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  #781 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2008, 01:24 AM
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Good (very early - toothache) Friday morning!!!

NICE stock pick kaalilaatikko!!!

I checked it out and I'd agree with you. 'Along the same lines' check out 'FWLT' (Foster Wheeler Limited USA). To be honest: both are RIGHT at the top of my 'price range' i.e. I tend to look for the very cheapest stocks I can find for the simple reason that the more lots you are able to buy the higher your profit i.e. it's 'sort of like increasing your leverage' as it were. One thing you always have to consider with CFD's is the fact that you pay commission AS WELL as the spread so you have to cover that commission. In other words: let's say that as per your money management rules you could really only afford to buy say two lots of IBM for example (because of the highe share price). The price would have to move a WHOLE LOT just to cover the commission and spread before you can even THINK to make a profit. Whereas on a very cheap stock you would be able to buy say one thousand lots and of course the share price would only have to move very slightly to cover the commission and spread (remember the commission is fixed).

One other part of my 'daily stock routine' is to 'mosey on over' to Delta's website and take a look at their 'CFD Statistics'. What I'm looking for is two fold: a) the ABSOLUTE WORST performing stocks i.e. those that have lost most of their value or had the steepest drops in price for the past day/week/month/year (you get the picture) and b) the ABSOLUTE CHEAPEST stocks that fulfill this criteria. FORTUANATELY for ME this is a 100% accurate description of ALL of the financial's (the 'pizazz stocks')!!! Call me a 'bottom feeder' ('bottom picker'??? Get it: 'bottom feeder', 'bottom picker'??? Oh well)!!! One OTHER great thing about the financials is that they are ALWAYS 'in the news'!!!

One other thing I check is to see JUST HOW MUCH FURTHER DOWN a stock has to go 'before zero'. OK: that's a bit 'extreme' but I DO look on the weekly and monthly charts as well just to see where it's come from, where it's been, and what the WORST CASE SCENARIO is IF that stock drops to zero or is suspended from trading (and again: right now the financials 'are it')!!!

Just some input.

Oh WOW:

Almost forgot:

FOREX:

Yes:

Dear Craig (LOL and 'tongue in cheek'):

I'm long AUD/USD and short (AGAIN) AUD/NZD!!! GREAT 'combo'!!!

Now all of you who are panicking about Gold and Silver will you raise your hands??? (By the way: be careful with lost sizes on Silver for the same resaons mentioned above i.e. you don't realise it BUT you can load up 'BOATLOADS' of Silver for the same margin BUT if it goes against you it's not the same as having ten lots of Gold).

Hmm. I can JUST imagine!!!

Now listen up:

You're trading with the VSTOPS (or at least you should be). Assuming that you are not overtrading your account then just sit back and relax (and the same applies to all the AUD/??? pairs, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and NZD/??? pairs NONE of which you should be IN YET but still). 'Patience and restraint' (and 'Wilder') is ALL it takes friends, Roman's, and countrymen!!!

(I'm quite 'chirpy' for this early in the morning!!! Can you tell there was a nice little 'uptick' in the financials yesterday??? Even my two 'honey's' i.e. 'Freddie' and 'Fannie' are up)!!! DAMN!!! I did it AGAIN!!! (Sorry Craig)!!!

Edit (just in case I've not upset anyone ENOUGH yet):

Did I mention my other 'honey's i.e. 'NCC' (National City Corp) and 'WAMU' (Washington Mutual)??? Oh and 'AIG' (American International Group)??? And then of course there are my 'platinum' choices you know: the likes of the JP Morgan's and the Merrill Lynch's and the Lehman's. Oh what a life!!!

Oops!!! !!!

(Even my son (8) knows what 'WAMU' stands for!!! He also knows that when the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are 'green' on Bloomberg then it's 'a good day' but when they're 'red' then he knows TOO)!!!

