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  #2711 (permalink)  
Old 08-29-2008, 03:56 PM
FX-Men Honorary Member
 

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I don't know if anybody cares, but daily rsi below 20.
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  #2712 (permalink)  
Old 08-29-2008, 09:27 PM
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Default loose Correlation Gilt-JGB

I was pulling up some old charts. For 2008 at least the daily interest rate spread between the average daily 10y Guilt yields and the average 10y JGB yields are closely in line with the GBPYEN as you might expect, but looking more closely it seems more often than not the interest rate spread highs lead the FX by a day or two. Possibly because traders opening carry trades or basis arbitrage against JP bonds might wait to hedge their front end FX exposure. It also makes sense since a full carry trade involves a number of deals which may not all line up exactly at the same time typically...
Buy Japanese bond (receive fixed interest)
YenYen Interest rate swap Pay fixed, receive floating
Yen GBP basis swap pay floating yen receive floating GBP
GBP Interest rate swap pay floating GBP receive fixed GBP
Attached Images
File Type: jpg GiltJGB.jpg (55.7 KB, 9 views)
File Type: jpg GBPJPY.JPG (53.8 KB, 8 views)

Last edited by cuero; 08-29-2008 at 09:40 PM.
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  #2713 (permalink)  
Old 08-30-2008, 02:20 PM
ezz ezz is offline
 

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can someone post plz where did rrram2 explain the hedging part to control the margin?

another question: if u are using hedge and u have 1long and 1short at the SAME TIME wouldnt the ROLL OVERS CANCEL EACHOTHER OUT?

Last edited by ezz; 08-31-2008 at 06:32 AM.
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  #2714 (permalink)  
Old 08-31-2008, 07:00 PM
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Default I Dont Recommend Doing This

except as a last resort, I am ready to get sold out, before that happens I will place a hedge of the eact number of lots against the longs I have that way my margin freezes as one pip up or down has the same effect exactly the same net gain or loss for the offsetting trades.

No carry over for me is 40 cents on a short and 5 cents on a long
so I have to have 8 longs to pay the interest on one short.

So you will eventually get killed in interest if you have a short for every long.




Quote:
Originally Posted by ezz View Post
can someone post plz where did rrram2 explain the hedging part to control the margin?

another question: if u are using hedge and u have 1long and 1short at the SAME TIME wouldnt the ROLL OVERS CANCEL EACHOTHER OUT?
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  #2715 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 12:00 AM
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wish i left those damn shorts open for the weekend with a gap like that!
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  #2716 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 06:29 AM
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where is the bottom of the ocean. has the the G gone from the B....if you just had one short....... one opportunity............what would you do...
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  #2717 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 10:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewunknown View Post
Did a technical write-up in light of last night's action over at the other thread; details here:

GBP/JPY: Winning Strategies

Anyone adding long significantly at this level (~199)? Not a recommendation: just curious.
Good morning, Trav:

We have a significant congestion zone just above 194.02, which is where the 261.8% extension level is for the move from 206.52-201.79 (see linked post above for details). Price hasn't really looked back for the descending triangle break late last week.

I think this has been mentioned here or on the GBP/JPY winning strategies thread before, but the move from 192.64 to 215.89 was a rising wedge off of the decline from 252. Rising wedges are (sometimes unreliable) continuation patterns. The initial textbook goal for such a pattern is a 100% retracement from peak to trough: so, 192.64. Keep in mind because this a continuation pattern the pair could (by definition) continue on after that.

194 may turn things back: certainly the pair is very oversold...but I don't think so. Best to stay away from longs (unless you're adding equity for this strategy, of course) until the pair is firmly based out. All those upper wicks that are roughly 50% in length of the candle body on the 1H candles since 0400 ET this morning don't inspire much bullish confidence.

We'll probably stay in a tight range or have institutional orders yanking things around almost at random after 1100 ET.

Last edited by Andrewunknown; 09-01-2008 at 05:58 PM. Reason: misspelling
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  #2718 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 12:51 PM
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Lightbulb Well needless to say I got sold out playing around

Sometime yesterday morning. Playing it too tight BAH. I was within one and I think they screwed me as I had a hedge of the exact number of lots.

But I restarted yesterday as well and made back some of the 5000+ pips I lost on the sell out. I am back up about 888 pips since yesterday, but not feeling good about this chaos. I am adding more to the longs but have been leaning towards short.

Word is GB isnt going to cut rates this month and prolly not even this year and as much as 100 BPS by the end of NEXT year is expected. So I am not worried about GB interest rates. And am thinking we have to return up, holy cow.

But for now I am hedged by exactly the number of longs I have, so effectively going no where while I am working today outside, building on the farm.

I did make a boat load of pips on some runs down but not nearly as much as I lost. I have not even made back 20% of my losses from yesterday.
I dont have alot of margin. But I have learned some things obviously the hard way by paying or wasteing about $500 (5000 1K lot pips, some over the same price movemment). I think I have leanred some valuable lessons.
But I am not ready to recommend anyone try this crazy chaotic buying and selling at the same time.

I do think a key is playing that line where price IS. Obviosuly every tick the line changes. But 2 times last night I grabbed 300pips on one click
on some sorts. The longs have been doing nothing but drawing me down further. There was no rollover last night as I started trading at 4pm and there is no rollover on Sunday night.

