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  #1151 (permalink)  
Old 09-06-2008, 12:27 AM
 

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Default Knowing the Majors

Thank you, James for the excellent synopsis of the Majors. Could you please point me to your source for such information?

Many thanks.

quin
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  #1152 (permalink)  
Old 09-11-2008, 07:42 PM
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Hi there James here

The limits of demo trading

Let's face it. Trading on a demo platform is essentially a game. There is no real risk involved. As such it does not replicate real trading, at least from an emotional perspective. Yes, a good demo platform provides the trader with a look at how prices move, how transactions are handled, how profits and losses are derived, and all that important stuff. As such, it is an invaluable resource to someone new to trading as they learn the steps. A demo platform is also a great tool for the design and testing of new strategies.
Paper trading, though, cannot suitably create the same kind of mental scenarios one faces when actual money is on the line, though. This is a hugely important part of trading.
The markets will strip you down. Of that you can absolutely be sure. If you have some flaw in your work ethic, discipline, motivation, or anything else, trading will expose it. Some things may come to light through demo trading, but more than likely they will be overlooked because that kind of trading "doesn't really matter" so one has no real motivation to address anything of that sort. It is when real money is on the line that the cracks in one's make-up really show. The earlier a trader can figure out what her/his personal weaknesses are, the quicker they can be addressed.
Successful traders are the ones that understand their personal flaws. They either find ways to exploit their strengths while keeping their weaknesses out of play, or make personal adjustments to get rid of those habits which cause them trouble.


Pitfalls of going live

In this modern day, demo trading and real-life trading is mostly very close. In some cases, brokers have identical platforms for both. Other do not, though. That means trade executions could be significantly different, especially during high volatility periods such as when major economic releases are reported. This sort of thing can make a very meaningful difference between how one's trading goes when demo trading and when it gets shifted to real-world.
From the mental side of things, traders seem to go one of two ways when they first trade with real money. They are fearful, afraid of losing money, or supremely confident, sure that they will succeed. Those with trepidation generally suffer from second-guessing, failure to pull the trigger, and general uncertainty. The confident traders often fly by the seat of their pants, put on trades too big for them, and generally fail to follow their plan.
Interestingly, both types of traders can find themselves following a similar path as they first put their own money at stake. The tendency is to spend too much time in front of the screen – regardless of the actual trading timeframe in question. This is represented by our discussion of Figure 3 earlier. New traders often have their market focus zoomed in to an extreme – living and dying with every change in price. And depending on whether their first trade is a winner or loser, they can flip personality types, with the fearful one becoming confident and the confident one becoming fearful.
This whole period of getting overly focused on short-term price action (relatively speaking) doesn't just stop at producing manic emotions. It can actually lead to a destructive pattern of over-analysis. One side of that is the hesitant behavior mentioned earlier in regards to fearful traders second-guessing and/or failing to pull the trigger. Call that over-thinking.
The other side of over-analysis is actually that one literally generates new analysis much too frequently. This is a major trap for professional analysts who are expected to always have something new to say. They essentially reanalyze the market with each new price bar. The result is that their analysis never has an opportunity to mature one way or the other. Because of how focused new traders often are on every price move, significant or otherwise, they also struggle with over-analysis in much the same way. It leads to things like flip-flopping positions, not out of fear, but because of a new outlook on the market.
Further, over-analysis has a very dangerous cousin in the form of over-trading. If one is constantly reanalyzing the market, then it is likely that he/she is trading more frequently than perhaps is best. This is a different kind of over-trading from taking on positions which are too large relative to one's capitalization (a money management discussion for another day), but can be equally as destructive – more so in some ways.