Last edited by dpaterso; 08-15-2008 at 01:52 AM.
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  #782 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2008, 07:08 AM
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Default Week is winding down

Hi all,

I hope everyone is having a good week! My month has been quite a rollercoaster, and we're only halfway there. I started out being up 18% the first week of August, then had a pullback to 10%, but now I'm ending this week at +15% on the month. Considering today is the 15th day of the month, I'm pretty pleased with that, although most of my "problems" aren't the systems, but me. I can say that part of the pullback was me feeling I had the midas touch after that 18% week, and needless to say that couldn't be further from the truth.

At this point I'm wondering how much more wind are left in the sales of this USD rally. Always tough to determine if you should jump onboard that boat or wait til it turns back towards port.

Best of luck to all.
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  #783 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2008, 01:10 PM
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Good (Friday) evening all!!!

WOW!!!

After ALL MY HARD work on my post Craig: not even a COMMENT!!!

Not a good week huh???

Well: I'm now 'done' for the week. Dunno what the gains are as yet (but then I don't worry about them much on a week to week basis).

What I DO know is that I'm 'shaving off' my 'infamous' AUD/NZD loss in 'BUCKETLOADS' thanks to the Gold price!!!

And of course: stocks, well, need I say more!!!

Is is now Friday evening here and I can honestly say I 'worked my you-know-what off this week' so NOW I have opened my 'bottle' and made fire and will be barbequeing tonight (and will invariably be feeling very sick tomorrow morning)!!! But hey: it's 'part of the job' for me!!! EVEN I need a break (although I'll probably be sitting watching Bloomberg or my documentary on the October '87 crash AND THEN I'll be watching 'my Nightwish')!!!

I'm not sure why everything is so 'quiet' here but I sure (REALLY DO) hope that you are feeling as good about 'this business' as I am of late. If not: you're not asking enough questions OR you're 'panicking' in which case I cannot help you i.e. that has to 'come from self'.

(By the way: I've started 'coding' some of Carter's 'stuff' into Delta's platform out of sheer boredom. When I'm done I'll email the same to my 'clients'). It's strange: I look at THOSE systems NOW and EVEN THEY work. What I'm saying is that it's NOT JUST THE SYSTEM'S I believe (taken me a long time to realise). And now that you're all 'familiar' with Wilder's systems: for those of you who have NOT bought John F. Carter's book 'Mastering The Trade' I suggest that you do. I was having another look at it this week and it addresses some major issues that EVEN WITH the wonderful trading systems given to us by 'the old man': if such issues are not addressed you will STILL have a problem (although you MAY not 'wipe out' which is slightly different but not ideal)!!!

Anyway: have an absolute LOVELY weekend and thanks for all the input and YM 'chats' during the week!!! And be sure to 'be back' on Monday for the next wonderful week!!!
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  #784 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2008, 02:37 PM
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Default Dale

Quote:
Originally Posted by dpaterso View Post
Good (Friday) evening all!!!

WOW!!!

After ALL MY HARD work on my post Craig: not even a COMMENT!!!
As this is my 50th post I was determined NOT to *waste* it on you



Quote:
Originally Posted by dpaterso View Post
Not a good week huh???
I've had better (like last week). Just been crazy week with lots of stuff at work, and a few times I didn't input a trade or ended up thinking I was late and closing out early (at small profit) and then watching it run my way. By a quick count I *cost* myself about 700 pips this week. So to say the least, no I'm not exactly happy as I for some reason didn't stick to the systems when it came to "legit" trades, and then would do some stupid stuff on things that were *almost* legit trades which cost me.

Anyway, glad to see AUDNZD finally moving your way. Honestly, not sure what is up with NZD lately but it seems like you can take any ???/NZD pair, let it run up early and then short it in the afternoon as it comes back with strength.

Also worth noting, EURNZD is looking like a SIS short to me (of course gotta wait for ASI). Not sure what happened in NZD this week to make this change all of a sudden or maybe its "no news is good news" for NZD whereas other currencies had some news.

Of course we've seen pullbacks in EURNZD before, but nothing to this magnitude until this last one. So this *could* be the one that breaks the trend and starts the retracement.

