Neural Network EMA system (NeuroTrend)

[rikhart]

Originally Posted by aroonraj

@ All,

Attached is the script file to output signals for training. I did not add it to the main indicator as it would confuse the newbies.

@ getsumpips,

You seem to have experience in coding and writing interface files for various NN tool. Would you like to modify the attached script with the new design we have discussed in this thread. I would really appreciate if someone can give support in coding the export files.


Cheers!
Arun

Even newbies can contribute

Start thread on Neural Nets 101. Any way, we can still catch some pips

You can use this develop your srategy then develop your NN to do just that

[Ilovepippin]

I have been reading this topic with great interest. Quick question(s) however:
Why are you using lagging indicators to forecast priceaction?
If you are using the EMA to forecast price, doesn't it predict the current price since it is persistantly using data from 15 minutes ago?

Also, can this nn be converted to a H1 timeframe?

Final question, where do you keep the data thet the system has thought? And is it retrainable, with different, more current or historical data. As you know last year was dollar beating year and this year was recession, so very limited data as patterns have been pretty much the same = big move up.

Thanks in advance.

[nabil114]

Many traders apply neural nets incorrectly because they place too much trust in the software they use all without having been provided with proper instructions on how to use it properly. To use a neural network the right way and, thus, gainfully, a trader ought to pay attention to all the stages of the network preparation cycle. It is the trader and not his or her net that is responsible for inventing an idea, formalizing this idea, testing and improving it, and, finally, choosing the right moment to dispose of it when it's no longer useful. Let us consider the stages of this crucial process in more detail:

1. Finding and Formalizing a Trading Idea
A trader should fully understand that his or her neural network is not intended for inventing winning trading ideas and concepts. It is intended for providing the most trustworthy and precise information possible on how effective your trading idea or concept is. Therefore, you should come up with an original trading idea and clearly define the purpose of this idea and what you expect to achieve by employing it. This is the most important stage in the network preparation cycle. (For related reading, see Lessons From A Trader's Diary.)

2. Improving the Parameters of Your Model
Next, you should try to improve the overall model quality by modifying the data set used and adjusting the different the parameters.



Figure 1: Specifying the optimization algorithm and its properties

3. Disposing of the Model When it Becomes Obsolete
Every neural-network based model has a life span and cannot be used indefinitely. The longevity of a model's life span depends on the market situation and on how long the market interdependencies reflected in it remain topical. However, sooner or later any model becomes obsolete. When this happens, you can either retrain the model using completely new data (i.e. replace all the data that has been used), add some new data to the existing data set and train the model again, or simply retire the model altogether.

Many traders make the mistake of following the simplest path - they rely heavily on and use the approach for which their software provides the most user-friendly and automated functionality. This simplest approach is forecasting a price a few bars ahead and basing your trading system on this forecast. Other traders forecast price change or percentage of the price change. This approach seldom yields better results than forecasting the price directly. Both the simplistic approaches fail to uncover and gainfully exploit most of the important longer-term interdependencies and, as a result, the model quickly becomes obsolete as the global driving forces change.

Conclusion
You will experience real success with neural nets only when you stop looking for the best net. After all, the key to your success with neural networks lies not in the network itself, but in your trading strategy. Therefore, to find a profitable strategy that works for you, you must develop a strong idea about how to create a committee of neural networks and use them in combination with classical filters and money management rules.

note: not my words but i agree with them. i cant post links.

i had some success with my system. i will start posting more result after i finalize everything.

[adimsh]

Originally Posted by aroonraj

@ All,

Attached is the script file to output signals for training. I did not add it to the main indicator as it would confuse the newbies.

Cheers!
Arun

Hi Aroon,

Thanks for your great job, I have a comment regarding the output values of your writer:

you are using

output[0] = EMA5(1)-EMA5(2)
output[1] = EMA5(2)-EMA5(3)
output[2] = EMA5(3)-EMA5(4)

This will predict 3 different EMAs(at different shifts), I suggest your output to be:

output[0] = EMA5(1)-EMA5(2)
output[1] = EMA5(1)-EMA5(3)
output[2] = EMA5(1)-EMA5(4)

This will predict 3 values for the EMA at the same shift, allowing for more precise prediction if you average the values.


One more thing about FANN, I have a CLI fann tool written by me, running on Windows, if you are serious about using FANN tool, I can post the EXE here.


Regards,

[nabil114]

"This is an efficient system of scalping that works in 1 minute up to 1 day all periods and all Currency

Ema 3
Ema 5
Ema 7
Ema 9
Ema 11
Ema 13
Color yellow

Ema 21
Ema 24
Ema 27
Ema 30
Ema 33
Ema 36
color Green

Ema 55 Color Red

Well
The system in The Oanda Forum.

And Way Works is

Buy Or Sell When the Group of Ema`s Yellow Breaks Ema 55
Take Benefit When Yellow Group Touches The Group Green.

If The Yellow group does Pull Back in Ema 55 or In Green Group Buy or sell again

Take Profit 10 Pip in Breaks Ema 55 And take Profit 5 pips In Pull Back

Stop loss 5 Pip 5 Minute Periods

The Good thing is Works with All periods and all the Currency

[sam123]

Arun.
I reinstalled all the indciators and now it's ok. It's seems very promising.
Now I am trying to install the signal script you made but I cant see it runs anywhere.
What's wrong?

[aroonraj]

Originally Posted by adimsh

Hi Aroon,
This will predict 3 values for the EMA at the same shift, allowing for more precise prediction if you average the values.


One more thing about FANN, I have a CLI fann tool written by me, running on Windows, if you are serious about using FANN tool, I can post the EXE here.
Regards,

Hi,

You may be right regarding the outputs. NeuroTrend was an initial trial to show that it is possible to create a leading indicator using Neural Networks.

I no more predict 3 future values but only one future EMA.

Thanks for the offer. Currently I am fine with JNNS and if in future decide to use FANN I can try your tool.

Thanks,
Arun

[aroonraj]

@sam123,

Its an expert and not a script file. Please run it in strategy tester. It should work fine.

@ALLLLLL,

Since I am involved in a couple of projects, I am not able to find time to actively contribute to this thread. I have decided to implement the design we have discussed once I am done with my projects (which includes also optimizing NeuroTrend and building a reliable system on it).

I would really appreciate if someone wants to go ahead and implement the discussed NN design. I have given the overall concept and all necessary files to device, train and use a neural network based indicator. I can give support in case of difficulties with NeuroTrend and also suggestions for new implementations based on my experience with NeroTrend and NN in general.

Best Wishes,
Arun

[Pegasus200]

Arun and All,

I have also been very busy with other projects and I won't be available for some time neither. The proposed system should be easy to try for someone who has coding experience.

I will get into it later (hopefully this year!!) for sure.

[sam123]

Originally Posted by aroonraj

@sam123,

Its an expert and not a script file. Please run it in strategy tester. It should work fine.

Arun

Hi Arun,
I wish to see you soon here again.
I ran the file on the strategy tester as you wrote but I could not see any results. What did I do wrong?