Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

[randont]

"Hi folks, I am just so excited I could 'sh1t'!"
I couldnt say it better so I copied you Dale. Some people just have a way with words. I don't. I'm finally getting the SI system! I'm not mathmatically inclined at all but after going over it several times I think its starting to sink in. Just wish it didnt take so long to imput all the numbers, don't know how to import data to excel. My emails randontaylor(at)yahoo DOT com if anyone knows how do do this with delta, oanda, or ODL's MT4.
So I've been trading for about 2 months now. I've used the psar and also I've tried candlestick trading. Sticking to these till I get all the calcualtions punched out on the 4 majores for the SI then I'm going to switch to that. How many days previous to the current should I go back? On the one you sent me Dale it's got 80 days, is that about how many I need to have on each of the majores?
I'm currently sitting at a 2 % gain since I started. And I can say I'm only doing that well because of reading about Dales experience with money management. I've had several impulse trades where I've lost anywhere from 5%-10% on my capitol(moved the stops to not get stopped out), and a few gains of 1% that would have been more like 5% if I had let them run. Boy does emotion hammer ya if you let it. I've since really tried to only enter and exit when my system tells me to.
Dale, after reading the psar thread I started a practice account at delta. It'll take a bit to get used to it but I'm trying. The one thing I really wish it had, maybe it does and I just haven't found how to do it, is to show your trades on the charts so you can see where you entered and exited etc. Other than that I think I'll like it better than Oanda.

Randon

P.S. Dale, could you include some charts on the SI system to show when to enter on the daily time frame?

[chirules54]

Hey Boca, I just sent you an e-mail with a spreadsheet.. let me know if you have any questions or comments...

-Nick

[Bocajunior]

Originally Posted by chirules54

Hey Boca, I just sent you an e-mail with a spreadsheet.. let me know if you have any questions or comments...

-Nick

Recieved it Nick. Thanks for that.

[Bocajunior]

Ok, to all you budding Wilder Gurus out there, Here's a question for you on the TBP system.

What would your action be on the third day if the following Momentum Factors (MF) were to happen?

Day 1: 3.50
Day 2: 1.00
Day 3: 2.00

Ok, so on Day 3 we have an MF that is greater than Day 2's, but less than Day 1's. So what are we doing? Are we going Long, or do we take no action?

The reason I ask is this. In the book he says the MF on the third day, for going long, should be greater than either the MF's from the previous 2 days. So to me, that means it only needs to be greater than on of the previous 2 MF's. 2.00 is greater than 1.00,,, so we should be going long.

What do you reckon?

Cheers
Boca

[dpaterso]

Hey folks,

Randon:

I'm happy that you're happy!!!

As far as exporting data from the platforms to Excel (well to a text file that is readable by Excel anyway) I cannot speak for Oanda but both Deltastock's platform and MT4 have the facility (GCI allows you to export DIRECTLY to an Excel Workbook). Just remember (with the exception of GCI) that what you're ACTUALLY doing is exporting the data from the platforms to a TEXT file FIRST and then from WITHIN EXCEL you import the TEXT file.

As far as your comments on money management: I can tell you that it's probably THE MOST important lesson that I have learned (the hard way).

The reason for there being 80 days or so worth of data is purely because when (if) I export my data to use it with Excel I always export from 02/01/2008 to date i.e. from the beginning of the year. The minimum that you require to start with and get a meaningful 'ASI plot' is 7 I would say and then just keep adding from there.

Charts with SI System entry and exit points: I don't see the reason for posting those charts here i.e. if you have the book then those entry and exit points should be obvious???

Boca:

Quite correct: what more can I say!!!

Looking to go long: MF TODAY must be higher than EITHER MF's for the two previous days.

Looking to go short: MF TODAY must be lower than BOTH MF's for the two previous days.

Delta problem: as I (think) I already told you they reckon that the Microsoft .NET Framework and all its updates are not installed correctly. This you need to do yourself using Windows Update (as discussed yesterday) ensuring that ALL the latest versions and updates are installed i.e. not just the Windows 'Express' Updates but all the Windows 'Custom' Updates as well.

[randont]

The book has such clean lines its really easy to see it. Whereas in real trades it will sometimes go semi sideways or the high points or low points aren't very distinct. Do you still trade when it crosses the previous significant HSP/LSP even if the cross is more horizontal than vertical? After stretching them its clearer, I guess.

[dpaterso]

Hi,

Randon:

I can only assume that you're talking about the 'plot' of the ASI on the Excel spreadsheets that's confusing you. Remember this: it's the actual ASI VALUES that count NOT what you can 'see'. In other words: Wilder's work sheets are set up FIRST and THEN plotted so I don't see how, if you're following the text, that there can be any confusion.

