GBP/JPY Equity Building Profitable trading strategies

[Andrewunknown]

Nah, I've been trading this way on the Guppy for a long time. I won't pretend I don't make mistakes (lord knows), but after hundreds of trades I can tell a high probability entry from a punt pretty well and plan accordingly. Leaving a long @ 207.69 (like the one I took earlier) on auto-pilot with the resistance aligned @ 208 is a punt. It begs the question of why I took the trade in the first place, to which I'll concede: the occasional routine and inconsequential renunciation of discipline.

I can tell you my bias remains bearish (sorry Elijah); but I'm never averse to upside pips.

[pipsquito]

Long, 208.08....why on earth did I do that???

So interesting, after I made the trade, I just stared at the screen and thought to myself "am I insane, do I have visions of 212 dancing in my head?? What did I just do??"

Well, there it sits.

We did make it up to 208.90ish last run up, didn't we? Well, ya gotta believe in something. It will return.

[pipsquito]

I'm just kidding of course. My girlfriend says "its the guppy, it'll always come back, you can be sure of that. I will ALWAYS have a guppy long trade in position." When she closes one at a profit, she opens another. She is a "forex whisperer"...she looks at the charts..."senses" where the pair is going and places trades accordingly (she does look at trend...so who needs more?) She made $35,000 this week trading 2 standard lots on a trade in a $150,000 demo account. She totally overextends herself (has many trades open, although keeps margin intact) and makes a killing. I am waiting for her to crash and burn, but so far all my "learnin'" has done little to outperform her.

Sad.

[pipsquito]

Just looked at that Elliot Wave prediction...192.60 eh? Big deal. Lots of pips to be made from the run back up. I have a feeling its going to do some yo-yoing along the way. Anyway....it would be nice if it hit 208/209 again before its run down. If it does go as far as 192, space out those longs!

Ha!

Todd

[Andrewunknown]

Originally Posted by pipsquito

My girlfriend says "its the guppy, it'll always come back, you can be sure of that. I will ALWAYS have a guppy long trade in position."

It may come back, but how long are you prepared to wait? That's the one thing about this method that prevents me from affording it serious consideration: undaunted optimism about being long any pair is ultimately little more than superstition, wishful thought and short-sighted bias. That sounds a bit harsh, but you can wait an awfully long time - months, years - for a pair to swing back around and vindicate your decision to hold. Or you can get margined out: just ask someone with a loss leader @ 252 from last July. We've been through all of that before, and buying low has been established as fundamental, so no need to rehash it; but nothing is so inextricably bound as support to the Guppy - even the carry trade - that the pair cannot plummet beyond what you're willing or able to bear.

Those are my unsolicited, cautionary 2 cents for the day.

[pipsquito]

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

It may come back, but how long are you prepared to wait? That's the one thing about this method that prevents me from affording it serious consideration: undaunted optimism about being long any pair is ultimately little more than superstition, wishful thought and short-sighted bias. That sounds a bit harsh, but you can wait an awfully long time - months, years - for a pair to swing back around and vindicate your decision to hold. Or you can get margined out: just ask someone with a loss leader @ 252 from last July. We've been through all of that before, and buying low has been established as fundamental, so no need to rehash it; but nothing is so inextricably bound as support to the Guppy - even the carry trade - that the pair cannot plummet beyond what you're willing or able to bear.

Those are my unsolicited, cautionary 2 cents for the day.

Oh yes...I know you are right, no question. It has been the big "hey, what if..." that I have had since the start of this. There ARE points, high points, where the pair has not returned to in months, and may never... Elijah does say "who cares if it is years, collect your interest and keep building your balance." That is fine, I understand that, but my psychology is such that having that draw down on my account would drive me insane. And it limits other trading if it gets too extensive. If this IS a huge drop with no end in sight, and no probable return to 208 in any foreseeable future, I will close the position (after collecting short pips all the way down!!)

However, there IS something to superstition...as you call it...and I believe that in some way my choice will work out in my favor. Maybe I'll make some other trade that makes up for it. My work in the forex is as much a study in positive thinking, intuition, and affirmative reinforcement as it is in studying charts and evaluating news. Although I would not go so far as to say my thoughts change the course of the market (although some might argue it does!) I do think my thoughts affect my decisions and that there is a guiding principle that keeps those decisions in alignment with my deep convictions and intentions. This may sound like hooey but I think whether we are aware of it or not, it has great impact on the way we navigate through life.

Making the decision to buy at 208.08 may not mean it will return there and beyond to give me tons of pips, but it was the right decision...and will lead to exactly what I am focused on, which I truly believe is success in this market.

Let's just have fun!! I love it!

Thanks for the post...I didn't think it was harsh at all.

Todd

[4xStar]

Originally Posted by Andrewunknown

It may come back, but how long are you prepared to wait? That's the one thing about this method that prevents me from affording it serious consideration: undaunted optimism about being long any pair is ultimately little more than superstition, wishful thought and short-sighted bias.

Hmm ... it is quite a bit more than superstition & wishful thought as Elijah knows very well. But no point in going there as this is not a physics forum
That said, I am not yet an expert at creating my own reality .. in fact most days I suck at it. So I have to obey the lesser laws of physics which means if the Vegas Geisha is heading south, I need to get out of the way and wait at or near the next bottom .. my real account cannot support any other action.
Now, I could see setting up a separate micro account and just using it to buy & hold & collect the interest .. but like Pipsquito, I would not be able to take seeing that huge drawdown in my active account day after day. That would definitely mess with my reality-creating thoughts!

So in the real (micro) account, I closed all longs, opened one short (disloyal, I know .. ) but in a micro, this is more for experimentation than gains, and I shall await her next clear signal, which at this point I hope there's a nice fall to 200-ish so we can get that out of the way & start buying again.

