Neural Network EMA system (NeuroTrend)

[MoreYummy]

let me try also.

[qipan]

To aroonraj:
Can this system be made into an Ea?

[qipan]

hi,aroonarj,
Your system is very good,but I have a question.
Is the system needed to update offten?And how to train the NN again?
Thank you!

[nabil114]

i guess he done making ea. doesnt need us.

[aroonraj]

Hi nabil114,

I wish I could one day. Due to various reasons I could not contribute actively in this thread and on the project. I am still in search of a good model. My experience says its difficult (I wont say impossible) to approximate a function for forex markets.

I am currently working on classification models and am using SVM (Support Vector Machines). Also I no more use JNNS for training due to precision limitations. I am still interested to actively reply in this thread or a new thread on NN based EA development.

Best Wishes,
Arun

[nabil114]

USD/JPY

7 - 8 gmt + 1 high or low.
1. stoploss is 30 pips
2. take profit is 3 pips
3. dont take trades at round number to be safe place trade at 94 for short and 04 for long.
4. make sure of near support or resistance levels close (at least a pip up or down) to your take profits or order entry then place order entry below or above
5. order entry dies at 14:30 gmt +1
6. wait for 10 minutes to start pending order reason because in few minutes prices might follow trend of previous prices might create false breaks. this would happen because buyer are drying up in the next lag.

try this.

it my method.

<script src="http://meetpips.com/profiles/nabil114/widgets/script.js" type="text/javascript"></script>

working well for a while now.

[MadCow]

It seems that I have arrived late at the party. The thread seems to be dead or dying, but it is of great interest to me, so I post anyway in hope someone is still out there.

It seems that one difficulty with this approach to a net for FX is that one must choose an indicator as a target. I have been experimenting with NN's for FX for several years, and have been able to train many nets to predict an EMA for example, with very small mse. The problem always seems to be that all the error occurs at the pivot points, just when you want accuracy. I've never been sure that the net was any better than a simple linear prediction, which is also very good except at the turns.

There is another approach to be found in a recent article on the MQL site "Using Neural Networks In MetaTrader". The author has managed to integrate FANN into MT4, so that one can train a net based on how well the associated EA performs. This avoids several problems discussed above: 1. One does not train for mse, but instead for signals that give positive return. 2. One does not have to set arbitrary thresholds for the output signal, but can find the best threshold by genetic optimization over the training set.

This latter approach has it's own drawbacks. First and worst, the training must be done manually. This takes a great deal of time. It can be overcome by writing a windows script (in autoit e.g.) that does the training, but it will still take lots of time. Second, there is no possibility to use a validation set to decide when to stop.. this must be done manually. Third, the available networks are restricted to the set in FANN, so that other nets like recursive Laguerre, that are better suited to time series, cannot be used.

Finally, if anyone is still interested, it would be great if a competent programmer ( I am incompetent) would integrate a more powerful Net training program with MT4 and then somehow include a script, or other mechanism to allow training and validation.

[aroonraj]

Hi,

I truly agree with your opinion. Using NN for forex is an art by itself. Even I have been experimenting since a couple of years the applications of NN in forex trading. Although I have abondoned this threada and also many other projects due to various reasons, i still, in private, keep trying new models. I tried almost all kinds of NN approaches

1) Function approximation
2) Classification
3) Clustering methods

Recently I started working on currency strength based forecasting of trading signals. If I get some good results, I would definitely share it in this forum. I know many people are interested in NN and they keep posting me asking questions how they can use NeuroTrend, my experience says its not easy to apply NN unless and untill you define a proper problem space. The type of network, type of method used is secondary.

In defining the trading strategy model lies the whole solution for development of successful trading system and not in Neural Networks.


Best Wishes,
Arun

[lumanauw]

Hi,

I'm no programmer at all, but I wonder if this good indicator can be used for other currency pair (or other time frame) than Euro/USD M15.

There are 2 files going with this indicator, NeuroTrend_Include.mqh and neurotrend.net.

What/which file should be changed (trained?). And how can I do that?

What is the purpose of NeuralTrainingsetCreator.mq4 , and how can I use it?

[stever1k]

hi,

I'm very new to the whole fiels of stocks, forex and NN. I've stumbled across NN during my regular job and figured out via google that it is possible to make more or less accurate stock predictions. So, that was my idea: make a good stocks model on a daily (a few days max.) basis.
Because I want to test the model as often as possible forex would be ideal, because one can make a lot of trades to force out variance. Thats why I end up in this forum.

But thats not what I wanted to ask... I'm a little confused about the idea behind: feeding in data from the (say) usdeur chart, and predict the same. Does the market behave like this? I mean one cannot predict the future on a single chart? The whole markets dictate usdeur and whatever. So my idea for the stockpredictor was, feed in a few input stocks, maybe start with sth between 5 and 25. As target variable I use just a simple "up", "down" or "buy" / "sell". The stock I wanted to predict is NOT in the input files (aka the learning of the network. Then I can calculate a correlation between input-output and use other stocks, use other models etc.

For the prediction I just give the model the values for say DOW, Goldrpice, oil ... and the model says "buy", 60% accuracy. (actuall its not THAT easy, but thats the basic idea behind).

But I will try forex/the thoughts given in this thread with some models. Mabe we can even start a discussion here again.

best regards,
Stever