GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

[rrram2]

Looks like we are heading back down now.

I am leaning to the short side again. I banked all sorts of pips overnight especially aropund 430-600AM EDT.

MY account balance is increasing fast, but so is my drawdown.

So all is well so far so good.

[rrram2]

at 9 cnets per pip, so not including that 500 which was post restart of trading after getting sold out. I would be up money not counting all previous losses But I have less than 20% equity now. I had to sell off a couple high longs as she ran down to release margin so I could buy more shorts.
THis is chaos like I said 3 months ago. But it working for me but I dont know if allthis mental torture is worth the small unit size ( am using 1K lots).
We will see. But if it ends up thaqt I again learn another lesson the hard way, it will be worth it as less than 1/2 of my account balance is my money, it is profits, as long as I dont get sold out, I will be OK. And so far so good.
But I dont think I like all this maddening chaos of playing her up and down, it requires lots of time and attention, unlike my old go long only strategy, which would have been sold out long ago.

Originally Posted by akeakamai

You are right but you are agreeing with me

You just told me how the only thing that matters is your net position. The part of your position that IS HEDGED is not making any money from price movement, BUT it is LOSING money on the interest rate swap. So why not just trade the net portion and save that money?

So how are you doing? If you closed everything would you actually be up money, like in your example?

[rrram2]

I am now at 26L and 26S so I have 52 orders 1/2 L and 1/2S spread over 1000 pips. Where ever she goes excpet in between the lowest long and highest short, I will generate unrealized gains. WHen I take those gains,
yes I have an offsetting order that has the exact same amount of pip loss.

But see whats happening? I am getting a boatload of live working orders
And when she moves significantly I pip her. Over time my orders will build.
I will spend my margin in new offsetting orders and at some point they will ALL cancel out.

A few times I was 26L and 16S, but she ran down again. Once I get a god imbalance like that and she is going my way I am gaining 10 pips for every pip price moves my way, SO I am making "spreads" which I will hold as long as need be on all orders, and let her cash them out naturally when they hit TP or when I am actively trading her. But While I am away I have a tight balance like 10L 10S, or I lean 10L 9S, or 9L 10S That way every pip of price movement only results in a change of 9 cents per pip of movement either for or against me.

I really think at this point this is going to work. I don't mind being the test pig. SO for every $1 I make I add 50 cents in drawdown or there abouts depending on my balance. I am not letting her go against me in an imbalnce so I dont lose 9 cents per pip against me I only want to make 9 cents a pip as it moves in my favor.

ONly time will tell. I will be sure to let everyone here know, either way,
if I get sold out again or if my account balance continues to increase faster than my drawdown. If the latter is the case eventually I will get her.
Because as my example goes, maybe a more realistic scenario is 1,000,000 USD in account balance and 900,000 in drawdown, in which case I am ok with sqring up and walking with 100K.

[rrram2]

will yield negative interest of about $8.86 for the day taking the shorts interest and subtracting the long interest leaves a net interest of about 8.86
which is less than 100 pips, so I am not gaining that much if I am not trading and sitting balanced (hedged 100%).

OF COURSE I DONT RECOMMEND ANYONE TRADE LIKE THIS.
BUT I ALSO DO RECOMMEND that if you are ONLY holding longs and she keeps running down, I think now you have to hedge them if NEED be to prevent a margin call which normally results in getting all your orders sold out, and no one wants this, NOT even me .
As to why don't I trade short and long without hedging, I guess that will be next as I MAY realize this current method is going to make me bald!

[rrram2]

I sure would like to trade guppy one way at one time and get her long and short and always make pips, and never lose them, but we all know the guppy is the most wild beast around, and anyone claiming to be able to pick her tps and bottoms is dreaming, even I dont claim to be able to do that all the time,
but very often I DO pick her tops and bottoms.

Maybe I should go back to trading the old way like a professional trader who uses SL's when price goes against him, and like a professional that HOLDS his winners until they reach his TP, instead of (like me) sqring the orders EARLY before any real significant pips are made.

Thanks for the insight, and you have some good points.

Originally Posted by akeakamai

You are right but you are agreeing with me

You just told me how the only thing that matters is your net position. The part of your position that IS HEDGED is not making any money from price movement, BUT it is LOSING money on the interest rate swap. So why not just trade the net portion and save that money?

So how are you doing? If you closed everything would you actually be up money, like in your example?

[rrram2]

"Do what you love and the money will follow."

Marsha Sinetar


Now I am just waiting for the money. I guess the wild sunday night was due to the feds or USGOV or someone of the sort bailing out freedie and fannie, they have been taken over by the GOV, and will be run by the gov now I guess. This is bad as we know the GOV can screw up cornflakes. So if Freddie and Fannie couldnt do it what makes the gov think they can do it?>

The GOV cant even balance its check book DOH! what are they going to do now? Take over freddie and fannie and dirve them into bankrupcy.

As a result all the majors banks stocks are up, like BOA chase and the like.

[rrram2]

or is she doing me?!?

Originally Posted by rrram2

"Do what you love and the money will follow."

Marsha Sinetar


Now I am just waiting for the money. I guess the wild sunday night was due to the feds or USGOV or someone of the sort bailing out freedie and fannie, they have been taken over by the GOV, and will be run by the gov now I guess. This is bad as we know the GOV can screw up cornflakes. So if Freddie and Fannie couldnt do it what makes the gov think they can do it?>

The GOV cant even balance its check book DOH! what are they going to do now? Take over freddie and fannie and dirve them into bankrupcy.

As a result all the majors banks stocks are up, like BOA chase and the like.

[rrram2]

"Do what you can, with what you have, where you are!"

Theodore Roosevelt

[rrram2]

And the money will follow. It has to. It is law!
I still think the japs are selling yen for pound, while everyone else must be selling pound for YEn. It is a crazy mixed up world, except for guppy!
She is the only sane pair in forex!

Originally Posted by pakiestra

What is this crazy girl doing ?????????????????????
Within last 2 hrs of trading I've managed to come across two things:
Banked 5000 pips on her mad run up and run down - I truly love her.
I have put some orders before an opening as the Bloomberg at 10.00 EST showed me Mr Bold Paulson promising to look after artificialy created bad debts in Fannie's.
Markets are longing for a breather so after a mad run I will stand aside and see what happens next.
And now b. I have been left with a question: how much is this mad run are going to take ?

[rrram2]

"You cannot discover new oceans (shorts) unless you have the courage to lose sight of the shore (longs)."

Unknown