Some of my thoughts + Trading System - Page 15
Page 15 of 29 FirstFirst ... 5 13 14 15 16 17 25 ... LastLast
Results 141 to 150 of 285
  1. #141
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    GBP/USD Trade #2


    CHART 2


    Active Wave 2:
    H: 9728 L: 9635


    ENTRY: 1.9714
    SL: Currently Floating
    CURRENT PROFIT: +79

    We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
    (At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

    - We redraw our fibonnacci levels*
    - We disregard the previous W40.1 fibonacci levels*

    OUR BIAS: No one "whole" candle has closed over 75.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.2 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 01-18-2007 at 10:52 AM.

  2. #142
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    Hi guys just a quick heads up,

    It is possible that we only have 1 Active Wave with H: 9777 and L: 9635 and not two ( W 40.1 and W 40.2 )

    This would give us a 75 Short termination level of 9741.

    Nobody draws perfect waves ... don't hate me

    Either way we will see what happens.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

  3. #143
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    We had a whole candle close above 75% of W 40.2, but the reason why that happened is:

    "Rumors in the market of a U.S. Naval vessel struck by an Iranian missle"

    *The dollar just sold off on vague rumors of US action in Iran. The rumors are variously that there has been some kind of contact between US and Iranian naval vessels in the Persian Gulf or that the US is going to take some action in the near future. Looks like the story has run it course and the dollar-selling/Treasury buying has run its course.

    *US officials denying Iranian conflict rumors

    *US officials saying Iran story not true

    *The rumor was that Iran had launched a missile strike against a US nay ship, now being denied by Pentagon official via Reuters


    My bias is still short and i consider this termination signal negative as it was largely emotion and news influenced a spike of fear and confusion.

    Some people who were short, got scared by the news, thats all.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Last edited by elang; 01-18-2007 at 10:55 AM.

  4. #144
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    GBP/USD Trade #2


    CHART 3


    Active Wave 3:
    H: 9738 L: 9635


    ENTRY: 1.9714
    SL: Currently Floating
    CURRENT PROFIT: +25

    We determine that a new wave is active by noticing a correction of a valid W40.
    (At Least 40 Pips prior to the correction)

    - We redraw our fibonnacci levels*
    - We disregard the previous W40.2 fibonacci levels*

    OUR BIAS: No one "whole" candle has closed over 25.0% Fibonnacci Level of the newly drawn W40.3 (40 Pip Wave) so we hold Short, until a whole candle closes over.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  5. #145
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    The attached chart is also a possibility for W 40.1

    GBP/USD

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9625; (P) 1.9673; (R1) 1.9744; More
    Despite rising further to 1.9777, cable failed to stay firmly above 1.9750 resistance. Subsequent retreat has pushed cable to below 1.9675 minor support with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. A short term top should be formed at 1.9777 and further consolidation is in favor to follow with risk of pulling back towards 1.9587 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9580. However, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9458) and bring rally resumption.

    On the upside, above 1.9777 again will indicate rally from 1.9261 has already resumed for next upside target of 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917.
    In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9846 high will confirm that rally from 1.8517 has resumed. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key cluster resistance of 2.0106 (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).

    On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support to indicate argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed and shift short term focus back to the downside.


    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 01-18-2007 at 11:11 AM.

  6. #146
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Posts
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by elang View Post
    Hi guys just a quick heads up,

    It is possible that we only have 1 Active Wave with H: 9777 and L: 9635 and not two ( W 40.1 and W 40.2 )

    This would give us a 75 Short termination level of 9741.

    Nobody draws perfect waves ... don't hate me

    Either way we will see what happens.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Elang,

    Are there any rules to determine if it's one continuous wave or two separate waves?

    Thanks (dropped a vote in the box)

  7. #147
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    Dear Mirzyk,

    It is very difficult to say.

    It is just one of those things that you have to sense with an experienced eye.

    I personally know a pro trader wo trades Elliot Waves and gets his waves wrong all the time, but that doesn't mean his system doesn't work or that he is a bad trader.

    In cases like these we just need to realize our mistakes and take the best action to correct it and minimize our losses so we can safely get back on track.

    Trade 2 (Short on GBP/USD) has been terminated as my stop was hit.