Learning from the jump

So what can a novice trader do to learn the most when making the move to live trading while keeping the "tuition" as low as possible? First and foremost, trading small is imperative. Trade the least amount permissible in terms of size. This will allow for the making of all kinds of mistakes without doing too much harm to one's financial standing. Education costs money one way or another, but there's nothing which says one has to pay more than is necessary. In modern trading there are so many options for trading small positions that there is no excuse for the new trader to take oversized losses.
If one starts off trading small, miniscule even, then the focus can really be on what is important – learning about the practical aspects of trading. That includes both the price and execution side of things where it relates to variances between demo and live trading platforms. Even more importantly, it also means learning what kind of psychological impact trading is going to have.
A major learning element of moving to live trading is in the area of risk tolerance. The reality of facing losses in actual money terms forces a great many traders in to reevaluating their personal risk profile. Considering how important this is to one's trading plan, it is something very significant in the education of a new market participant.
The other big element one must evaluate when shifting from demo to live trading is discipline. This is something which is spoken about over and over and over again as being perhaps the single biggest deciding factor in a trader's success. It is the ability to stick to one's plan. Moving in to real money trading tests the novice trader's discipline in so many ways. Those that go on to have success have good discipline, either in terms of finding a trading style which matches their personality (making discipline easy) or developing a basic grit-your-teeth kind of focus on executing.
If one gets nothing more than a better understanding of her/his personal risk tolerance and the importance of maintaining good discipline, then making the jump to live trading early is more than worth the cost of whatever losses might have be incurred. Anything else is a welcome bonus.


Conclusion

Learning to trade is all about getting to the point of being successful with real money in real market situations. Demo trading definitely has its place, but the introduction of live trading early in one's development can accelerate the overall rate of learning by showing one exactly what must be addressed for success, mechanically and mentally.
It is hard to ensure a level of success in the process, as one might do in other learning environments. After all, the market doesn't care whether you have two minutes trading experience or two decades. It will treat you the same. At least, however, one can minimize the potential damage by taking baby steps and trading very small when the initial plunge is made.
What's more, there is nothing to say that once one jumps in to real money trading that he/she cannot move back over to demo trading. In fact, that can be a great way to develop solid trading methods, ones which can be researched with no monetary risk, but with a clear understanding of how implementation will take place in a live situation. All the more reason to get exposed to live trading as early as possible.




Regards


James
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  #1153 (permalink)  
Old 09-16-2008, 04:46 PM
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Hi there James here

OK there it is after nearly 2 years with the the IB SYSTEM 72.22% win rate may long may it continue.

Well done to all members old and new

Thanks to one and all


James

Last edited by james; 09-16-2008 at 04:49 PM.
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  #1154 (permalink)  
Old 09-18-2008, 11:37 AM
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Hi there James here

Markets stabilize a bit after world's major central bank's concerted effort to inject liquidity into the markets as well as talk of mergers of financial institutions. Morgan Stanley is believed to be beginning official merger talks with Wachovia. Nevertheless, funds are still flow out from US dollar to other European majors and commodities. EUR/USD finally broke 1.4481 near term resistance and is still strong. Sterling is additionally supported by better than expected retail sales report from UK. Crude oil is now back above $100 again while gold remains firm around $880 level.
Fed, ECB, BoJ BOE and BoC announced coordinated effort to almost quadrupled the amount of dollars central banks can auction around the world to ease the east the crisis in short term dollar funding markets. Central banks can now auction up to a total of $247b, up from $67b. In other words, a total of $180b is additionally injected into the markets. Under the arrangement, ECB doubled its limit of dollars it can get from Fed from $55b to $110b. SNB had extra $15b to offer, up from $12b to $27b. BoJ, BoE and BoC can offer $60b, $40b and $10b respectively. The arrangements are authorized until Jan 30, 09.
SNB left three-month Libor unchanged at 2.25-3.25%, mid point at 2.75% as widely expected. Data released today saw US jobless claims climbed to 455k. Canadian leading indicators rose 0.3% in Aug. Wholesale sales rose 2.3% mom in Jul. UK Retail sales was surprisingly strong, rising 1.2% mom in Aug comparing to expectation of -0.5%. Yoy rate jumped to 3.3%. Swiss trade surplus narrowed less than expected to 1.43b. Philly Fed index and US leading indicators will be released in the US session later.