Would be interested in others sentiments on the ???/NZD and NZD/??? pairs as all of them are starting to form some sort of signal from a quick glance.

Last edited by chdorry; 08-16-2008 at 12:17 AM.
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  #785 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2008, 03:42 AM
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Good (Saturday) morning all (and I promised myself I'd say nothing about the hang over this morning so I won't)!!!

Craig: I KNOW you had a good week!!! I was just being facetious (I had to spell check that word)!!!

As far as the NZD is concerned:

All I know is that New Zealand did in fact release some 'better than expected' results during the week although I'd not have imagined that they could have / would have affected the value of the NZD by THAT much.

Personally: I believe that the current movements in the price of the NZD has a lot do with the drop in Gold and Oil and AUD. I get a daily commentary from 'Oz Forex' (who OBVIOUSLY know what's going on with both the AUD and the NZD) and what I've noticed is that when there is no 'real big' data releases they say that they expect the NZD to follow the movement of the AUD. This is obviously the reason that AUD/NZD never moves like any of the other AUD or NZD pairs i.e. it's always the exception (well up until this week anyway).

My UNEDUCATED opinion: I'd not get TOO carried away with ANY NZD pairs because frankly I don't really understand what / why the NZD moves like it does. As an example: The Gold price of late has been going down 'in leaps and bounds' BUT the NZD is strengthening against the CHF (I still have a long on this pair from a while back) and the AUD (or is the AUD just weakening against the NZD)??? See what I'm saying here??? I cannot 'fathom' what makes the NZD 'move' (and believe me I've looked) so: if there are any of those 'silent followers' of the thread that are familiar with NZD fundamentals then PLEASE DO feel free to 'chip in here' (the likes of 'tonymand' for example)???

By the WAY: sorry AT THE MOMENT for those of you who are 'down' on Gold and Silver and AUD BUT NOTE that I said 'AT THE MOMENT' i.e. if you're using the VSTOPS like I am I firmly believe that you're 'in' very nice and early for 'the turns' and right now you're still FAR away for the SAR's. AND: if you EVER doubted the 'validity' of the VS/VSTOPS then take a look at Silver on Friday. There isn't a trading system IN THE WORLD that would NOT have had you stopped out on Friday at a HUGE loss EXCEPT for the VS/VSTOPS!!!
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  #786 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2008, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by kaalilaatikko View Post
Boca, thanks for your interesting post!
I learned from Dale to place the order outside the LCR, not inside. Your trade should yield more trades, but are you doing this on purpose differently than Dale? Does your way seem to produce better results?
Good day all, and thanks to everyone who commented on my RTS post. Sorry I haven't posted this week as I have been a little bit busy. It seems my girlfriend doesn't share my passion for dedicating so many hours to trading.

It would seem that judging on my results using this method on the RTS it is not working out for me at the moment. I am not taking huge losses (with the exception of a AUDJPY trade) but it seems that I am just chipping away small profits, break even or small losses. Which leads me to conclude the way I am using it is not worth the effort for me as I apper to be just treading water. I will have to sit down and have a look at this as and prehaps look to trade the level outside the LRC and with a SL in place.

Is anybody yielding good profits using this system?

Dale,
I mentioned to you before that I was looking into using VSTOPS so hope I can discuss with you on YM sometime in the coming weeks. I have been using the VS on CFDs but just using standard VS and not VSTOPS.

I am glad that you are taking a look at Carters systems again and I hope they will be well recieved here. I look forward to more discussion on some of these. I thoroughly recommend this book to anybody who doesn't yet have it. Talking about good books, I'm making my way through Bill Williams book "Applying Expert Techniques to Maximise Your Profits". Very interseting stuff I must say. Another great read.

I may have been quite here as the Olympics have been on and now we have the English football season starting today. Not easy to tear myself away from the tv.

