NickB's 4H Scalping Method

[orpips]

Originally Posted by cjgranfl

Matt,

What was your entry price for the short? Mine was not triggered. I have a big cushion on USD/CAD; 9 pips + half of the spread (I'm on Oanda, so the average of bid and ask is graphed). This pair has a tendency to poke beyond scalp lines pretty frequently.

Cody

Just FYI -- if you go to Add Study in Oanda's platform, and turn on High/Low Bid/Ask (all four), then when you mouseover a bar it will show all that info in the upper left corner. In other words, if you're setting a long order, you can see what the High Ask was for the candle you're basing the scalp on rather than trying to guess at spread and all that.

[cjgranfl]

Orpips,

That's right, I remember you mentioning that in MH's blog a while back and I completely forgot about it. Thanks for the reminder.

Cody

[SanMiguel]

156.70 - scalp line or not? A bit weak
155.93 - ? bit stronger but not ideal
154.06 - strong

[phil838]

Originally Posted by SanMiguel

156.70 - scalp line or not? A bit weak
155.93 - ? bit stronger but not ideal
154.06 - strong

154.06 is the only one I consider a good scalp line.

[MattW2009]

Originally Posted by SanMiguel

156.70 - scalp line or not? A bit weak
155.93 - ? bit stronger but not ideal
154.06 - strong

I'm with Phil on this one. The other lines don't have a clear enough trend to and away from the low so don't qualify as scalp lines in my book.

Phil (and anyone else?) - are you trading half positions until things 'return to normal' or sticking to your usual lot size?

Matt

[johnnykanoo]

there is absolutly no reason to trade anything less than an a+ setup. When you risk capitol you should never settle for less.

for me im going to only paper trade this method till end of summer.

having said that i will definatly be eyeing the 154 level

[ThePhoenix]

Originally Posted by johnnykanoo

there is absolutly no reason to trade anything less than an a+ setup. When you risk capitol you should never settle for less.

for me im going to only paper trade this method till end of summer.

having said that i will definatly be eyeing the 154 level

I think you should reconsider that outlook. If you only trade when the perfect storm comes along, you will very rarely trade, you will very rarely make any money, and sometimes you will lose money even on the A+ set up.

I agree, whatever method you are trading you should have a certain level of confirmation, but there is no sure thing or A+ set up that is always a winner. There is only probability. If a trader can't accept risk then they shouldn't trade.

[dobro]

I'm with johnnyK on this one - A+ setups have the highest probability for earning the most pips and running the longest. I know this thread trades just the one pr but sticking with A+ will give the most bang for the buck and keep one out of low probability trades. d.

[phil838]

Originally Posted by ThePhoenix

I think you should reconsider that outlook. If you only trade when the perfect storm comes along, you will very rarely trade, you will very rarely make any money, and sometimes you will lose money even on the A+ set up.

ThePhoenix has a good point, but I don't think it applies to NickB scalp lines.

If you win 100 1:1 trades with a 60% win rate then you will make more money than if you traded 10 1:1 trades with a 100% win rate.

If you're scalping a 1M or 5M chart then you're going to want do to what ThePhoenix is suggesting, but if you're trading longer TF's then you want to wait and get the A+ setups.

I disagree with ThePhoenix on how many trades you need to take to make good money, mainly because we have different opinions on what "good money" is.

I only take a few (around 3-5) trades per week and I make around 3-5% per week. To me that's "good money," but to more aggressive traders it may not be.

[ThePhoenix]

Originally Posted by phil838

ThePhoenix has a good point, but I don't think it applies to NickB scalp lines.

If you win 100 1:1 trades with a 60% win rate then you will make more money than if you traded 10 1:1 trades with a 100% win rate.

If you're scalping a 1M or 5M chart then you're going to want do to what ThePhoenix is suggesting, but if you're trading longer TF's then you want to wait and get the A+ setups.

I disagree with ThePhoenix on how many trades you need to take to make good money, mainly because we have different opinions on what "good money" is.

I only take a few (around 3-5) trades per week and I make around 3-5% per week. To me that's "good money," but to more aggressive traders it may not be.

What I was getting at with saying, if you only ever trade the perfect storm or A+ set up, is that most new traders that think like that are looking for a perfect formula of indicators or candlestick patterns or whatever. They think if they all line up just right, like written in some book, that will guarantee a win.....because that is the A+ set up.

They want to rely on an A+ set up to make all the decisions and take all personal discretion out of the trade. It just doesn't work like that. There is no A+ forumula that always lines up exactly the same way and doesn't take some amount of personal descrection and judgement.

You and I both know by now, there is no such thing as A+ set ups.

Even on nickB's system there is much personal discretion and judgment allowed and even implied in the instruction, as far as how many candles to count for reversals or between scalp lines and things of that nature.

Even you yourself have taken lines successfully that nickB has not considered valid.