Trading Systems in 'New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems' by J. Welles Wilder

[chdorry]

Hi all,

Just looking today and seeing what could be the beginning of several USD and GBP short trades. Take a look at the charts, do your homework and take your positions. (Remember - not taking a position *IS* taking a position :-)

Best of luck with however you play it.

[chdorry]

Hopefully some others caught some of the GBP softness last night. The USD just doesn't want to give up yet, but I think that its day for withdrawal is coming soon. - keep your eyes open and checking the charts daily!

I am sitting here today in utter disbelief as I am seeing a few signals I had jotted down and never executed the orders on. Needless to say, I'd be sitting on some pretty nice gains at this point had I not done that (probably would be up 20%+ at this point in the month)

Can't complain too much b/c even with a couple of "screwups" early this week costing me 6%, I'm still up 11% for the month so far, and we're not even half way done!

So stay focused, understand the systems and stick to them, and the profits will follow.

Also, I've just started reading John Carter's Mastering the Trade and I think its well worth the price for the mindset piece in there. There are also many trading systems in the book, but for discussion on those please start another thread - we're trading Wilder here :-)

Here's one of my favorite quotes from the book "The whole game of arbitrage is spotting who the @$$hole is. If you can't spot the @$$hole - well then, you're the @$$hole."

That is so true as I've deviated from the systems, signals, etc (ie been the @$$hole) and I can ensure you that to date those moves have had the same effect as a hole in your pocket, as money will just keep falling out every time you move.

[dpaterso]

Good (Thursday - normally 'payday') morning!!!

Listen up:

Is it just CRAIG AND ME AND RANDON here???

Where IS everyone???

I've not posted too much this week because nothing 'new' to report and I'm making a concerted effort to 'CONCENTRATE'!!! I missed the USD rally last week and the week before because I was too busy 'mucking about' (FOR WANT OF A 'TONED DOWN' phrase) with ADX's and VHF's and ADXR's and . . . and . . . and . . . so I DON'T want to miss the retractment and then the reversal!!!

Heads up:

NOW is a good time to be 'getting in' by looking for EUR/GBP/AUD/NZD longs and USD shorts!!! I missed the USD rally last week and the week before because I was too busy 'mucking about' (FOR WANT OF A 'TONED DOWN' phrase) with ADX's and VHF's and . . . and . . . and . . . so I DON'T want to miss the retractment and then the reversal (although stocks are 'good'. Stocks are ALWAYS 'good'.)!!!

[pip huntter]

Hello every body

Criag and Dale and any one else who is following the thread,

I think we r all following the thread and we r still alive!! but it is just a time to sell any positions for the US Dollar as it pays off for this month!!.

I almost done with the thread reading and i am still into the TBPS also i jumped into the CGI platform and i am giving my self this month and then i will put a real money to start playing with the stock at this moment in time i feel it is much predictable more than the forex market.beside the platform is really easy to follow

any ways have a good trading week guys.

Criag great that u jumped on these trades early but i feel it is time to go out and reverse stay alerted my friend.


Akram

[chdorry]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Good (Thursday - normally 'payday') morning!!!

Listen up:

Is it just CRAIG AND ME AND RANDON here???

Where IS everyone???

I'm still here, not sure about everyone else. So far holding my own this week, not going as well as it should've or I would like, but not showing a loss.

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Heads up:

NOW is a good time to be 'getting in' by looking for EUR/GBP/AUD/NZD longs and USD shorts!!! I missed the USD rally last week and the week before because I was too busy 'mucking about' (FOR WANT OF A 'TONED DOWN' phrase) with ADX's and VHF's and . . . and . . . and . . . so I DON'T want to miss the retractment and then the reversal (although stocks are 'good'. Stocks are ALWAYS 'good'.)!!!

I'd agree but add one bit of caution to this. GBP just recently got pummeled so today's up movement could be the result of the longs losing their shorts on the recent retrace. So this could be what I believe Wall Street classifies as a "dead cat bounce". That said, I'm going to personally keep my eyes on GBP as I'm not sure if it will pullback further or start working back towards where it was earlier this week.

Other than that, I think that AUD long and USD shorts are going to be the big plays. But beware, gold is down again today so that could impact the AUD recovery (if there is one).


By the way, things are returning to *normal* as I see AUD/NZD is up again

[chdorry]

Just an update, looking at a few USD/??? charts, I'm starting to see some AC signals (ie red AC above the zero line). So we can expect the USD reversal at any point now. Keep your eyes opened and let's not miss it this time!!!

Edit: So much for the end to the rally. Hard to predict what is going on now!

[kaalilaatikko]

Hello, I'm still alive ad kicking - but not as vividly as I would like to. I seem to have a destiny to open at least one such trade per week that I cannot get rid of early enogh, and it effectively eats all my gains. In the beginning I messed with DMS, now it has been RTS. I'm a bit above the last month, but it's only a couple of %. Maybe I need to have a break from RTS for a while, or excercise very great care with that. If I just could wipe one trade per week from my track record, I might be showing decent percentages now.

There is one thing that I have been thinking about as well. I have been following the total margin that I have had in use, and I'm not sure if I have so fat never exceeded 10%. If you target at using 15...30% margin, this might cut my profits efficiently as well. But I do not want to just open positions to use the margin, so let it be that way by now.

Here is a small contribution in the form of a picture, just taken for AUD/CHF. My attention focused on the following:

- AC has been green for a few days - should I place a stop above the first green or the latest one after yesterday's red (supposing that today closes in green)?

