It doesn’t matter which timeframe or periods. Crossover systems do pretty well in some markets but then completely fail in others. This is because some trends have larger up and down moves (more choppy) than others so for some the crossover signifies oversold/overbought while for other less choppy trends the crossover signifies reversal. I think the edge of this system is very small if any because of the fixed period settings. Maybe if some master programmer can develop a scanner that adapts the periods and the stop losses/take profits according to the choppiness of the last trend, then perhaps we have an edge.
Hi guys,
Sorry to ask what may seem like a blindingly obvious question, but I am a beginner after all…
Is entry upon the close of the crossover candle? providing the other conditions are met also? IE: do you enter as the crossover and other conditions are met or upon the close? I ask because when I am forward testing this on a demo sometimes the EMA’s will cross and then revert quickly back on the 1hr chart, do we wait for the close as confirmation?
Thanks in advance
They will.
And here you’ve highlighted one of the characteristics of moving averages calculated from the close: until you’ve actually [U]had[/U] a close, by definition they can “repaint”. So, strictly speaking, although there are of course times that you can guess with a very high chance of being right, you don’t actually [I][U]know[/U][/I] they’ve crossed until the candle’s closed.
I’m sorry to hear it, in a way (though I concede that there’ll doubtless be some educational value in doing so, and analysing [I]why[/I] it doesn’t and can’t work).
For a wide variety of reasons to do with how moving averages work and what they display, their crossovers are an extremely misguided parameter on which to base [I]trade entries[/I]. As countless independent, objective research studies have confirmed very repeatedly, they have absolutely [U]no[/U] predictive value of short-term price direction at all - and they can’t have. If you read the [U]whole[/U] thread [I]carefully[/I], and especially the posts in which longstanding, respected members give their comments about it, I think you’ll catch the flavour of why it’s basically nonsense. At least, I hope you will.
Learning from forums is very difficult, when you have no experience, because the time at which you have no experience (i.e. when you’re starting out) is exactly when it’s hardest to decide “by whom to be guided”, not knowing who the people are.
In the long run, if you like reading forums and getting ideas that way (rather than from reading established, accredited, peer-reviewed, authoritative textbooks published by mainstream, orthodox, respected publishers), learning “whom to trust” and “by whom to be guided” is probably [B][U]the single most important[/U][/B] skill-set to develop. But that isn’t always easy.
[I][U]The thing to be most aware of[/U][/I] is that in a field of endeavour in which something like 95%-98% of participants (depending on whose figures you believe) never actually achieve any success worth talking about, the “general consensus of opinion” is always far more likely to be misguided than realistic. You can see the logic, there, I should think? “Internet information” isn’t subject to any realistic quality control.
Sorry, I know it’s not what you wanted to hear at all. :8:
Unfortunately, though, it happens to be true.
And welcome to the forum. 
Thanks for your in-depth reply lexys, Ill take a minute to respond to some of the points.
As I said I am a beginner with less than 6 months experience and was just looking on the forum for a simple strategy to follow basically. I appreciate your comments in regards to being cautious as to what advice etc Im led by.
Could you point me in the right direction for some quality reading material? (I love reading in general) Ive just graduated from university so Im fairly accustomed to studying from textbooks ha. I am lucky enough to have the luxury of free time to commit to learning about forex
appreciate your reply
Hi Dan,
I hear you. What’s in this thread isn’t one. Well … it’s a simple strategy, I suppose, but definitely not one to follow.
[I]Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom[/I] by Van K. Tharp is excellent (in spite of its unpleasantly sensationalised title), and you might find a PDF copy of it online, if you look around. It kind of explains “how to find/create a simple strategy to follow”. I can’t recommend his later books.
[I]Beyond Technical Analysis[/I] by Tushar S. Chande is also very good.
For an introduction to the underlying statistics/probability stuff with which all profitable traders need to acquire some familiarity, one way or another, I recommend Michael Harris’s [I]Profitability & Systematic Trading[/I] (Wiley, 2007 - but there could also be a PDF version of this one about, I think - and I think someone here, maybe Bobbillbrowne, has even posted a link to it, somewhere, not so long ago, but I don’t promise to have remembered this right!).
