Elliott Wave

[dlynch82]

Well we will know soon enough if my wave count is correct. we are in a wave 4 correction and we are about to finish wave b if I am correct will end at 238.40-45 and continue down to 235.70-80 to finish wave c. We'll see.

[dlynch82]

And of course I missed my entry point of 238.40 by a measly 2 pips before a 100+ drop. Story of my life.

[dlynch82]

Now the fact that the GY pair reversed at the 238.40 lvl further supports my wave 4 end at 235.70-80. In the current wave 4 we saw wave A down a max of 264 pips then wave b up to just about the .618 ret. of wave A. Now if wave C = wave A then we are looking at a wave C(Also wave 4 end) at 235.76. So we now have two "fingers" pointing to a wave 4 end at 235.70-80.

[phams0]

hey...
this baby is going down!!!! Good job with the analysis...
I still have a hard time understanding some of your analysis...i think chart or 2 will definately help...i really want to figure out how u calculated tp to 235.70-80... usually...i just used the fib retracement tool and set tp at nearest fib retracement... if it passes the first fib line, i open another position and tp and next line..etc...
Good Job, keep up the good work

[dlynch82]

Well this bad boy dropped more than I had anticipated down to 235.20 or so. But I figured the TP of 235.70-80 because in a correction the wave theory says that waves A and C "TEND" to lean towards equality. So Wave A was 264 pips and 264 pip down from the top of wave B ended at 235.76. Now last night we saw it drop actually more than that which sometimes wave C will drop more that wave A and it will drop by one of the fib lvl's. Example: wave A dropped 100 pips then wave C will drop either 100+- a pip or two or it will drop by 1.618 times wave A(162 pips) or 2 times wave A(200) or 2.618 times wave A. We'll see. I sure hope so because I am long again. I am still working on getting charts on here.

And I hope you made some pips last night because I missed my entry by 2 pip just before a 300+ pip drop. Theres always tomorrow.

[topgun]

I have been trying to learn about Elliotts wave from the below website and after reading the reviews of the book on Amazon, it turns out that one of the author owns the website . His website offers FREE videos and a hugh course on Elliots Wave. Thanks for the book reference and for starting a thread about it. I will have to follow it closely even though I will not be able to contribute to it much since I am a total EW amateur.

Topgun

Elliott Wave International - Expert Financial Market Forecasting

[dlynch82]

Hey Topgun, If you get that book I recommended (It was about $20+- from Amazon) you will be contributing in no time, I swear by this book.

Also if you want to see a textbook real life recent Elliott wave example check out the EUR/GBP daily chart. This wave pattern is as text book as I have ever seen. The pattern starts on 1/23/07. It has waves 1,2,3,4 and also a perfect example of an extended 5th wave. It also has darn near perfect symmetry with waves 2 & 4 (2 pip difference). That pair is now looking at a correction which is in a wave C I believe.

[dlynch82]

Ok, Back to GBP/JPY. It looks like we are now on our way up with wave 5 of the extended wave 3. Assuming that wave 5 is = wave 1 we are looking at a wave 5 target of 241.47 but I would trail stop any profits once we get above the old wave 3 high of 239.41 because wave 5 can really end anywhere it feels like ending but seeing as how this is a wave 5 of an extended wave 3 I doubt the wave 5 will underperform.

[dlynch82]

It looks like the wave C of the recent GBP/JPY correction dropped down to the 1.618 fib projection lvl drawn down from the begining of wave A



P.S I think this will be the best charting I will be able to post. I only have the forex.com charting. I am working on getting esignal though. Then I will be able to put up some charts.

[dlynch82]

Another possible wave count for GBP/JPY is on the link below. This count implies that GBP/JPY is in a larger degree correction and we may be looking at a wave B top and a possible wave C down below the 221 handle. Only time will tell. We will know which count is correct if the pair rises above the 239.41 and even more so if it rises above the old high of 241.49. If these lvl's are broken we are no longer in a correction and we are definitely in impulse mode.

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