- I have done some reading about candlesticks. Though that is not the topic of this thread, I'd like to point out the beautiful doji yesterday with the long shadow. This is an early sign of a potential ending of the trend. Today's green body should still be bigger to form a morning star, a good sign for a bullish trend.

- An SIS signal might come in a couple of days. Well, there is still some distance to the SAR.

I'm now following those VS/AC signals for USD and AUD with interest. I would like to complement that with short */ZAR. I have also taken my first steps towards CFD. That market is much calmer in turns, meaning that the profits will also accumulate slower. But so far my track record has been much better there, I haven't had to close a single trade in loss, and even less to talk about big forex-like losses, but there has already been a couple of nice small profitable trades, completely taken based on TA by Wilder. Here I have committed such a sin a couple of times that I have jumped on a clear trend whose signal has been made a bit while ago. I would not do that with forex, but with CFD this has been profitable so far.

J.

[dpaterso]

Wow!!!

Glad to see my earlier post woke some people up!!!

kaalilaatikko:

I was getting worried about you!!!

I think you are now seeing what I see with stocks??? Because the leverage is lower of course your profits (AND LOSSES) are going to be less BUT I'll tell you this: at least I (you) know BEFORE the open what's going to happen to your positions and IF things are not going 'too great' at least the moves are nowhere near as 'sudden' and don't take (more) YEARS off of your life!!!

Having said that though: it's hard to 'pass up' a STRONG signal on a forex pair of course!!!

Not sure what you were saying about margin by the way??? All I CAN tell you is to NEVER exceed 30% NO MATTER WHAT (not unless you actually WANT to take years off your life and wipe out your account in the process)!!! Of the two money management rules THAT is probably THE MOST important one i.e. by all means have multiple positions on an instrument or pair but NEVER exceed the 30% (and to be honest you're good at 15% because that leaves to 'room' to take on an extra trade or two or three upon a signal instead of having to 'wait on the sidelines' and 'miss out'. Of course the 'problem' with these systems is that there are ALWAYS too many signals to 'handle')!!!

Aside from all that: now I believe is a very good time to start trading stocks and getting prepared for the big moves. My choice of only trading the financials is paying off believe it or not. These stocks have lost so much value in the last year that they actually really don't have a long way to go to zero but 'the sky is the limit' for the upside!!!

Forex:

Well:

I'm long AUD/USD as per my VSTOPS/AC system and still looking at EUR/USD and GBP/USD (but again: now that I'm trading mostly stocks again with REAL systems I'm 'choosing' forex trades very carefullly).

(Long Gold and Silver also with VSTOPS/AC).

(Also in nice profit with GBP/BGN which was an RTS/VHF trade).

I don't have much to share with regard to forex though i.e. 99% of my open positions are all stocks. Sorry.

As far as candlestick and chart patterns and formations are concerned:

You use WHATEVER necessary to be successful. If using them improves your results then again: 'go for it'. HOWEVER: please DO remember what DOES work!!! Don't get 'side tracked' is all. I've been very vocal about the fact that I have always had a problem recognising candlestick and chart patterns WHILE they are forming (it's REAL easy to see them 'after the fact' but hey: that's just me)!!! Again: you cannot 'beat' these systems so just don't go looking around for other 'stuff' JUST because you're not doing as well as you'd like to be doing YET. Stick with them and I PROMISE you they WILL pay off.

And Craig:

Yup: things are back to normal (although evidently I know when to 'get in' and 'get out' now)!!!

[kaalilaatikko]

Originally Posted by dpaterso

Not sure what you were saying about margin by the way??? All I CAN tell you is to NEVER exceed 30% NO MATTER WHAT (not unless you actually WANT to take years off your life and wipe out your account in the process)!!! Of the two money management rules THAT is probably THE MOST important one i.e. by all means have multiple positions on an instrument or pair but NEVER exceed the 30% (and to be honest you're good at 15% because that leaves to 'room' to take on an extra trade or two or three upon a signal instead of having to 'wait on the sidelines' and 'miss out'. Of course the 'problem' with these systems is that there are ALWAYS too many signals to 'handle')!!!

My speculation was around about something like the following: if I have say 5 trades open reserving a total of 5% margin, they will not accumulate that much profit when e.g. compared to 15% margin in use. But if I have one trade among those 5 that happens to gather more losses than necessary, and the rest are also on the red side, then the overall sums start to look a bit bad. Now if you have that situation for a longer period, that looks even worse. I was wondering if it would be more probable to avoid this kind of situation, and go on the profitable side, when you have more open trades, supposing that you have placed them with care in the first place.

Now when re-reading this, I don't think there is not that much deep wisdom in those thoughts of mine. But don't worry, I am not intending to exceed 30% margin, never ever. Right now even 20% sounds very high for me.

Here's my latest CFD pick: XTO, long. I studied some fundamentals as well. A long-term position, I hope.

J.

[chdorry]

Originally Posted by kaalilaatikko

Here's my latest CFD pick: XTO, long. I studied some fundamentals as well. A long-term position, I hope.

J.

Boys - Gonna have to ask you to take this CFD stuff elsewhere, as this is a forex discussion site.

(Ok, maybe I'm just a bit disgruntled that you trade CFD's on the US stock market which is illegal for me to do as a US citizen)

(BTW - I have no problem with you discussing CFD's just wanted to vent on the legality of me trading them as a "law abiding" US citizen)