GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

[4xStar]

Pips, did you find M2P's Contra Swing Strategy thread? It is in this forum, under The Holy Grails, under Free Forex Trading systems .. should be near this one.

Happily I bought some guppy at 212.27, thinking to hold over the weekend, but set a profit exit at 212.67 just in case .. and happily it was hit
Next week looking good ....

[4xStar]

And as a final thought, before the weekend....

Go, Guppy, Go!!!!!

[mytwopips]

SHORT GUPPY SHORT!!!

Did I say that???

[Andrewunknown]

Next week will be very interesting, that's for sure! The Guppy is knocking on the door of the highs made in January, retracing nearly 2200 pips of downside that bottomed out on March 17. Is this a corrective leg that is nearly exhausted, or only the beginning of a more extensive upward trend?

Off to see The Dark Knight this evening - everyone have a great weekend!

[mytwopips]

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

Off to see The Dark Knight this evening - everyone have a great weekend!

I want to go! I want to go! I want to go too!

[akeakamai]

Guppy's gonna run into the 50 and 200 week EMA and the weekly downtrend's resistance trendline all at once this upcoming week. Please fasten your seatbelts, and keep your arms inside the ride!

I think this next week will make or break Guppy, too bad I'm going on vacation this week d'oh! So I'll be checking in on the aftermath, I hope at least one of you makes a small fortune in coming days....

[mytwopips]

Originally Posted by akeakamai

Guppy's gonna run into the 50 and 200 week EMA and the weekly downtrend's resistance trendline all at once this upcoming week. Please fasten your seatbelts, and keep your arms inside the ride!

I think this next week will make or break Guppy, too bad I'm going on vacation this week d'oh! So I'll be checking in on the aftermath, I hope at least one of you makes a small fortune in coming days....

Good call. I see what you are saying. Thanks.

[trav72]

Originally Posted by HAUGHT007

NOW THE DARK SIDE.....
With 100:1, let's say you have the same 10 lots.....
$1000 margin of lots divided by $10,000 account balance = 10% of your account is held on margin.

At 400:1, same 10 lots......
$250 margin of lots divided by $10,000 account balance = 2.5% of your account held in margin.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE DARK SIDE......
Let's say that you're at 10% margin on a 100:1 leverage account... you can withstand a $9000 drop in unrealized profit aka 900 pips...
(10 lots * $100/lot = $1000 = 10% margin aka 10% of account balance)
(10 lots * $100/lot * 900 pips = $9000 draw down before lots start closing)

Let's say you're at 10% margin on a 400:1 leverage account.... you can withstand a $9750 drop in unrealized profits BUT.... at 10% on a 400:1 leverage account you would have 40 lots instead of 10 like on the 100:1 so you can only withstand a 243 pip drop.
(40 lots * $25/lot = $1000 = 10% margin aka 10% of account balance )
(40 lots * $25/lot * 243 pips = $9000 draw down before lots start closing)


JIST OF IT ALL....
High leverage sounds great when talking about your margin requirements but when it comes to actual drawdown, you can drawdown a whole lot farther at 10% on 100:1 than you can on 10% at 400:1.

Hope this makes sense.

Here you are basically saying your draw is dependent more so on how many lots opened not leverage.

The leverage is just the deposit needed for the open position.
there is no darkside
At the 100:1 if you only have 10 positions(mini lots = pip value $1) open, you can afford 9000 pip fall (900pips for each of the 10 position).
At 400:1 you have 40 positions open, therefore you can afford same 9000 pip fall but only 244 pips for eachof the 40 positionposition
Big Difference:
The draw down is equal on all open positions as lot size is same and pip value same....only difference is deposit for the position.

say You have choosen to have 10 positions opened at 400:1, the only difference to the 100:1 being the deposit difference of 1000-250=750
So you are $ 750 better off and only using 2.5% of margin at 400:1 to open the same amount of positions at 100:1 which is using 10%.
There is no darkside to that

So at 400:1 then you have got an extra $750 of available margin to use in draw down if required.
Max Draw down 400:1 would be = 9750 pips for 10 positions 975 (100%margin used)
Max Draw down 100:1 would be = 9000 pips for 10 positions (100% margin used)

the margin% is floating once we open the position. Each pip is the same value. why have only 10 positions when you can play with 40 positions with the same margin. It is logical that you would make money or lose money quicker with 40 postions opposed to 10 positions. Leverage nothing to do with how many postions you choose to open..... i would prefer to open 10 at 400:1 then 10 at 100:1 as you have more margin available, and you will profit the same on the same 10 positions regardless of the leverage used.


If you had 40 lots opened at 100:1 then your margin used would be $4000 deposit for the positions, therfore you would have $6000 available margin. ie 6000pips, 600/position.
if you had 40 lots open at 400:1 then your margin used would be $1000 ($25/position *40) ....So have $9000 margin left, so can afford a 9000 pip fall.
900/position.