In demo account I have 15 lots long from 207.76 to 209.32. With $568k balance, I am not worried about margin there, and that account is purely to see what happens if you just buy & collect interest. I've taken it from 500k to 568k in 10 trading days by doing that so I want to see just what will happen if I continue to play it a la Elijah & stay long no matter what.

I still think he's a genius. I just have to work more on sucking less at this reality-creating thing. The theoretical physicists are now in agreement that that is what we all do each day....


PS if you are wondering about my avatar, check out the "why aren't there more women" thread ... this is what I look like without the gas-mask

[rrram2]

But for me sharing isn't much like work.

I read all the posts and y'all have been busy.

I can tell you I still have longs up as high as 208.59 which I feel good about.
I killed them during NFP. It wasn't far off from what I expected.

I got all sorts of orders that were filled down low then closed after hitting Tp seconds later. It was lots of fun trying to catch those crazy green orders on my screen. IT was alomost like playing one of those web based games where you manuver the mouse and play some sort of game.

I am the bearer of good news here. GJ has already hit bottom march 17.
GJ will fall no further than 205.50/20 overnight (2-5AM EDT Monday).
BEFORE NY opens GJ will be sailing up out of the 205's. I have not checked any news yet for Monday, But I suspect we will be back up testing 209.00.

Depsite anything anyone here says, knows, believes or hopes, will be able to delay, detour, or dement the dollars correction against the Yen especially.
You can study the charts all you want sometimes, and may think you see something that could possibly happen, however there are forces far greater
at work here than anyone here can see as they are not part of the 99% that makes up your reality on a daily basis.

Even forex is controlled by the collective conciousness, which will return the dollar to power. $98 in GJ pays almost 15,000 USD in interest over 40 years WITHOUT compounding. $1000 in GJ pays around 150,000 USD in 40 years.

Why get a mortgage? Only a fool saves his money for 40 years so he can buy a house! I can assure you in 40 years the prices of Improved Land is going to double over and over and over again. Hold pound long against yen
is almost as good of a hedge against inflation as Improved land. Only a fool
buys someone else improved land (ANY RENT PAID FOR PREMESIS).

Charts are one thing and I heavily rely on them but world economics and interest rates, and news events make the market move. Looking at history and ignoring the present is like a blind man going through a maze.
There is no question what is happening now will affect the rest of the year.
I am not a prophet. I cannot see the future. I do not spend significant amounts of time analyzing the past. There are literally dozens of things going on now indicating beyond a shadow of a doubt that the diollar is coming back. There is no way we are going any where near 192 this decade.
Elliot waves are ONLY relative indications of future possible movements.

I am long, WIll stay long. ANd will buy long all the way down into 204's if by some fluke we can get down past 205.50/20 and 205.00 into the 204's.
I will buy all the way down through 206's into 205's.

There are just not enough bears in the world to win this battle against the mighty warrior. Only reason we even got ran down on 3/17 is because they ganged up on us, surprised us, and slammmed us, instantly after coming out of hibernation. We are in the Hot Dog Days of Summer here, so they are lolly gagging around down at the creek dreaming of some salmon. I am sorry but the bears are history UNTIL sometime next YEAR. And I am willing to put all my money where my mouth is on this bet.

As ignorant as I can be sometimes, Let us not forget that I consult two market experts (with combined market experience of almost 100 years) on a daily basis. My Uncle is a forex expert who often makes 2000 pips a day,
trading every and any pair that meets profitable trade guidlines. My Father has made millions and lost millions in the market. His insight is the keenest insight I have ever witnessed in one man. Being a multimillionaire does not make one a genius. Nor does one need to be a genius to be ONE.
I am no genius, I need to remain humble as Humility is the #1 attribute in the world.

[pipsquito]

Nice post 4xStar....

Well, I believe our reality is as we believe it to be, and I also believe in alternate, parallel realities, i.e., what Elijah believes manifests in his universe, and if we believe differently--that the GJ will go down instead of up--that belief manifests in our reality...along side of Elijah's contradictory reality. We may then see, in our reality, Elijah suffering the consequences of our beliefs (remember, we see this in our reality, Elijah is enjoying his own reality that is manifesting what he believes).Then in our reality the GJ is going down, and we are saying "see, Elijah was wrong, I was right." This paradigm can get very dicey, and is very difficult to get your head around, although modern physics does support its possibility.

That being said, I personally am too caught up in believing that what seems to be consensus reality has an affect on my experience. I don't think I am quite as advanced as Elijah is, with regard to his own unwavering conviction. So what he says will not become a reality in my experience if I don't fully believe it (that the GJ WILL go up eventually and all will be well). However, I have gotten so far as to believe that everything I do has good purpose toward manifesting my own intentions, regardless of what the mechanisms look like used to create that manifestation. Although I won't be able to walk on water I will be able to buy a boat and sail across it. Ye of little faith, eh?

Elijah is a prophet....or he embodies the prophet....as we all do in some manner or form. I know what he is teaching me, and I love it. If he appears to me to fail, I know it is my own beliefs that "cause" him to fail in my own little alternate universe. He is doing just as he believes in his own. And I would assume that to be pretty well. His words are Truth. Even if you don't see what he says as coming to be...that is because you don't really believe what he is saying.

Ahhh....pretty weird, eh? But....we all practice this philosophy whether we are conscious of it not. We don't need to be conscious of its power, but if we are, we can have anything we desire.

Todd

[Andrewunknown]

This thread just took a turn into populist metaphysics. This is neither a philosophy, theoretical physics, nor a cultural criticism forum, so I'll forgo any comments not concretely pertinent to the Guppy.