All the best all
Boca
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  #787 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2008, 10:42 AM
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Originally Posted by chdorry View Post
All,

Been doing some investigation into the RTS system and reread the book on it. Couple of items stood out to me are as follows:
1) Wilder used the RTS system and would exit the position if B1/S1 wasn't hit
2) He was VERY clear that the B1/S1/HBOP/LBOP were good for the ONE day only

There also was a section where Wilder talked about *if* the market open, close, high and low were the same for many days straight, how the RTS system could still be profitable.

Taking that last point, and looking at some charts (see attached cadjpy.bmp and usdcad.bmp) I started noticing that our typical anti-trending (ADX<20) pairs would be rangebound by a somewhat defined high and low. Based on that I added the Keltner channels to my charts for RTS.

Now, based on that I'm changing my RTS approach slightly. Looking at the usdcad file, one can see there was a recent strong runup (which has been seen before). I can say that on at least two of those "green days" the S2 point was hit (indicating taking a short position). Now if you had gotten in at one of those points (I did) you'd have seen a drawdown up until now, and I anticipate a reversal soon and move past BE to a profit. If you look at the chart overall though, there seems to be resistance/top at the purple line (approximately 1.0275 on the chart) and support which isn't as neatly defined, but pretty consistently touching 1.0 or below.

My current thinking is that *NOW* is the time to be getting into USDCAD at an S2 point or thereabouts while its high in the channel and nearing its resistance. From there I should be able to ride this RTS all the way down instead of trying to trade a retracement within the channel retracement. Then when you start approaching the bottom (if short) I'd use a SL that is a few ticks higher than yesterday's high (or some value similar). Once the stop is hit, you can look at placing a stop buy up a little bit and plan to "ride" the return to the top of the channel.

At least that is how I'm going to try playing the RTS for the near future. While you'll never get in at the exact top/bottom, at least with this type of approach I think we'll be "swimming with the current" instead of fighting it.

In a nutshell, I'm looking at the bigger picture and trying to identify "B1" and "S1" based on the channel, and this is ONLY applicable to non-trending pairs. One other benefit is that *if* I'm going with the current (ie up from bottom of channel to top) if a trend breaks out long, I'm already in.

Also, quick look at CADJPY shows similar phenomenon with the blue (HBOP) and red (LBOP) lines as the "banks" of the channel.

Based on this, I'm gonna try to "channel surf" the RTS system over the next few weeks.

To me, this *could* be part of the reason why I (we) have been seeing RTS trades go red for a few days prior to turning green.


Would be interested in anyones comments, input, suggestions as I think this is a topic worth discussing in an effort to refine the RTS system to all of our benefits.
I don't remember anybody commenting this post, but it has bothered me ever since. Now I run across the chart in the first picture and noticed your recent post, Boca, as well. To avoid annoying anybody, I won't mention that the picture is taken from a CFD instrument. There is quite similar oscillation like in Craig's USD/CAD example. ADX and VHF confirm a ranging pair.

I would like to agree with Craig, but with some SL enhancements that Boca brought up a while ago. Look at the second picture to see what happened for USD/CAD. The arrow shows the last visible candle in Craig's post. The price skyroceted right after that point. What I'm thinking is to see the price to indeed retrace and place the order only then. And Boca's SL should be in place right in the beginning. In this case the trade would either not have been taken at all, or then exited with a loss that would have been much smaller than what has been quite typical at least for me with RTS.

So then back to the first picture. Here the retracement has already started and I might consider myself being a couple of days late already. But judging by the size of the daily candles, it might be possible that the next candle could touch S1 at around 44 and then continue the retracement. So S1 might be the entry for a limit sell. The price might continue to LBOP, so you could then target at exiting there, or earlier at B1. But here I wouldn't think about buying at B1 or B2, though the latter one is more clearly below LRC and thus should be favourable when following the rules we have learned so far.

There is another thought that occurred me. In this picture LRC is climbing up. Craig's thoughts and mine would suggest short trading. I haven't checked this any further, but: how about opening only short RTS positions when LCR is climbing (and all other conditions favour the trade), and the opposite for long trades?