No magic to that. it is just the way it is.

Finally i could be at 10% margin used with one position open at 400:1 with one position open. it would be negative 1000pips could afford to drop another 9000 pips on that position.
It is not confusuing and there is no darkside!
it is just your deposit % for your position.....Thats it!

[HAUGHT007]

Originally Posted by trav72

Here you are basically saying your draw is dependent more so on how many lots opened not leverage.

The leverage is just the deposit needed for the open position.
there is no darkside
At the 100:1 if you only have 10 positions(mini lots = pip value $1) open, you can afford 9000 pip fall (900pips for each of the 10 position).
At 400:1 you have 40 positions open, therefore you can afford same 9000 pip fall but only 244 pips for eachof the 40 positionposition
Big Difference:
The draw down is equal on all open positions as lot size is same and pip value same....only difference is deposit for the position.

say You have choosen to have 10 positions opened at 400:1, the only difference to the 100:1 being the deposit difference of 1000-250=750
So you are $ 750 better off and only using 2.5% of margin at 400:1 to open the same amount of positions at 100:1 which is using 10%.
There is no darkside to that

So at 400:1 then you have got an extra $750 of available margin to use in draw down if required.
Max Draw down 400:1 would be = 9750 pips for 10 positions 975 (100%margin used)
Max Draw down 100:1 would be = 9000 pips for 10 positions (100% margin used)

the margin% is floating once we open the position. Each pip is the same value. why have only 10 positions when you can play with 40 positions with the same margin. It is logical that you would make money or lose money quicker with 40 postions opposed to 10 positions. Leverage nothing to do with how many postions you choose to open..... i would prefer to open 10 at 400:1 then 10 at 100:1 as you have more margin available, and you will profit the same on the same 10 positions regardless of the leverage used.


If you had 40 lots opened at 100:1 then your margin used would be $4000 deposit for the positions, therfore you would have $6000 available margin. ie 6000pips, 600/position.
if you had 40 lots open at 400:1 then your margin used would be $1000 ($25/position *40) ....So have $9000 margin left, so can afford a 9000 pip fall.
900/position.

No magic to that. it is just the way it is.

Finally i could be at 10% margin used with one position open at 400:1 with one position open. it would be negative 1000pips could afford to drop another 9000 pips on that position.
It is not confusuing and there is no darkside!
it is just your deposit % for your position.....Thats it!

yeah....that's pretty much what i said.....

[rrram2]

You coudl get a loss leader here. OR
you could go short here. OR
you could wait to get in long LOWER.

Just looking at the chart. It is obvious to me that I could get a loss leader here and make it work. I could also go short and be patient and hold it and pay rollover if need be tomorrow. It is coming down for a retrace assured.

The smarter thing to do is to wait and get long in the dip.
It is all about the oil though. And with recent dips in oil you can count on a rebound back up in oil. As to weather or not oil affects G vs J remains to be seen.

Last fall I called at 212.00 to get in with a loss leader. So here certainly 211.50 can be in the cards for bottoom support, heck it may not get below 212.00 before we get the next leg up.

She could trick us alltogether and RUN up without a retrace. But my money long is not even getting in here with a loss leader. Nor is my money getting in short, although I am sure SHE is going to run down eventually at least to 213.00 which also may be a good place to get a loss leader.

The thing about the loss leader is that it gives you an interest in the market. After this your focus HAS to be to scale down widely at least initially to avoid TMTH.

FXSOL is having a contest for most %age equity increase. So I have set my account up with 600.00 minimum for the contest is 500. Obviously those at 500 have an advantage as it is easier to increase equity on a smaller amount than it is on a larger amount. Anyways enrollment is automatic and you have until August 8th to fund your account.

Also at fxsol if you refer a friend who opens an account and funds with $1000,
after so many RT trades you get a $150 referral fee. I have one of these in the works with someone NOT from here. I am not using this thread to gain referrals for fxsol, merely telling people so they can do it if they have friends outside of babypips that may be interested in forex.

I think everyone should trade forex Forex is certainly more exciting than fixing broken networks, computers and whatever else people are always breaking and needing fixed. I sold my old refrigerator for $40!
Too bad the guy didnt come when we were only asking $20! It ewasn't until we raised the price for the frig (to $50) on the newer craigslist-listing that he called. We gave him $10 for gas to come pick it up.

So I say go short (CAREFULLY) or wait to get in at least down around 213.00 and hope the bus does not leave without you as: As sure as she will run down from here she will make a u-turn and run back up into 214.50/60
and from there it is wide open into like 216 or something. Once you pass 215,
she will really be burning some rubber. Anyways I need to draw some fibs LT MT and ST and wait and see how she acts at 4PM EDT when it opens here for me. If she is hung over she may just idle in the hummer. She may be angry and tear out North for all I know. Until she wakes up we will not know.