Like many people making our livings this way, my own trading became steadily profitable when I abandoned indicators and learned how to trade from “price action”. The authors I found most useful for this were Bob Volman and Al Brooks. (Al Brooks’ set of three textbooks is badly written and edited, and pretty difficult to plough through, but their content’s [I]excellent[/I], so those are a kind of “mixed recommendation”: his online course is much, much better and more helpful and more approachable, but it’s also much more expensive). I also found several older books by Joe Ross very helpful indeed, but they’re also expensive and maybe not even so easy to find.
Me too - and for the last time (after 5 years as a very part-time research student). Congratulations. 
Congratulations to you too! and thankyou once again, I will take a look at these 100%
Thanks for everyone on this thread, read the vast bulk and it is a great little system. I managed to find an indicator to help out with the signals so I don’t have to watch the screens all day. Its pretty useful
Hi, could you tell me the latest update for this system as well as the indicator you use? The system keeps on changing rapidly and I don’t know where to find the most recent one so I’m a bit confused. Thank you very much.
Not sure the OP is still trading this system. Systems tend not to remain the same over time as they need changing to suit different trading environments.
Far better to create your own.
hi can anyone tell me is this system still been used it looks good is there any updates
to the system
thanks
hiya,
could you tell me what indicators do you use and what is your setup and indicator parameters? how to you setup your first indicator with what parameters to reached that diagram?
Thnx
1 Like
Hi Wibie_G,
In post 608, you wrote, [quote=“Wibie_G, post:629, topic:19403”]
So far, my plan has produced around 75% winning rate.
[/quote]
Great! Glad you found a good plan!
Would you be so kind as to tell me where in the thread your plan is described, or else outline it with trading pair, time frame, entry (if different from standard approach), stop loss and take profit? I would be very thankful!
Thank you,
Norm
Hello,
I’ve read most of the thread, and I’m quite intrigued by this system. I’ve yet to test it, but I’ve also found the research made by Robopips and the results were not bad at all. Is there someone who is trading this live after all these years?
If you all are interested in moving average crossover systems, I recommend checking out:
- Robopips’ SMA Crossover Pullback System
- Pip Surfer’s Cowabunga System
You can follow their posts as they trade their systems day-to-day.
3 Likes
One method of sizing a trailing stop is by measuring recent retracements and making the TS larger than the largest. That way, the price move is likely to survive a number of retracements. This method is espoused by John Barrett, here: How to use Trailing Stop-loss?
Happy trading,
Norm
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RSI (10 - Apply to Median Price: HL/2) – One level at 50.
Please excuse my newbie ignorance but this "Apply to Median Price :HL/2 --One level at 50 has me confused. No problem with RSI 10 or other indicators but …Yes I know it’s simple, but only if one has experience. Thanks in advance
The setting for the RSI is 10 periods (of whatever TF you are using).
RSI is an indicator that moves within a range of 0 and 100 (%). Its standard settings usually include pre-drawn horizontal levels at 30 and 70 (or 20 and 80). The idea being that when the line passes above 70 then price is overbought and below 30, oversold - in other words reaching extreme levels where a pull-back is likely.
But in this system the only line drawn (or needed) on the RSI is a horizontal line at the 50% level. This is used as a confirmation whether the price is moving into positive or negative territory and should be considered in conjunction with the crossover of the MA’s. I.e, the crossover is the primary signal and then the RSI level is used to validate the signal, (the secondary signal).
If the MA crossover occurs without a confirming RSI cross through this 50% level, then the MA signal is considered to possibly be false and suggests caution.
Example:
Thank you Manxx.
My problem is inputting the 100…50…0 settings on the IG Demo platform
I am not familiar with the IG platform but the 0 and 100 lines should be there by default since these are the extreme values for RSI.
I would guess that in the parameters box for your RSI indicator there is box for the 70 and 30 lines that you can adjust. You can set these both to 50 (or if it won’t accept the same value for both, then input, for example, 51 and 49)
You can also draw a normal horizontal line over the RSI window with the value of 50.
For example, my platform’s parameter box looks like this:
Thanks for your help Maxx, but it looks like the RSI is set @ 70…30 on IG platform. (ALL)
I will try to sort it with them as this thread is running a long time and the system seems to be a winner?
Am I correct?