Sunday Breakout Strategy

[weijen]

i guess the more sunday data you use, generally the longer the candle, and the lower your risk reward. if we go for a 200 pip TP, and a SL of 50, we have 4x if we hit the TP, but with SL of 40, we can have 5x. So over time, it adds up quite a lot.

but the low win ratio is a bit worrisome, since we all need to wait for the jackpot if/when it comes....i'll keep trying on my data feed for next few weeks/months and step back to make an assessment then...

Originally Posted by nutrader

MatW2009

does your broker have priced data from 8pm gmt on sunday as opposed to 10 pm used by phil838 which was the basis of all his backtesting, my broker which is ig markets has the extra 2 hours of price data on sundays which have consistently given me different sunday candles from phil, but i have been using phil's figures for the sunday breakout trades because these are the figures which have been thoroughly backtested.

despite this i have noticed on a few occaisons now that i would of been better off using my own feed, today being a good example

I would be very interested if you or anyone is able to backtest with with the 4 hours of sunday data to see what results we get

Until it is backtested though, i would be cautious about trading with the extra data as that could affect the overal longterm performance of this strategy

[nika]

Originally Posted by phil838

Hi guys! This system has been very profitable for me so I thought I'd share it.

I've traded this live since late 2008, and I've also backtested it manually from Oct. 2004 (as far back as my charts go) to the present day and it has remained profitable all 5 years!!


The Sunday Breakout Strategy

Pair: GBP/USD
Timeframe: 4 hour
Indicators: An ATR(14) on the WEEKLY chart, or use the attached indicator on your 4H chart.

Your broker's charts MUST include the Sunday 20:00GMT candle for this system to work. Some broker's don't put this candle on their charts so make sure yours does! If not use an IBFX demo account, they include the Sunday candle and the demo never expires.

Find the Sunday candle:
- On a 4H chart find the high and low of the Sunday candle. If you're backtesting and using MetaTrader turn on the Period Seperator to make finding it easier. Draw a line 10 pips above the high and 10 pips below the low.


Entry:
- Go long on upper break of the line.
- Go short on lower break of the line.

SL:
- For long trades the SL is the Sunday candle low.
- For short trades the SL is the Sunday candle high.
- Set SL to break even once your profit has reached 2x your stoploss.

TP:
- Your TP is ½ of the weekly ATR(14).

That's it! A simple system that only takes 10 minutes per week to manage!!

I've gotten 1448 pips using the strategy since I started, and backtesting shows a gain of 7907 pips since Oct. 2004. If you actively manage your trades with some S+R lines, trendlines, and price action you could probably make a lot more than that! I've included an excel file with my backtesting results and money management projections.

Also attached is an indicator to show you the weekly ATR(14). Just remember your profit target is HALF that number.






EDIT: s050399b has made an excellent indicator for this system that computes all the entries, stoplosses, etc. You can find the latest version on this post.

Hi guys,
first of all i'd like to say "Phil thank you for sharing your strategy". For new traders like me it's very helpful.
I have a question - by " Find the Sunday candle" does Phil mean the one that has formed at exactly 20:00 GMT, cos we all know that there is more than one sunday candle?

thank you very much

[MattW2009]

Originally Posted by nika

Hi guys,
first of all i'd like to say "Phil thank you for sharing your strategy". For new traders like me it's very helpful.
I have a question - by " Find the Sunday candle" does Phil mean the one that has formed at exactly 20:00 GMT, cos we all know that there is more than one sunday candle?

thank you very much

Markets open at approximately 20:00 GMT so on the 4 hour charts (which is what we look at for these trades) there is only one candle.
It's kinda equivalent to saying the high from Sunday open to midnight and the low in the same period.

Some peoples charts show more data than others but that is the basic premise.

[kent123]

Ok Lets say I enter short and the trade goes against me, lets say the ADR is 600 and my target is 300 and lets say the first trade went in my direction 250 pips but then reversed. My question is would I still take the buy order since there is 350 of the ADR left. Please someone explain this in detail for me thank you.

[cprao]

Following are my entries on GBPUSD for this week 07/12.

Long:
Open : 1.6220
SL = 1.6176

Short = 1.6166
SL = 1.6210

Week ADR = 457, so the target profit is - 228

Stop loss is - 44 pips

4 HR candle reading on IBfax:
Open - 1.6177
Close - 1.6198
High = 1.6210
Low - 1.6176

[cprao]

Originally Posted by kent123

Ok Lets say I enter short and the trade goes against me, lets say the ADR is 600 and my target is 300 and lets say the first trade went in my direction 250 pips but then reversed. My question is would I still take the buy order since there is 350 of the ADR left. Please someone explain this in detail for me thank you.

I personally would not take since that looks risky and you almost got the profit you were looking for in that week.

But I am not sure what this strategy rule says ?

[Jack B PIP]

Thanks for posting. I was one pip different than yours

[mumpips]

Originally Posted by Jack B PIP

Thanks for posting. I was one pip different than yours

me too. 1 pip diff.

Happy trading to all

[cprao]

Originally Posted by Jack B PIP

Thanks for posting. I was one pip different than yours

Who knows that one pip can make you winner of this week.. All the best..

[orpips]

edit: never mind