GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

[Andrewunknown]

Not to throw cold water on a good buy-in level, but:

Activity overnight has negated those components that were bullish on the 3H IKH chart.

1) The Tenkan/Kijun top-down cross (bearish) that occurred above the cloud on Friday is now confirmed with price falling below the kumo's support.

2) Price crossed below Kijun-Sen in early afternoon NY trading last Thursday, rebounding to close just above that line yesterday night, but then unable to hold that breach, with price now ~250 pips below the line. With the exception of the pullbacks on June 2-5, June 17-18 and June 23, price has been firmly supported by Kijun-Sen since May 22.

3) Last night's thin kumo indicated support was not very substantial; price action after midnight confirmed that, sending price ~230 pips below Senkou Span B (the bottom line of an ascending cloud), currently sitting @ 211.87.

4) Chikou Span: 26 periods falls on early last Wednesday, Jun 25, where price was closing above 212.70-212.80 resistance, versus price hovering approximately 300 pips below that level now.

The daily IKH chart remains bullish with so many uptrending periods in play more than absorbing the congestion of the last 10 or so days.


As rrram mentioned previously, price has good support around 209.50, and especially the old battleground from several weeks ago around 208.90-209. Support following that level occurs @ 207.80, 206.80, 206.40, 205.50, 205.

There may be a reversal in the offing, though: it looks like the 1H will post a dragonfly doji here a couple minutes before 0700 ET.


Have a good day - I'm off to talk about equities.

[rrram2]

QUADROUPLE BOTTOM on the 6MIN @ 209.50

[Andrewunknown]

Originally Posted by rrram2

is he the one thas does the cloud analysis?

No, he primarily uses Elliott Wave, but is also heavy on fib retracement and chart patterns. Interesting approach mapping out several paths he believes are contenders for what will occur, then letting price itself cancel those paths that are invalidated, while he creates new potential paths. Even though he has several scenarios on his chart at any one time, he adds comments that usually explain which path he thinks is most probable. Good stuff, though some people find his charts a bit daunting at first.

[rrram2]

Not how I should, I never really took the time to learn them completely.
I sort of do an elliott wave in my mind when I am looking at charts.
And believe that legs up and down often equal out or cancel out and that the distance of up moves and down moves must equal. So I have high belief in elliott waves even though I dont use them. The theory seems very valid and can often predict reversal points.

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

No, he primarily uses Elliott Wave, but is also heavy on fib retracement and chart patterns. Interesting approach mapping out several paths he believes are contenders for what will occur, then letting price itself cancel those paths that are invalidated, while he creates new potential paths. Even though he has several scenarios on his chart at any one time, he adds comments that usually explain which path he thinks is most probable. Good stuff, though some people find his charts a bit daunting at first.

[4xStar]

Originally Posted by rrram2

Not how I should, I never really took the time to learn them completely.
I sort of do an elliott wave in my mind when I am looking at charts.
And believe that legs up and down often equal out or cancel out and that the distance of up moves and down moves must equal. So I have high belief in elliott waves even though I dont use them. The theory seems very valid and can often predict reversal points.

Excellent explanation of Jeb's charts Andrew, I had not thought of that "he draws multiple scenarios and lets price cancel the ones that are invalid..." (paraphrasing)

I've never been able to master Elliott either, but now with Jeb around I don't have to .. I just check his charts daily. This past 2 weeks has been a test, I was not sure he was going to be right as he repeatedly called for a bearish retraction to at least 209.50. But in the end he nailed it to the pip and made some great calls inbetween. The charts look daunting at first but are actually easy enough to read & Jeb gives his preferred scenario each day (although I find that prediction less valid than the charts themselves). If you combine Jeb's analysis with the knowledge (rrram) that Guppy will go up whenever she possibly can, and add in Andrew's knowledge of IKH, we are starting to develop something predictive here....

[4xStar]

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

Not to throw cold water on a good buy-in level, but:

Activity overnight has negated those components that were bullish on the 3H IKH chart.


As rrram mentioned previously, price has good support around 209.50, and especially the old battleground from several weeks ago around 208.90-209. Support following that level occurs @ 207.80, 206.80, 206.40, 205.50, 205.

The trouble is just that on Jeb's chart, this may not be the final retracement, I thought it was a wave completion, but according to the latest set of lines he has drawn, there may be more to go.
I am well into profit now at 210.70, so will keep a tight eye on it & be prepared to bail & collect if it looks like another leg down. It may not be over yet

I'm off to talk about equities.

Borrr--ring! I don't think I would ever trade an equity again .. yuck!


I love our guppy

[4xStar]

The latest from Jeb this morning around 8am was expecting her to drop further to his 208.59 target. I think he will have to draw some new lines since she is showing so much strength after tagging 209.50, already at 211.08. My calculations say if she can break 211.55 with conviction, this is already a new leg up to 213 and beyond.

Jeb's problem is he gets the technical part, but does not understand her personality. She just wants to go UP

211.28 ... heerrreee we go!

[4xStar]

That's OK, I am used to talking to myself

She is stalling now at the 61.8 retracement from the last SH/SL, I am watching the 15' chart mostly.

She needs to clear 211.55 with conviction or there could be failure here & Jeb's next wave target of 208.59 could come into play. I am ready to bail if she starts retracing as I would rather get some more even lower. Nice profit so far

[rrram2]

We had a nice mvoe up from there. MY Gann FAn is right on this one and I am targeting 212.30 into 2PM

Originally Posted by rrram2

QUADROUPLE BOTTOM on the 6MIN @ 209.50

[mytwopips]

Boo hoo

I slept through the London. I don't think I need to explain any further.