Quote:
Originally Posted by mytwopips
I only made a little bit. I scalped my g/j and decided that u/j would be a better short. Well after 15 hours I made a whole 8 pips on u/j and guppy sank. My guppy scalps were more than my u/j overnight.
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In that case we can jump out our basement windows together
Are you getting long here? I got TMTH as usual ... but everytime she makes one of these runs, I learn a little more about her ways. I am trying to figure out a smart way of doing this.
I pm'd Andrew about this idea, did not want to put it in E's thread due to distraction .. but what about .. when she takes off in one direction or another & for example you think she is moving down so you want to start accumulating long positions .. why not take one short position for every 2 long? Get them in groups of 3's ... one short, 2 long, then if you are right and she keeps dropping ... after 50 pips (or 65?) another one short and 2 long, and so on to the limit of what you can afford safely. But since you are 1/3 hedged you can afford a bit more I think...
When you are pretty sure she is finally turning, you cash in the shorts starting with the first one (the most profitable).
I was thinking of shorting the GC for every 2 GY longs .. but they do not always move in sync. If you do 1 for 1, you could get whipsawed .. but if you put the bias in favor of the direction you think she will ultimately go, you provide a slight hedge & if lucky, some extra pips.
What do you think?
As I said to Andrew, this would not apply to other pairs, I have no problem spotting their setups and trading them .. but as you saw with the U-J last night it could take 3 lifetimes to make any real money
Once smitten by the guppy, there is no turning back .. just gotta figure out how to read her.
07-24-2008, 02:41 PM
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