Sunday Breakout Strategy

[phil838]

Originally Posted by mumpips

Hi Phil,

Can you explain further on this 1.6600 psych level? Is there any particular things we need to take note?

Thanks

A psychological (psych) level is just a nice round number that people tend to place a lot of stoploss or takeprofit orders at. They sometimes act as weak S+R lines.

I wouldn't be too concerned with it if you don't want to be. The records for this system are based on 100% mechanical entries and exits, some of us just like to mess around with more "advanced" stuff to try and up the profits a little bit.

Basically what Nutrader and I are saying is that cutting 11 pips off the profit target is a small price to pay in the event the price might want to reverse at 1.6600. He's going to drop his TP down, but I'm just going to watch it closely. Feel free to do either one of those, or hold out for the full amount... You'll be profitable in the long-run either way, one way will just end up being a few points more profitable.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by s050399b

btw, I have exited at the touching the trend point.

I don't blame you a bit! I'm going to hold out for the full amount though.

I wouldn't be surprised if the price reversed off that trendline and ended up closing for breakeven, but that doesn't bother me. This system is supposed to be low stress and watching the 1.6600 psych line is enought messing around for me!

I know it'll make money in the long-run so I'm not going to fret too much about it.

[sk0ll]

Hello,

I also have a question... If you have a position opened and still didnt hit target or sl by friday.. do you closet to start all over again? or do you keep it open.. even if you can have two positions opened??

Thanks!!

[orpips]

Honestly I'm less concerned with the trendline (esp. since uptrends are usually marked by a line along the lows, not the highs) and the round number than I am with the 76fib retracement point coming up at 1.6566. If you draw the fib from that high on June 30 you'll see that we've had big retracements from the 50 and 61 points, so it seems likely 76 will be similarly respected.

That said, this is a mechanical system and I'm just ignoring all that and letting the limit orders do their thing :P

[MattW2009]

Ok, I've done some back-testing on my data for a 2R strategy, starting from 27th April.
Taking the opposite, or second, trade is only done on a Monday. Id est all untriggered orders to open are cancelled at Monday night. Here are the results:

10 Wins, 10 Losses - 50% win rate
Total pips profit: 764
Total pips risk: 1462
PPD (pips per day): 11.75


I'll try and take a look at 3R later this week.

Matt

[s050399b]

Originally Posted by orpips

Honestly I'm less concerned with the trendline (esp. since uptrends are usually marked by a line along the lows, not the highs)

Oh? I always thought to draw along the highs and lows......hmmmmm, I need to re-read

[orpips]

It's not a set in stone rule. But generally speaking, uptrends have a line drawn following the higher lows, and downtrends have a line drawn following the lower highs. Usually marking both the highs and lows is defining a channel, or if they're converging, a wedge.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by sk0ll

Hello,

I also have a question... If you have a position opened and still didnt hit target or sl by friday.. do you closet to start all over again? or do you keep it open.. even if you can have two positions opened??

Thanks!!

If that ever happened I would close the trade out around noon GMT on Friday. It's never happened to me since I've been trading live, but I did encounter it once or twice in backtesting, so it is possible.

[Rei]

Well it looks like the long might be stopped at BE. Do we keep the pending short trade for this week? Im guessing we dont keep it because its getting late in the week and theres risk appetite in the fundamentals. Lets hope it rebounds to TP.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by Rei

Well it looks like the long might be stopped at BE. Do we keep the pending short trade for this week? Im guessing we dont keep it because its getting late in the week and theres risk appetite in the fundamentals. Lets hope it rebounds to TP.

I'm not going to enter the short trade if it hits. The amount of pips it went up and the day of the week are right in the middle of my enter/don't enter criteria, but the fact we're in a strong uptrend tips my decision over to "don't enter."