For clarification when I say pips I mean pips of profit banked.
IT CAN BE OVER THE SAME PRICE MOVEMENT (for clarity).
So If I sell one at 197.00 196.90 and 196.80 and it moves down to 196.00
I buy all three back at 196.00 and make 270 pips, on 3 1K lots.
But we know that, thatis not really 270 pips as most people think of them as
that is really more like an average of 90 pips on EACH order, but as price moves 1 pip down on my shorts if I have 3 lots I count that as 3 pips when we all know it really is only 1 pip TIMES 3. I have explained this before.
I do this because I count banked pips and, not pips profit as price moves my way, because I dont talk about pips profit as a bragging device. I use pips profit to keep track of how many pips I make in profit. Hope everyone understands, as I am not trying to mislead anyone. SO when I make 888 pips it is more like 60 pips x 5 lots, 2 times made most of those. SO lets not have the bloody proper pip counting argument

Let me try to explain my objective and it is sheer madness.
I am playing both ends to the middle. I have my short orders going down and my long orders going up. The line in the "center" always changed with every tic. The "line" in NOT always in the center. However at any time when you have an equal amount of shorts and an equal amount of longs, YOUR USEABLE margin freezes. your only cost will be if you rollover and get negative interest as the broker doesnt or wont give you the same both ways on the swap.

So what you can do is cause an imbalance between the shorts and longs with a bias towards the direction you think price is moving. If you have for example 5 longs and 4 shorts, every pip price moves up you will gain a pip overall. subtract the larger of longs or shorts from the other and thats the number of pips you will get either way for each pip price moves up or down.

Play it too close and your broker or negative swap will get you. Play it wisely
and bank all sorts of pips as when she moves you will be loaded up with "bands" of opposing orders. In a sharp move down she could wipe you out if you are are not balanced between long and short orders.

The way to make pips is to get them whenever price moves in and out of your bands. It is not required to keep a exact balance of long and short orders, and some will have a hard time with the concept. As long as you watch your useable margin you should be ok. BUT OF COURSE TRY ON DEMO ACCOUNT FIRST, BEFORE YOU TRY IT ON A LIVE ACCOUNT.

I DID get wiped out YESTERDAY for 5000+ pips @ 1klots. SO DONT DO THIS AT HOME (LIVE) UNTIL AND IF YOU CAN LEARN HOW TO MAKE THIS WORK FOR YOU!!!

Just some ideas I thought it would be kind to share. It may be useless and a waste of money, But I and getting wise to my brokers tricks. HE ticked the long before the short! And sold me out in between OPPOSING ORDERS AT THE SAME PRICE!!! AT THE SAME TIME!!! SO I learned a valuable lesson there.

It was like when I used to trade at forex.com. 1/2 the battle was learning their platform, operations, devilish details on processes and what not.
Once they get over on you in a way you werent aware they could, you remember it and learn from it. I did not hesitate getting back in after I got my equity back, after I was sold out they refund the currency you were holding and covert it back to USD.

This hedging could be very viable but as of yet it is chaotic madness and lots of clicking and watching....scalping at its finest both ways. I doubt this strategy will appeal to the masses as it is much like my other strategy a bit unconventional. But like other areas in life, it IS ALL in HOW you LOOK at IT.

And it is safe ot say that the observed changes based on the "way" the observer is looking at it. There is an underlying serenity to the guppy
and I know almost all her secrets now.

And those wild traders from Sunday night dished out what I expected mad wild swings, I did miss some of that down but I got most of it, at least the second down, the first down wiped me out, then the down over last night
enriched me back. So it is wild trading this way.
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  #2719 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 01:12 PM
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Default Great insight as usual

I too am leaning towards the short side by one lot and trying to get another lot short higher. Have I lost my mind? I thought so at first until she started dropping and I had like 16 1k LOTS. So for every pip price moves up My drawdown increases 9 cents. I am ok with that. She is not looking very bullish. I was thinking a few times she was going to shoot for the moon.
But she has all sorts of dead weight holding her down now and she sure is still looking quite bearish despite the already huge run down.

I didnt even look back at any old charts. But I guess it is time to take the blinders off. She may not be headed back up real soon. In the mean time I will hold my longs and lean to the downside.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewunknown View Post
Good morning, Trav:

We have a significant congestion zone just above 194.02, which is where the 261.8% extension level is for the move from 206.52-201.79 (see linked post above for details). Price hasn't really looked back for the descending triangle break late last week.

I think this has been mentioned here or on the GBP/JPY winning strategies thread before, but the move from 192.64 to 215.89 was a rising wedge off of the decline from 252. Rising wedges are (sometimes unreliable) continuation patterns. The initial textbook goal for such a pattern is a 100% retracement from peak to trough: so, 192.54. Keep in mind because this a continuation pattern the pair could (by definition) continue on after that.

194 may turn things back: certainly the pair is very oversold...but I don't think so. Best to stay away from longs (unless you're adding equity for this strategy, of course) until the pair is firmly based out. All those upper wicks that are roughly 50% in length of the candle body on the 1H candles since 0400 ET this morning don't inspire much bullish confidence.

We'll probably stay in a tight range or have institutional orders yanking things around almost at random after 1100 ET.
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  #2720 (permalink)  
Old 09-01-2008, 07:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrewunknown View Post
Good morning, Trav:

I think this has been mentioned here or on the GBP/JPY winning strategies thread before, but the move from 192.64 to 215.89 was a rising wedge off of the decline from 252. Rising wedges are (sometimes unreliable) continuation patterns. The initial textbook goal for such a pattern is a 100% retracement from peak to trough: so, 192.64. Keep in mind because this a continuation pattern the pair could (by definition) continue on after that.

194 may turn things back: certainly the pair is very oversold...but I don't think so. Best to stay away from longs (unless you're adding equity for this strategy, of course) until the pair is firmly based out. All those upper wicks that are roughly 50% in length of the candle body on the 1H candles since 0400 ET this morning don't inspire much bullish confidence.
Speaking of which: just made 192.69
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