Sunday Breakout Strategy

[phil838]

Originally Posted by mumpips

Hi SanMiguel, thanks for the reply. I am rather slow on this, need more time to understand. The confused part is when everyone is talking abt limit order for this system, I need to put stop order for the pending orders.

Ok.....my brain is not working properly.......give me more time to understand this.

A lot of people use the terms "pending order" or "limit order" for any type of order that's set to trigger in the future, even though it may not technically be a limit order.

It's the same logic as using the word "car" for any type of vehicle. Just because someone says "There was a 3 car pileup on the highway" doesn't really mean they were cars... It could have been a truck, van, etc...

[cprao]

Originally Posted by phil838

You almost got it! Your thought process about the time is correct but your time zone calculations are off by 1 hour. I'm in Arkansas and my IBFX Sunday candle closes at 7pm, so you should be two hours behind me and have it close at 5pm.



Correct, except you don't automatically cancel the other order. Sometime one trade will be hit and end up reversing and getting stopped out, and then the other trade will trigger and end up being a winner. But then again, sometimes both trades will end up getting stopped out.

I only cancel the second trade if the first one goes up a significant amount. People keep asking what that amount is, and I really need to figure out an exact number for it, but to tell the true I just judge it on a case-by-case basis. Here's how I explained it to Mumpips earlier this week...

Thank you for the correction. I just looked at the weekly ATR now and it is showing as 0.0510. It means I should be considering 255 as Profit target.
I understand that Weekly ATR on Sunday will be differrent than what I see now.

Enjoy your vacation..

[phil838]

Originally Posted by cprao

Thank you for the correction. I just looked at the weekly ATR now and it is showing as 0.0510. It means I should be considering 255 as Profit target.

Yep, that's right.

[mumpips]

Originally Posted by phil838

A lot of people use the terms "pending order" or "limit order" for any type of order that's set to trigger in the future, even though it may not technically be a limit order.

It's the same logic as using the word "car" for any type of vehicle. Just because someone says "There was a 3 car pileup on the highway" doesn't really mean they were cars... It could have been a truck, van, etc...

Hi Phil,

Thanks for the explanation. It make more sense to simple person like me

[MattW2009]

Phil,

A very interesting strategy however the win/loss ratio is scary for me. As you know I'm down to virtually nil on my account and a string of losses would end it all so I'm thinking about a change to the 'rules' of the system that would produce more wins, although ultimately reduce profitability - thus making it a more conservative and 'safe' system.

How about exiting the trade at 2R?

Do you think this would produce more (smaller) wins? Would it have produced some winning trades in the Feb-March losing streak?
Are you able to back-test this a bit? Like some others my 4hour charts only go back 3 months.

Matt

[o990l6mh]

Originally Posted by MattW2009

Phil,

A very interesting strategy however the win/loss ratio is scary for me. As you know I'm down to virtually nil on my account and a string of losses would end it all so I'm thinking about a change to the 'rules' of the system that would produce more wins, although ultimately reduce profitability - thus making it a more conservative and 'safe' system.

How about exiting the trade at 2R?

Do you think this would produce more (smaller) wins? Would it have produced some winning trades in the Feb-March losing streak?
Are you able to back-test this a bit? Like some others my 4hour charts only go back 3 months.

Matt

Simple solution. Just download an Alpari demo and through history center get the data you need. Voila - you can do the backtesting yourself.

Another piece of advice - don't let previous losses have an adverse effect on how you trade. It's better to either stop for a while, or to do a complete mental restart, wipe the slate clean.

[ddurrant]

I'm going to look at your sunday trad and thanks. I have 2 months to try and help my son get money together to pay for his religious mission.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by MattW2009

Phil,

A very interesting strategy however the win/loss ratio is scary for me. As you know I'm down to virtually nil on my account and a string of losses would end it all so I'm thinking about a change to the 'rules' of the system that would produce more wins, although ultimately reduce profitability - thus making it a more conservative and 'safe' system.

How about exiting the trade at 2R?

Do you think this would produce more (smaller) wins? Would it have produced some winning trades in the Feb-March losing streak?
Are you able to back-test this a bit? Like some others my 4hour charts only go back 3 months.

Matt

Matt,

Who are you using for a broker? If you have a good broker account size shouldn't matter. If your account is small go with a broker that lets you trade fractional lot sizes, like Oanda or IBFX. Either one of those would still allow you to trade with good MM even if you only had $20 or so in your account!

I don't have data to back it up, but based on my experience I don't think taking profit at 2R would end up being profitable. You'd probably end up losing money in the long run. This method is based on pure statistics and probability, not any type of real technical analysis, so you need the big wins to make it profitable.

I'd hold off trading it if your broker/account size won't let you trade it safely.

I'll do some backtests on it next week, but I'm leaving for vacation in a few hours and don't have time right now.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by ddurrant

I'm going to look at your sunday trad and thanks. I have 2 months to try and help my son get money together to pay for his religious mission.

Ddurrant,

Be careful if you're wanting to make short-term money with this method. I can almost guarantee good results over 6 months or more, but it's very possible you could lose some money if you're only trading this for 2 months.

[MattW2009]

Originally Posted by o990l6mh

Simple solution. Just download an Alpari demo and through history center get the data you need. Voila - you can do the backtesting yourself.

Phil said

Originally Posted by Phil

Alpari demo accounts will scroll back to 1999 on any timeframe, but they don't have Sunday data on their charts

I've scrolled back through my 3 months of data and had a positive result.
Every BE and winner on Phil's rules would produce a winner, every loser would likewise be a loser. At 1:2 Risk to Reward I would imagine it would prove profitable over a longer time period