I personally see some sense in the above, but my track record with RTS (or anything) is so far too lousy to have too much belief in what I am saying. I don't know why it is for me that analysing seems to be so easy, but trading is a completely different thing. I don't see enough good trades and once I enter a bad trade I hold it much too long. I haven't lost my hope, but I definitely need to do something to my trading. I may need to clearly reduce the number of forex pairs I try to follow (which might be not that difficult if CFD continues to work for me as it seems now). Right now the effort I am putting in trading is in no proportion to the reward. 2% profit so far this month for a countless number of hours of work ... I'm not at BE yet ... sigh ...

J.
Attached Images
File Type: bmp RTS_bounces.bmp (54.5 KB, 3 views)
File Type: bmp RTS_USDCAD.bmp (83.4 KB, 7 views)
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  #788 (permalink)  
Old 08-16-2008, 02:57 PM
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Good (Saturday) evening all.

I hate to say this but I don't understand why the RTS is not working out for everyone (well my 'version' of it anyway). I can honestly say that TO DATE I've not lost on a single trade (and as this is NOT one of my 'favourite' system's I've no need to be 'bullsh*tting' you here either)!!!

The ONLY TIME I've ALMOST 'come a cropper' with the RTS oddly enough WOULD HAVE BEEN somewhere around the end of July JUST when this HUGE drop in GBP/USD started (I say 'would have been' because I never took the trade for SOME INEXPLICABLE REASON so I was just lucky I'll admit)!!! THAT 'potential disaster' HAS proved one thing though: there MUST be a 'that is it point' for my 'version'. Now whether that point is 'Enronning' the position or taking a loss: that's a personal choice. Really though: to date the RTS has only made me profits and NICE profits at that!!!

Again:

I ONLY EVER buy or sell at the first RTS level OUTSIDE of the LRC's and I NEVER use B1 or S1 for entry EVEN IF they're the first RTS level outside the LRC's. B1 or S1 I ONLY use for TP levels. I have had occasion to be 'wrong' and the price has gone against me and reached another (the next) RTS level in which case I add to the position by another SINGLE position (note that this is NOT 'doubling' the position and I've only ever had to do this a maximum of four consecutive times before the trade has turned and gone on to hit my TP at B1 or S1). AND ALSO: I've only ever had to add to postions more than once when I've ignored the VHF or ADX values i.e. I've tried to 'second guess' them both THINKING that the pair is headed for a trading range. Unfortuanately EVEN the VHF or ADX used CORRECTLY would NOT have 'saved you' with GBP/USD!!! Normally I look for support or resistance below or above before considering the trade but again: EVEN THIS would not have 'saved your bacon' with GBP/USD so yes I WAS INDEED just very lucky. On the other hand: it could ALSO just have been that as you all know I tend to 'favor' going ONLY long and never short on anything so this may ALSO have contributed to the fact that I did not take that trade (probably did come to think about it now). And I KNOW that some of you think this is 'ridiculous' to ONLY take long trades but I assure you that the ONLY positions that I have 'battled with' and held onto losses for longer than 'needs be' have been short trades!!! I honestly and truly believe there is merit in this 'strategy' or should I call it a 'fetish for long postiions'!!! Does this keep me out of trades??? I don't think so because remember: (especially with forex) for every one pair that's moving down there is another pair that's moving up!!!

In the latest version of the indicators you'll note that I've enabled the user to 'move' either the HBOP/LBOP or the B1/S1 RTS levels (or both) by either a multiple of the spread or by a fixed point / pip amount. By entering a negative multiplier for the spread or a negative fixed point / pip amount you can move the levels closer together this done to avoid those 'pesky' situations where the price JUST touches either your entry or TP level, does not execute the order (JUST misses by the spread normally), and then turns against you either resulting in a missed trade or a losing position which would have closed at profit.

