I am a novice Elliottician and I just wanted to start a new thread to see if I could get a few other people who are interested in elliott wave to put our heads together and make some PIPS!! I like to follow the GBP/$ and the $/JPY as well as the product of the two the GBP/JPY. Here are my latest elliott Wave counts and projections.
The Elliott wave situation in gbp/jpy as well as gbp/$ it is still pointing higher. In gbp/$ I am seeing the 2.0240-50 area as being the end of the 5 wave impulse of the uptrend starting on 3/6/07 and that same 2.0240-50 area looks to be the end of a Major 5 wave system that started on 6/29/06. The minor wave 5 end will be 2.618 fibonacci proj. of wave 1 = (251 pips)1.9589 + (2.618 * 251)= 2.0246. Now for the major wave 5. The wave series started at 1.8088 on 6/29/06 if wave 1 = wave 5 will fall at 2.0240. Wave 1 started at 1.8088 and wave 1 = 1056 pips 1.8088 + 1056 = 2.0240.
As for gbp/jpy I still believe it will go to somewhere in the neighborhood of 240.00-241.00 before the 4th wave of wave 3 sets in. It should be a bear as a lot of 4th waves are.
Now there may be some minor corrections in the trek up to these lvl’s but I believe this is where we are headed.
The chart below is a 4hr GBP/$ chart showing the 5 waves up to our current lvl’s.
Hi dlynch82
I’m a newbie when it comes to forex and Elliott Waves. I have been trading demo for a couple months now and usually trade the GBPUSD and GBPJPY pairs.
I was just wondering how you got the numbers…
2.618 fibonacci proj. and 251 pips
Well I got the 251 pips from the length of wave 1(1.9182 up to 1.9433)starting on 3/5/07 - 3/12/07.
As for the 2.618, the 5th wave or an impulse tends to be either the same ± as wave 1 or it will tend to end at or near one of the fibanocci lvl’s (.618, 1.618, 2, 2.618). In this case it looks like it will be 2.618 times the distance of wave 1 as it has already surpassed the other fib lvl’s. Also the more significant lvl’s you find pointing to one price target the stronger that price target becomes. There will be some small corrections before we get to these lvl’s so don’t jump the gun.
Also if you like trading the GBP/$ you should take a look at the GBP/JPY. It is like the gbp/$ but it has a lot more volatility to it. It is simply the price of the GBP/$ X $/JPY GBP/JPY= (2.0084 X 118.64) 238.27 at the moment. I guess it is a gift and a curse that it is so volatile. There is a good book for Elliott Wave that I read it is Elliott Wave Theory "Frost & Prechter by Charles Collins. It’s a great book and breaks it down very well.
GU
I’ve tried to measure the fib extension for wave 1 from 1,9185 to 1,9433.
On my chart 261,8 fib level is at 1,9835. It looks to me that we might be going for the next 423,6 level which shows 2,0236. It is pretty close to your measurments. Let us see if this would work out!
GY
When I measure wave 1 from 221,080 to 229,70 I can see that we have just
passed the 200,0 fib extension at 238,32. The next 261,8 fib level is at
243,65. At least on my chart.
It would be interesting to tell us a bit more about your wave counts. It is crucial for the entries and the exits. Because it normally takes some time while the price reaches the diferent levels.
I wasn’t talking fib extention for the GU pair. I was just sayin that it may be 2.618 times the length of wave 1. 251 X 2.618 = 657 + 1.9589 = 2.0246.
As for the GY I didn’t say it also was going to be the 2.618 fib lvl just like the GU. The GY is in a different wave situation all together. It looks like we are in an extended 3rd wave at the moment. A wave 3 of III actually so an ugly wave 4 may be just around the corner. We’ll see.
thanks for clearing things up. I think i will take a look at that book.
I was also wondering about the wave formation of GBPJPY…
On my charts i think i see 5 waves not 3…
wave 1: march5 - march11
wave 2: march11 - march12 (retrace to 0.618)
wave 3: march12 - march25
wave 4: march 25 - march 26 (retrace to 0.382)
wave 5: march 26 - ??
hehe…however I hope you are correct about it being in the 3rd wave…so I can cash in on some interest on 5th wave
I think the wave that you are thinking is wave 3 and 4 is actually the begining of an extended wave 3. So we have so far a wave 1 with a .618 ret. wave 2 and actually an extended wave 1 of wave III then the wave 2 of III and we are working on wave 3 of III which may be coming to an end soon if not already(a little short of my 240-241 prediction) buy hey this isn’t exact science. . I’m still working on figuring out how to get the pics of charts on here with my notations on them to help with my sometimes confusing writings.
