NickB's 4H Scalping Method

[ThePhoenix]

Question Phil. When you lay down S&R line and scalp lines, do you zoom out all the way on mt4?

I just did that and the scalp lines, and why they are scalp lines, that nickB posted last week were very obvious. It also made obvious what you said about 153.44. Man makes me wish I had one of those huge 50" monitors so I could have it zoomed out and detailed at the same time.

[tymen1]

This seems to be a popular thread at the moment because of its apparent simplicity.

So I thought I would jump on the bandwagon with the latest trading point.

It is 12.36 am here in Western Australia, that makes it 12.36 pm in New York and 5.36 pm in London (daylight saving).

Here is my latest analysis >>>



By tymen1 at 2009-06-04


After doing a bottom, then hitting a top, the price action went thro the bottom at 155.70 for a distance of 55 pips to 155.15
A 5 pip buffer delay would have brought in exactly 50 pips including spread.

That is just for now.

Latest look shows a slight retrace but I am sure the price action will continue to go down in the short term because the red candle marking the upper resistance line is a quality dark cloud cover pattern against its previous green candle.


However, I see that the price action in the long term is looking to go up again probably past the upper resistance line.




Why now, do you insist on trading only GBP/JPY in this way?

What is wrong with doing the majors in the same way??

[tymen1]

The 5 pip buffer is a good idea since it helps confirm the momentum in your favour.

The same principle is used in Keltner channel trading.

[pizal]

Originally Posted by tymen1

After doing a bottom, then hitting a top, the price action went thro the bottom at 155.70 for a distance of 55 pips to 155.15
A 5 pip buffer delay would have brought in exactly 50 pips including spread.

I also looked at this trade but wouldn't there have been a break around 10:12 am (New York) that would have gone for a loser?

My charts show a break to a low of 155.46 and then rallying up to 156.49.

I am a newbie but if I am doing the system right then a short of 155.70 would have resulted in a 50 pip loss and then invalidated the scalp line and when the market dove back down around 00:00 no trade would have been taken.

[ThePhoenix]

Originally Posted by tymen1

The 5 pip buffer is a good idea since it helps confirm the momentum in your favour.

The same principle is used in Keltner channel trading.

I've been using 7 myself. That is my brokers spread for GBP/JPY. That way the trade isn't entered until the bid line, which forms the visual for the candles, hits the line. Probably doesn't make a difference, but just makes more sense to me visually.

[lavaman]

Originally Posted by pizal

I also looked at this trade but wouldn't there have been a break around 10:12 am (New York) that would have gone for a loser?

My charts show a break to a low of 155.46 and then rallying up to 156.49.

I am a newbie but if I am doing the system right then a short of 155.70 would have resulted in a 50 pip loss and then invalidated the scalp line and when the market dove back down around 00:00 no trade would have been taken.

I had a low around 155.50, so I put in a sell order at 155.45. It was triggered and hit my stop for -50 all in the past hour or so while I was away from the computer. I think I was too eager to take a trade and chose to see a scalp line where there wasn't one. Patience...

[tymen1]

Originally Posted by ThePhoenix

I've been using 7 myself.

Ah yes!!

I forgot about the spread which you have to pay first.
For me its 6 pips in Dealbook.

To Pizal and Lavaman :

I am not exactly sure what your problems are here?

I posted the chart to show that the trade is very straightforward.

Enter at 155.70 and ride it down for 50 pips (+- 1/2 pips )

[tymen1]

This chart shows that the expectancy for the price action to rise is correct >>>



By tymen1 at 2009-06-04


My prediction is based on analysis of the famous Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) developed by Darryl Guppy, and Australian Master trader, who lectures all around the world.

The short term moving averages (blue) have taken a dip downwards.

However, the long term moving averages (red) have not changed direction nor have they changed their spacing character.

This indicates that the trade upward is sound and a stop loss placed below would be ignored.

The price action is expected to rebound and continue upwards, but more slowly since the red averages are not so steep anymore.

At last observation since this screen shot was taken, the price has risen to 156.19 with a top of 156.44

[lavaman]

Originally Posted by tymen1

Ah yes!!

I forgot about the spread which you have to pay first.
For me its 6 pips in Dealbook.

To Pizal and Lavaman :

I am not exactly sure what your problems are here?

I posted the chart to show that the trade is very straightforward.

Enter at 155.70 and ride it down for 50 pips (+- 1/2 pips )

Hey Tymen,

Your chart is at too high of a timeframe to show what really happened. Price passed 155.70 briefly before shooting up about 145 pips, so any kind of reasonable stop loss would have been taken out for sure. The only way to have made 50 pips with an entry at 155.70 would have been to have a stop loss over 145 pips away, or not use one at all (which I know you do not advocate ).

[pizal]

Originally Posted by tymen1

To Pizal and Lavaman :

I am not exactly sure what your problems are here?

I posted the chart to show that the trade is very straightforward.

Enter at 155.70 and ride it down for 50 pips (+- 1/2 pips )

I just thought that because the scalp line was broken earlier (around US news) and a loss was taken that the later trade you showed would not have been taken. Is that correct?