Does anyone know of a very good resource (preferably free) for learning a fairly reliable swing trade system that is focused on mainly (or solely) price action / order flow?
I've spent the last week voraciously reading everything I could about Forex trading and watching webinars. It seems most of the "successful" traders can be broken into 4 groups as far as what the focus (primary technique) of their system is:
1) Tech Analysis using Oscillating and Momentum (Moving Average) Indicators
2) News Events
3) Elliott Waves / Fibonacci
4) Price Action / Order Flow
Of the 4 methods, it seems those who use method 3 and 4, pretty much disregard the others. Identifying the waves is an art that is not easy to learn though, but supposedly those that are good at it are producing consistent success.
Methods 3 and 4 seem to me basically analyzing the effects that are created when large instiutions employ methods 1 and 2 when making trade decisions that move the market. I'm a newbie, this is just an early hypothesis for me.
My point is at this early stage, being a systems analyst by trade (not in the financial sector) based on all the information I've reviewed I feel like I am headed to the following two major conclusions:
1) It all boils down to price action / order flow - just ride the coat tails of the big boys - let them do all the 'thinking' about where the market is headed for you. The papers I read and webinars I watched that sounded the most, well, plausible, or intelligent, were from the pros discussing price action and order flow. What they said made perfect sense. The challenge to this method is that is has the least amount of direct correlating data because us retail guys don't have access to volume information beyond our own brokerage.
2) The other methods are for those that want to feel more 'in control' or 'smart' about having a system that is their own. Price Action or Waves/Fibo is just to mechanical for these types of traders.
Now I could be very well wrong, but I've decided of all the basic types of systems, I want to try the one I think is the most promising first.
Any referrals to good reference information for swing trading based on price action / order flow is greatly appreciated.