Also if anyone has anything to add or if you don’t agree with my wave counts please add to the thread this is why I created it. I don’t know it all and I’ll be the first to tell you I don’t. So the more people we get the better off we are at coming up with the “right” counts.
Ok, I just checked out the GBP/JPY wave count and this is what I come up with.
We are in an extended wave 3 of an extended wave III and we are half way done wave 4 of the extention. I believe we will see 235.70-80 in the next day or two before we move on to wave 5 high. The 5 wave series I am reffering to started on 3/28 @228.77. and wave 2 retraced only a small % of wave 1 and was long and drawn out so I am thinking wave 4 will retrace at least 61.8% and be pretty straight forward. Trendlines also support the 235.70-80 lvl to end wave 4 of this extension.
Well we will know soon enough if my wave count is correct. we are in a wave 4 correction and we are about to finish wave b if I am correct will end at 238.40-45 and continue down to 235.70-80 to finish wave c. We’ll see.
Now the fact that the GY pair reversed at the 238.40 lvl further supports my wave 4 end at 235.70-80. In the current wave 4 we saw wave A down a max of 264 pips then wave b up to just about the .618 ret. of wave A. Now if wave C = wave A then we are looking at a wave C(Also wave 4 end) at 235.76. So we now have two “fingers” pointing to a wave 4 end at 235.70-80.
hey…
this baby is going down!!! Good job with the analysis…
I still have a hard time understanding some of your analysis…i think chart or 2 will definately help…i really want to figure out how u calculated tp to 235.70-80… usually…i just used the fib retracement tool and set tp at nearest fib retracement… if it passes the first fib line, i open another position and tp and next line…etc…
Good Job, keep up the good work
Well this bad boy dropped more than I had anticipated down to 235.20 or so. But I figured the TP of 235.70-80 because in a correction the wave theory says that waves A and C “TEND” to lean towards equality. So Wave A was 264 pips and 264 pip down from the top of wave B ended at 235.76. Now last night we saw it drop actually more than that which sometimes wave C will drop more that wave A and it will drop by one of the fib lvl’s. Example: wave A dropped 100 pips then wave C will drop either 100± a pip or two or it will drop by 1.618 times wave A(162 pips) or 2 times wave A(200) or 2.618 times wave A. We’ll see. I sure hope so because I am long again. I am still working on getting charts on here.
And I hope you made some pips last night because I missed my entry by 2 pip just before a 300+ pip drop. Theres always tomorrow.
I have been trying to learn about Elliotts wave from the below website and after reading the reviews of the book on Amazon, it turns out that one of the author owns the website . His website offers FREE videos and a hugh course on Elliots Wave. Thanks for the book reference and for starting a thread about it. I will have to follow it closely even though I will not be able to contribute to it much since I am a total EW amateur.
Hey Topgun, If you get that book I recommended (It was about $20± from Amazon) you will be contributing in no time, I swear by this book.
Also if you want to see a textbook real life recent Elliott wave example check out the EUR/GBP daily chart. This wave pattern is as text book as I have ever seen. The pattern starts on 1/23/07. It has waves 1,2,3,4 and also a perfect example of an extended 5th wave. It also has darn near perfect symmetry with waves 2 & 4 (2 pip difference). That pair is now looking at a correction which is in a wave C I believe.
Ok, Back to GBP/JPY. It looks like we are now on our way up with wave 5 of the extended wave 3. Assuming that wave 5 is = wave 1 we are looking at a wave 5 target of 241.47 but I would trail stop any profits once we get above the old wave 3 high of 239.41 because wave 5 can really end anywhere it feels like ending but seeing as how this is a wave 5 of an extended wave 3 I doubt the wave 5 will underperform.
It looks like the wave C of the recent GBP/JPY correction dropped down to the 1.618 fib projection lvl drawn down from the begining of wave A
P.S I think this will be the best charting I will be able to post. I only have the forex.com charting. I am working on getting esignal though. Then I will be able to put up some charts.
Another possible wave count for GBP/JPY is on the link below. This count implies that GBP/JPY is in a larger degree correction and we may be looking at a wave B top and a possible wave C down below the 221 handle. Only time will tell. We will know which count is correct if the pair rises above the 239.41 and even more so if it rises above the old high of 241.49. If these lvl’s are broken we are no longer in a correction and we are definitely in impulse mode.
. His website offers FREE videos and a hugh course on Elliots Wave. Thanks for the book reference and for starting a thread about it. I will have to follow it closely even though I will not be able to contribute to it much since I am a total EW amateur.