator confirms the direction of the trade as indicated by the MF (Momentum Factor).


The use of the momentum oscillator is 'extra' to the system. Without this addition the TBPS 'fires off' far too many signals to trade in the WRONG direction for my liking. This limits the amount of signals 'fired off' but almost ensures that the signals that you act on DO hit the TP.

And remember: you're ALWAYS waiting for the CLOSE before you take any action i.e. the very last bar in the chart (the one that is currently forming) is of no consequence with ANY of these systems. You MUST wait for the bar to CLOSE and then follow whatever the indicators are telling you on this newly closed bar i.e. 'yesterdays bar is always your signal bar'. RIGHT NOW it's easy because your signal bar closed on Friday (obviously) so that's where you'd be taking signals from before the open tomorrow night but during the week you MUST wait for the current bar to CLOSE before acting.

I've attached a chart showing a valid signal for Sunday night. BEWARE on a Sunday night at the open though i.e. the price may 'gap' against you i.e. it may move IN your FAVOR at the open. DO NOT THEN take the trade. Either ignore it or wait for a pullback to Friday's close (or better still: wait for a pullback PAST Friday's close and then initiate the trade). This is the TBPS so every point (pip) counts. If you've missed a trade because of the opening gap you've missed it and that's all there is to it. DO NOT 'jump in late'. Rather wait until the close on Monday night. That way there is no opening gap to worry about.

But it's simple really. If you get a red bar you go short at market and if you get a green bar you go long at market. Immediately thereafter set your TP and SL and sit back and wait. That's it really. All is taken care of by the TBPS 'indicator'. Obviously: if your TP or SL is not hit during the trading day then you need to follow the rules of the TBPS as laid out in 'the book'.

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[pip huntter]

Hello everyone,

Things was so bad last week lots of signals were fired off but no luck so far on them they all show a nice loss hopefully it will gain some profit next week.

On the other hand i feel it is the time to trade DMS as it is really the end of they year and the price always goes crazy in one direction as it happens to me last year with the psar I was able to double my account in this month any ways let us see how things going.

Regards,

Akram

[dpaterso]

Hello again,

I agree Akram. As I said before: from what I see on just about each and every chart: everything is sort of 'stretched to breaking point'. Even me NOT being able to read chart patterns and stuff like that: take a look at the number of charts that have things like double or triple bottoms or tops and 'stuff' like that. All we need are the DMS signals to 'fire off' and I believe we're 'good to go' for a GOOD while. It's the waiting that kills you though!!!

Regards,

Dale. (forexbrokersonline.net).

[sverigesson]

Guys,

Thanks, Dale, for your reply. Next time I do major 'chart fiddling', I may just try that. As for the indicator, thanks for the explanation. I already gathered the parts about waiting for the close, but thanks for clearing up some of the 'inner workings' (and that you go in at market right after the close, that's always a good piece of info to be reminded of, since it's different from the other systems). Also, I'm not interested in trying to trade the sunday night signals, so I don't think that applies to me.

So, you guys think the DMS is going to do well later this month? I'm really considering trying to get my Delta live account up and running asap in order to catch some of the signals which I know are brewing (some instruments look like their just ready to 'burst', if you know what I mean). Looking at it's recent performance, it should be easy money once the signals happen. I'll see if I can arrange to get things rolling soon... I'd hate to trade these signals on demo and have them all be huge winners.

Happy Pips,
Son of Sweden

[pip huntter]

Hello Dale and son of sweden,

Yes i am sure about it december is a one way up or down i know i am might not be a pro to say such a thing but it really happens before and i am not encouraging u just to open positions as much as u can i am just saying we need to watch what is going to happen this week.

regards,

Akram