Now: the 'pure' RTS would have you exit positions on the relevant 'BOS' days whether in profit OR loss so in THAT way Wilder obviously DOES limit losses. The problem AGAIN though is the 'sequencing' of the days. Having said THAT though I also DO TRY to use my own 'sort of sequence' i.e. I'll only place a buy order if I've already got one 'down' bar showing and I'll only place a sell order if I've already got two 'up' bars showing (in a 'crass attempt' to 'simulate' the 'three days up and two days down' theory WHICH I might add I REALLY DO BELIEVE exists i.e. I see it every single week with the indices. OK: sometimes it's not 'three and two' but maybe 'two and two' or 'four and one' but it's never 'JUST DOWN' or 'JUST UP' for days on end and I WOULD go so far as to say that the 'average' really is 'three days up and two days down' WHEN TRADING IN A RANGE that is).

Anyway: I'd agree that some sort of stop loss is needed if you're not wanting to 'Enron' positions and are not prepared to hold losses UNTIL they turn to profit as I do. Again: my only suggestion would be either to use the NEXT RTS level from your entry point or possibly even the mid point between your entry point and the next RTS level for your stop loss. The mid point 'strategy' is probably the 'better of the two' for the simple reason that you can be pretty sure that if the mid point is reached the price is going on to the next RTS level so you'll be able to get in at a better price which will compensate for your loss and spread if you get to TP.

Again I say this though: while the RTS DOES WORK (for me anyway) it's really 'high maintenance' and 'high stress' especially if the trade goes against you for a time. I still don't believe you can beat the VS/VSTOPS and I must say that the SIS is now 'behaving itself' VERY WELL since we removed the 'limit' from the 'equation'. And AGAIN I SAY THIS: if you've 'NOT GOT YOUR MIND RIGHT' it does not matter WHICH of these systems you use!!! At best you'll just 'tread water' as kaalilaatikko says; at worst you're going to 'wipe out'.

Again: some common sense is also needed. I mean: a CLASSIC example of some 'common sense' is USD/ZAR this week. You have to develop some sort of 'feel' for what everyone else is thinking and going to possibly do. EVERYONE (and there mother) knows that the USD/ZAR trades between 7 and 8 so what happens: LOADS of limit sell orders at 8!!! What happened??? Chances are that if those traders have not taken profits they're going to end up wiping out those profits or getting into a loss situation because the move in USD/ZAR from 8 and back down was probably nothing more than a pile of limit sell orders that got executed on Friday. 'Common sense' or 'feel'??? Call it what you like but DO try to 'master' it.

Also: you 'HAVE TO HAVE TO' spend time 'vacuuming up' or 'absorbing' as much information about what you're trading as you can!!! It surprises me when someone says that they have 'no idea what happend to ???/??? this week'??? I see this comment more than once per week on this site (not ONLY on this thread)!!! Unfortuanately with forex your 'background information resources' are limited at best but for 'crying out loud': at very LEAST take a look at the forex economic calendars on daily basis!!! They're EVERYWHERE (here, Delta, Forex Factory which is the one I use out of habit). GO to bloomberg.com and see what's 'going on' in the world every day. If NOTHING ELSE: at least if you're LOSING you know WHY!!! Subscribe to newsletters from organisations that deal with your choice of instruments or pairs. This is a MUST not a choice!!! For instance: I've just signed up now for a trial of the 'pit noise' audio feed as detailed in John Carters book. If it works: I'll pay for it I believe. This is the actual 'pit noise' coming off of the floor at the CBOE. According to Carter: this should give you a 'head up' on a move on the S&P BEFORE it even 'hits the chart'. As I said: if it works for me then I'm prepared to pay for it. Get the picture???

Lastly: the idea of this thread is NOT to entertain or to 'just keep people in the game' for weeks on end without making any real money. The idea here is to MAKE money and lots of it too!!! If you need help: I AM HERE!!! Whether you like to admit it or not: I've spent a lot more time at this than most on this thread and I do believe I've learned a lot. I'm NOT 'blowing my own trumpet here' by saying that either. My intention has only ever been to help everyone achieve the successes that I've been achieving since I started trading Wilder's systems. To be honest though: it is becoming ever more apparent to me that maybe it's NOT 'just the systems' that turned my trading around. I'm starting to believe that it was a 'confluence' of 'time spent' and the studying and the coding of the systems that resulted in the 'turn'. Having said that though: do not get discouraged. If this really is something that you want to do then stick with it and you will succeed. And if you need help: I'll do my very best for you IF you allow me to. I mean: my little business is expanding in 'leaps and bounds' of late and I have some pretty major 'profit guarantees' to 'make good on'. I promise you this: I'd not be making 'profit guarantees' to ANYONE if I did not really and truly believe in myself and these systems and could not show a 'track record' for them.

