GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

[Andrewunknown]

As it turned out, I went flat at just the right time (a few pips shy of 212 on G/J) before I headed off this morning (another triple-digit RED letter day on the Dow today). I left my USD/JPY and EUR/CHF on with some tight stops expecting more upside, but they stopped out 45 minutes after I left the house - didn't give them too much leash.

Price is forming a symmetrical triangle (white diagonal lines) from which I highly doubt a breakout will occur in the pre-NFP doldrums (remember, NFP is tomorrow @ 0830 ET because Friday is a US market holiday). Support continues between 210.40-70 and especially today around 211. The 144 EMA sits modestly below @ 210.91.

Holiday weekend here or not, we may see significant back-to-back event volatility with the ECB rate decision @ 0745 ET (only indirectly related) and then the NFP itself, slated to come in modestly lower (-55k v. -44k) than last month.

[cuero]

Hi all,

What's the tightest bid/ask spread you guys see on GBP/JPY. My local bookie in Japan is a fixed 7pip spread, but I looked at a Deutsche Bank demo account (dbfx.com) a couple of weeks ago and it bounced around with the market. Over a couple of hours 3 pips wide was quoted a number of times and that was the tightest I saw, but I also saw 5 pips wide for a while before they reverted back to 7pips.

BTW where is the best place on this site to post off topic items?

Best regards.

[4xStar]

Originally Posted by rrram2

You know why I have to do this with NJ? I cannot just bail out. I can easily stay in forever if need be and collect interest. I think what you are missing is that my broker sends me a check a week. Even if it is only $300. I really enjoy collecting interest as I have to do nothing to get it, it just accumulates over time.
It will prove that despite any drawndown if managed by someone who smartly manages their margin, will never yeild a loss, and in the long run they will multiply their initial investment by 100% the first year VERY safely while keeping their margin useage low. It is just tooo slow for me.

OK, fine, keep doing it .. but in a separate account. Since you started this affair with NJ your focus & commentary on G-Y is less than it used to be. Yes you still comment, but the old energy is not there.
Maybe keep NJ in a separate account, I just don't want to hear any more how you can't play the Guppy because your funds are all tied up!
You could start a separate thread for NJ. I am curious to see how it progresses, but that is a year down the road .. for now I really want to return focus to the G-Y.

[pipsquito]

So, here's a stupid question.

If the NFP is better than expected...better for the USD...will the GJ go up? And if it is worse than expected...bad for the USD...will the GJ go down?

I am in a really tight spot here with my loss leader at 213.50 or so, and a string of buys on down to 212.30. If it drops much further my draw down will kill me. So I will have to short to save my shorts, so to speak.

BUT...if the NFP causes a rise, I will be ok of course.

But which way will it go if the news is good or bad?

Thanks!

[trav72]

So it looks like the guppy is closing down on that range heading to the pinnacle of that V. but where is she going to break to from there...any guesses???????>>>>..ideas...up/down..sideways

[4xStar]

Originally Posted by trav72

So it looks like the guppy is closing down on that range heading to the pinnacle of that V. but where is she going to break to from there...any guesses???????>>>>..ideas...up/down..sideways

Yes .. one of those 3, for sure

Just checked Jeb's charts and he is becoming less bearish. She needed to test 210.39 and so far she won't drop below 210.70, which shows strength. So a trip back to 212 looks likely .. however .. due to 8:30 news and the fact that she is basing so long, I am flat & will stay that way until a direction is confirmed .. might leave pips on the table, but there will still be plenty left and at this point I don't want to just guess.

I did manage to scalp some earlier today on the 15' chart, just practising being a troll on top of the bridge

Pipsquito .. if the USD/JPY is pulled up sharply on news, that should send G-Y up as well unless there is some strong event pulling at the pound at the same time (unlikely). Rrram2 keeps saying what is good for $ is good for guppy.

However .. if anyone is still long, I would use any upward bounce toward 212 to get out, because if she reverses and falls (as Jeb calls for in his bigger picture), the fall this time could be substantial.
Play safe, live to play again

[4xStar]

Here is part of post for today from my news source (free daily iinfo that I find very informative). I do not trade the news, except rarely, but it is useful to have an idea in advance what 'might' happen, and these guys are good). Link is forexpeacearmy dot com, click on forum, then Current Trading Signals, there will be a prompt to join for free.

Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll which is expected to come out at -60K. The expectation range is between -130K and -20K so no one is expecting this number to be positive. If it comes out at -15K or higher, it would be the highest reading since February and I think it will be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -110 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 50 pips move. We will also have Unemployment Rate coming out and if it is going to deviate by 0.2, this may either help a lot or screw your trade up, depending if it is supporting or conflicting with the NFP number. Higher unemployment rate is bad for the dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the dollar. We will also have Initial Jobless Claims, and deviation of 25K might be a problem or a good help, depending on which way it deviated. Higher number on Initial Jobless Claims is bad for the dollar, and lower number is good for the dollar.

5. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:35 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. Please watch the video for details about this report.

6. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out which is expected to come out at 51.0. If NFP deviated a lot, ISM Non-Manufacturing may not move the market a lot but if NFP came out as expected, people will be focused on the ISM. 1.0 deviation should move USD/JPY very well but we also had complete reversal. If it comes out at between 51.1 and 51.9, I would sell as soon as we have a spike up on USD/JPY 20 pips away from the prerelease. If it comes out at between 50.0 to 50.9, I would buy USD/JPY as soon as the price went down by 20 to 40 pips. However, if it comes out at 52.0 or higher, I would buy on the spike and expect USD/JPY to move 40 pips up. If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, I would sell on the spike and expect 40 pips move as well. Please watch the video for detailed explanation.

[4xStar]

Uh-oh, looks like 4:30 am news not good for cable, however I did buy the dip in G-Y as this is probably over-reaction, looking for 20-30 pips, then out.

2. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 49.5. If it comes out at 50.2 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.8 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action as well.

Actual number was 47.1.

[rrram2]

I was going to say 210.60 maybe as the dip down/bottom.
I was going to say the 38.2FIB at 210.40ish but it looks liek 210.60 will probably be the low for the morning.

[trav72]

i had a buy limit in at 210.55....damm just missed her....she is going up up up...for now...