Good Trading
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  #1155 (permalink)  
Old 09-24-2008, 12:28 PM
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I hate to be a pain, but I have a question that I can't answer after reading this thread. Is the IB or OB based candle bodies or complete candlesticks? Like for an IB to be valid, should the IB body and wick be engulfed by the previous candles body or both body and wick, or are we mainly talking just bodies??
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  #1156 (permalink)  
Old 09-24-2008, 01:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by edacsac View Post
I hate to be a pain, but I have a question that I can't answer after reading this thread. Is the IB or OB based candle bodies or complete candlesticks? Like for an IB to be valid, should the IB body and wick be engulfed by the previous candles body or both body and wick, or are we mainly talking just bodies??
It is the engulfing pattern as in the thumbnail.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg ib (1000 x 773).jpg (19.2 KB, 93 views)
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  #1157 (permalink)  
Old 09-24-2008, 01:59 PM
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Yes, I believe wicks are included.
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  #1158 (permalink)  
Old 09-25-2008, 02:35 PM
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Hi there James here
Well good day in the live lounge today 3 good trades for upto 100 pips markets still slow

Markets remain generally steady in early US session despite poor economic data released from US. All investors and traders are awaiting the conclusion of the $700b bailout plan. It's believed that after two days of congressional testimonies, the lawmakers are close to approving the deal. President Bush will meet Republican and Democratic leaders at 1955 GMT to hammer out the details of the rescue plan. Durable goods orders dropped sharply by -4.5% in Aug, much worse than expectation of -1.6%. Ex-transport orders also dropped -3.0% versus consensus of -0.5%. Jobless claimed surged from revised 461k to 493k. New home sales will be released later in the US session.



IB SYSTEM LIVE LOUNGE


Having had a great responce to the 40-100 pips aday trading system
I was asked if is was possible to start a live group to trade the market.

I am doing this from 7.00 am GMT UK time until around 3.30pm GMT UK time were you can trade live with me each day Tuesday to Friday in a members lounge.Dont worry if you can't attend every day as the info is repeated daily and you have video refrence's.


Training with live charts and step by step interactive guidance learning how to trade the system including,


A. / How to Know exactly when to place your entry order
B. / How to Know exactly when to place you stop loss
C. / How to Know exactly when to place your profit objective

Training session's live on screen in real time after the morning session in the Live lounge plus video's so you can go over the trade set ups again and again you also have the ability to record the training sessions.

New Traders welcome / trade demo / Live / at your own pace


Please read the system on the 1st page of this thread

Between 40-100 pips per Day


Also

News Trading

Possible to make exrta pips

ON LIVE NEWS TRADES





Limited space avalible to register email me on

ibsystem@hotmail.co.uk

Last edited by james; 09-25-2008 at 02:37 PM.
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  #1159 (permalink)  
Old 09-26-2008, 11:56 AM
 

Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2
Question Win/Loss Ratio of this System

Hi!

My first post!

In my quest for a simple yet effective trading system, this one caught my interest.

Can those trading with this method for a while please inform me of their winning versus losing trades averages?

(indicating how long they have been trading with this method, strictly "to the letter" or with addition of other indicators, if they are trading real money, and if they have been trained thru the Live Trading Program offered by James?)

I am trying to get a real feel for the effectiveness trading live this method. At the end of the month, are you with a nice positive - and growing - live account balance?

Thank you for your help!

Future Successful Trader In Training
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  #1160 (permalink)  
Old 09-30-2008, 06:09 PM
 

Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 2
Thumbs down I guess not...

I guess I was hoping for a positive to my question. That effectively someone had been using strictly this strategy with discipline "live" since several months (other than James) with results that could show somewhat its effectiveness long term in changing markets.

50% winning trades, 60%? No one has an idea?

With all the replies and views to these two threads I thought there would be more interest. Maybe there was response to similar questions previously, but I could not sift thru every single post in the two threads to find out...

I had received a real quick response to my email on how to register for the live trading training though... I simply wanted to do more homework before hitting the Paypal "send" button....

There are so many strategies out there, and also a lot of hype...(not saying this one is, I am talking "generally speaking") it is easy to be attracted when you want to learn as much as I do. I guess a lot of you here have "been there, done that"...

Good luck to everyone in their quest!

Future Successful Trader In Training
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