One VERY last thing: you need to know that this is NOT a 'half way' 'profession'. This is an 'all in or nothing' job!!! You do need to think about this statement!!!

Last edited by dpaterso; 08-16-2008 at 03:08 PM.
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Old 08-16-2008, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by kaalilaatikko View Post
I would like to agree with Craig, but with some SL enhancements that Boca brought up a while ago. Look at the second picture to see what happened for USD/CAD. The arrow shows the last visible candle in Craig's post. The price skyroceted right after that point. What I'm thinking is to see the price to indeed retrace and place the order only then. And Boca's SL should be in place right in the beginning. In this case the trade would either not have been taken at all, or then exited with a loss that would have been much smaller than what has been quite typical at least for me with RTS.
J - While I'm by no means 100% confident in the system as I mentioned, at least the chart you showed with the one small red candle is something I'd have set out. By that I mean I'd want to see a move downward in the channel (ie below the low of the previous bar at a minimum). While that's going to eat your profits a bit (ie you'll lose out on those pips), I think it greatly increases your success rate.
Also, for any type of channel trading (and even RTS) you need to keep your eye on the spread for the pair, as if you're seeing a channel with a high-low of 200 pips, and your spread is 150 pips, I'd sit that one out. Now if the channel was 200 pips wide and the spread was 25 or less, I'd consider taking that trade. You can also use stops by either using some RTS values (as Dale mentioned) or adding another indicator in such as Keltner channels (or pick something else that tickles your fancy.)

Of course I can say that sometimes you mess with the bulls you get the horns. For example, if anyone did an RTS trade long on AUDJPY on or about July 30th (would have to check the date) you'd have really been a happy camper if you had set a stop loss on that one :-)
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Old 08-17-2008, 03:31 AM
kaalilaatikko's Avatar
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Thanks, guys, for comments. I've had some analysis about where I am right now and where I should be heading. My track record right now is about 4 weeks live trading, of which 1 week in July. I don't count demo trading as experience, it's kind of maintaining an aquarium with toy fish. Here are some ifs about my performance (in general, speaking in conditional is not productive, but please allow me this time). In July I can point out some clear mistakes with DMS I'd like to forget. In August I've got my losses from RTS. So, if I ignore July and take all RTS trades away from my trading recors in August, added with courage to let the */ZAR trades to run log enough, I think I would be showing some 10%-15% profit right now. To get that, I've been using margins < 1%, for VS about 0.3%. Now it seems that I can justify myself using 1.8% for CFD, and I am expecting that to have an impact on the results as well. So though I'm not there yet, I believe I'm on the right way, I just still need time to get all pieces in the correct positions.

Dale:
Quote:
One VERY last thing: you need to know that this is NOT a 'half way' 'profession'. This is an 'all in or nothing' job!!! You do need to think about this statement!!!
I'm aware of this and have taken this seriously, I hope. In practice I have been doing 2 jobs for a month now. The first one gives me a regular salary, the second one eats the rest of my free time. I look at forex in the morning, and again spend the whole evening with forex + stocks. But I cannot maintain my trades during the day. I'm suspecting that that is one problem with RTS for me.

I have decided to make this my main job only when I am able to show consistent profits for a bit longer period. On my road to that, I want to find those methods that suit my trading personality, but if a method doesn't fit me, it's better not to force it. Right now I am going to wirk with SIS, VSSTOPS/AC and VS/VSSTOPS only. The time will show if I return to RTS one sunny day.

J.
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