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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 03:20 AM
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Good morning everyone.

OK: the 'issue' with the Accumulative Swing Index ('ASI') and consequently the Trailing Index SAR ('TISAR') is this:

The system uses a commodity as an example (which, as you all know, 'the man' was a commodities trader ONLY at the time).

Commodity prices are always quoted in the form '$999.99' but (some, most) forex pairs are quoted in the form '$9.9999' or '0.9999'. This causes a problem BECAUSE if you don't allow for the decimal places your ASI gives you a result that fluctuates between -1 and +1 which is useless. SO the fix is this: you calculate everything to 4 decimals places exactly as it is on the worksheet BUT you DIVIDE your resulting ASI by what I call a 'PIPFACTOR' (which really is a 'tick value'). In other words: Soybeans will have a 'PIPFACTOR' of 1 BUT GBP/CHF will have a 'PIPFACTOR' of 0.0001 and GBP/JPY will have a 'PIPFACTOR' of 0.01. This gives you a 'corrected' ASI (which I call a 'PIPASI') and it is FROM THIS 'PIPASI' that you add or subtract your 60 points (pips) to get the value of your TISAR.

To make things easy I use these pages to get my 'PIPFACTOR' (which is denoted as the 'tick value'. Note that it is the 'tick value' that is to be used NOT the $ amount):

GCI Financial Ltd - Online Forex and CFD Trading

On the CFD accounts it's interesting to note that the 'PIPFACTOR' (or tick value) for ???/ZAR is 0.001 AND NOT 0.0001 as one would expect. Same with Gold i.e. the 'PIPFACTOR' (or tick value) for Gold is 0.1 AND NOT 0.01 as one might expect.

Last edited by dpaterso; 02-19-2008 at 03:24 AM.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 04:33 AM
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Just one thing I think should be mentioned:

Please bear in mind that although I consider myself 'somewhat of an expert' on the systems in the book because of all the time I've spent analysing them it does not necessarily mean that my interpretation of all things is correct so please feel free to post your own 'take' on things (which, after all, is the purpose of this thread).

I also think that this should be mentioned before anyone 'loses their shirt':

Please know that I have only traded the Trend Balance Point System and the Reaction Trend System and, of course, the Swing Index System i.e. I have never traded the Volatility System live. Although the Volatility System is 'one of his best' (according to him) I'm a bit 'wary' of it. Because the SAR 'adjusts' itself according to the volatility and you're effectively trading with no stops I think it takes 'bigger bal*s than mine' and a whole lot more capital and patience than I have to trade that system. If you look at the example in the book you'll notice that the 'historical trade example' covers an entire year and I reckon that's where it will 'shine': 'bravery', 'capital', and 'patience' willing!!!

Again: this is just my opinion based on backtesting and observation. Feel free to comment or disagree.

Edit:

On the other hand I have found that by using a different 'factor' in the Volatility System i.e. outside of 'his' range i.e. instead of '3' but something much smaller you can 'bring' the SAR 'closer'. Whether or not that affects the profitability of the system or the actual operation of the system I do not know but, again, the idea here is to 'experiment' and post your findings and opinions. For all I (we) know: 'tweaking' the Volatitliy System could make it THE overall winner!!! The reason this 'idea' springs to mind is the fact that you can be sure that commodities are NOWHERE NEAR as 'volatile' as the indices or forex pairs!!!

Last edited by dpaterso; 02-19-2008 at 04:38 AM.
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Old 02-19-2008, 08:29 AM
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OK so only got the book today and only had time to take a quick look at the SI. My first impression though is what is the real difference between these 2 graphs. One is painstakingly calculated, the other drawn by sight with very little difference. Thoughts Dale?
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 08:51 AM
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The bottom one looks better!!!
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Old 02-19-2008, 08:53 AM
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No, alright, seriously, there IS no difference.

But now let ME play:

WITHOUT LOOKING AT THE BOOK (if it's not too late):

How would YOU trade the top chart???
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 08:57 AM
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I'm glad it's arrived by the way!!!

Besides: I TOLD you that someone like you would be able to just 'see' what the system is 'telling you' on a chart (EXCEPT that there is just a little bit more to the SI System than the chart)!!!
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 09:00 AM
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Actually (to put it another way):

The bottom one makes money for me; the top one doesn't (hasn't???)!!!
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Old 02-19-2008, 09:03 AM
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I'm now going to 'nap' on my next 'retort' (it's my 'siesta' time i.e. every day about an hour or so before the NYSE opens). Can't wait to get back!!!
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Old 02-19-2008, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dpaterso View Post
The bottom one looks better!!!
LOL, like this reply best!
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 02-19-2008, 10:07 AM
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Yeh, and I hope you wash your hands before you touch the book. That white cover just picks up marks like crazy (I have to polish mine 'on the close' everday)!!!

(I missed my 'nap')!!!

Edit:

I missed my nap because, thanks to the bottom chart, I'm like a child at Chirstmas time lately i.e. every afternoon there is a little 'surprise' in my Soybean 'stocking' just after the CBOT opens!!!

Last edited by dpaterso; 02-19-2008 at 10:11 AM.
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