Everyone else:

Trading the daily charts affords me more time to 'play around with things' and I must tell you that it's ASTOUNDING the amount of money (pips) to be made with the Volatility System on the weekly and monthly charts. Take a look see!!! Obviously we're talking about trades here lasting for months and possibly even years so ONLY for the serious LONG TERM investor but nevertheless you're talking pips in the thousands (possibly even tens of thousands) over these long periods (from what I've been able to 'visually backtest' so far anyway)!!! Just an observation. I'm still 'tracking' i.e. 'waiting' for some Volatility System entries to come my way but from what I can see this system MAY become MY 'No. 2' rated system!!! Which brings me to a point: NicK: what happened with your Gold entry as a matter of interest? Still short? Should be not so?

[randont]

Good Evening everyone!
Just finished taking the personality test in Mastering The Trade. I got 5 of a. 1 of b. and 14 of c. I'm curious what everyone else got?
Sorry, Dale, I know I should be understanding this. I just got this naggy feeling in the back of my mind that this is gonna be painfully obvious once I do get it. Gonna give it another run through!

[dpaterso]

Good (Wednedsay) Morning!!!

Hey Randon,

Now there's a plan!!! Let's all post those results here for fun!!! (Never thougth of that)!!! I did that test last year when I first got the book but I cannot remember what my score was nor can I find the piece of paper on which I wrote my answers and scores down but I'll do it today again and post the results!!! (For those of you who have the book: HONESTY when answering i.e. it's NOT a competition and there IS NO PRIZE)!!!

I'll email you a 'marked up' chart with entries and exits. I DON'T want to post chart like that here because then I may as well just detail the whole system on the thread and that was not the idea nor will I do it for the reasons already given. Also: it is important that you figure it out for yourself because if you don't you're going to have a hard time using it at a broker for which I am not an IB i.e. for which I have not 'coded' the SI System. And another thing: (this is by no means directed at you Randon) if you're going to use Excel to 'plot' the ASI you do need at least a basic knowledge of Excel i.e. even if I've sent you those Excel spreadsheets you are eventually going to run out of space on them and then you at least need to know how to add cells to the data ranges for the Excel chart (which is what I use to 'plot' the ASI in Excel if I need to). Now listen up: I'm prepared to put all of this stuff into some sort of eBook or something like that. My concern is this: how can I do this and ensure that it's not circulated 'willy nilly' over the Internet??? Impossible I suppose but if anyone can come up with a suggestion then I'm 'all ears' ('Google Groups' a thought maybe???). And please (again) don't think I'm being 'full of it' by not wanting to post all this stuff publicly. As it is I'm starting to get 'bogged down' with Yahoo Messenger 'enquiries' (to the point where most of the time I'm now 'invisible' to everyone)!!! The problem is that (copyright aside) EVEN IF I were to post this stuff publicly I would then have to support it as well and I just don't have the resources to be able to do that (not yet anyway) AND trade for myself or on behalf of my clients. While I could not be happier that this 'business concept' of mine seems to be taking off I MAY have to 'rethink' my 'strategies' here!!!

[dpaterso]

OK, well, as you know, I TRY to post the good AND the bad (although THIS post is more for MY benefit than yours i.e. I need to 'vent'!!!

RIGHT NOW I'M FU*ING PISSED!!!

Not one but TWO SI System TISAR orders were hit (GBP/CAD and AUD/JPY) nicely FU*KING my monthly percentages from over 30% to 9%!!! AND what's more I can FU*KING GUARANTEE that these postitions are just going to turn and go in the 'right/wrong' direction again and it's all thanks to the FU*KING Crude Oil supply and some broken pipeline or the other in the USA!!! FIX THE FU*KING THING!!!

Anyway: comes with the territory, comes with the system, comes with the job!!!

NOW: EVEN IN MY HOUR OF DESPAIR, FRUSTRATION, AND ANGER there is a lesson to impart: You HAVE to stick to the system 'no matter what'. The temptation is ALWAYS there to ignore a SAR or TISAR signal and to not place the required order because you don't THINK that you would be able to 'stomach' the resultant loss (I did not and don't do this ANYMORE BUT I can tell you that the temptation was SO GREAT it was ALMOST overwhelming). The point is this: the system ALWAYS comes out on top in the end and as hard as this may be to 'swallow' it's just plain 'fact' (although admittedly this 'fact' does NOT make you feel ANY better at the time)!!! For all I know Crude Oil MAY INDEED go to $120 a barrel sending Gold with it to over $1 000 an ounce again. The point is you don't know and you have to trust the system to lead you there because if you don't you're going to be in a 'world of sh*t'!!!

(I'll tell you this much: after re-reading this message I'm actually amazed at how far I've come since last year I'll tell you)!!!