    The wave which i should have drawn was longer as i said yesterday and quote:

    "It is possible that we only have 1 Active Wave with H: 9777 and L: 9635 and not two ( W 40.1 and W 40.2 )

    This would give us a 75 Short termination level of 9741."

    Which means that the short position we took would have terminated about 4 hours ago approximately, with the current time being: 07:55 GMT

    Please see the attached chart to understand what i mean.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  8. #148
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    For today using the retracement system,

    I've noticed 2 active waves.

    I don't have any positions open yet, i am just speculating as the price is at a very vulnurable level at the moment, totally overbought, yet with somewhat strange signs of a continuing rally.

    I will wait for better entry signals.

    Regards,
    E. Lang

    PS: Don't forget to establish an awareness of the news for today:
    Easy-Forex: The Financial Calendar
    Attached Images Attached Images    

  9. #149
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    We have 2 types of waves: Impulsive and Corrective



    I am using a standard Elliot Wave cycle to try and more clearly define the difference.

    The impulsive wave in red, is individual, it is independent - it is the RALLY or the DECLINE in a price.

    Once an impulse ends it is followed by a correction and then another impulse and then another correction of that impulse and then another correction etc.

    When the above is happening and we have impulses followed by corrections, we consider the current move to be healthy, whether declining or rising.

    This is the way the market works, impulses are always larger than corrections and corrections are always smaller that or equal to a percentage of its impulse... a percentage like... 25%, 38.2, 50, 61.2... are you getting my drift ?



    The correction is merely a price level at which traders decide to cash in profits - Since however there is two sides to the market, long and short, scared and greedy, confused and experienced etc... not everyone will take profit at that level, so the correction of the price is limited to a certain point... defined points we know as 25%, 38.2, 50, 61.2 etc.

    A price movement is considered a correction ONLY if it corrects to a certain amount of the price.

    For example if you have a bearish impulsive wave with a high of 1.100 and a low of 1.1:

    - It is ok to consider the new price movement a correction if it reaches only as far as 1.25 (25%) or 1.38 (38.2) or 1.50 (50%) or 1.61 (61.2) or even 1.75 (75%) BUT if the price closes below 75% and moves further up, this is no longer a correction because it has reached price levels which are nearly or equal to reaching 100% of the previous move... this is not a correction

    Corrections are just that: "they correct", correcting in normal English does not envision absolutely emphasizing change, it means partially emphasizing and applying change, so a price movement which is which is corrected absolutely is not a correction of its impulse, but rather a whole new Impulse on its own.

    It is possible to have 1 impulse wave then another impulse wave right after in such a case, but naturally the market moves firstly in an impulse and then in a movement that corrects that impulse to a Fibonacci level.

    One more example:

    Bearish Wave with H: 1.100 and L: 1.1

    When the price corrects (upwards) it can reach:

    25%: Then start an impulse

    This is an early correction meaning in my understanding that nobody hardly thought they should have taken profit and there is confidence that the decline will resume and still has much life

    38.2%: Then starts an impulse

    This is the logical correction level that almost everybody asumes the price will bounce off it is closely watched by pros and newbees alike.

    50%: Then starts an impulse

    This is normaly a very strong level and it is inbetween 38.2 / 61.8
    "Some People" don't draw a 50% leve, they just have 38.2 and 61.8 and they leave a gap inbetween, which they consider a level within which they will accept prices to be in a retracement area and would consider any price action there retracement relative.

    This is useful as it is common for people to draw their Fibonacci levels from different points, consecutively ending up with varying retracement levels.

    When you have a gap between 38.2 and 61.8 it gives you the opportunity to amass all probable retracement level differencials created by varying drawing techniques and to bring them within one stable retracement area.

    68.1%: Then starts an impulse

    This is also a common retracement level. If the price fails at 38.2% people look for 68.1%

    If a price breaks decisively out of 68.1%, you should start considering possibilities for this correction to actualy be an impulse and perhaps a new decline / rise... why ?

    Because a rally is defined by: Higher Highs and Lower Lows, where as a Decline by Lower Lows and Lower Highs.

    If a rally doesnt make a higher high, but stops rather somewhere inbetween its last correction and starts to decline AND ACTUALY makes a low below its correction or last higher low, you should wonder weather this rally is terminating.

    Once again i stress.

    RALLY = HH and HL
    DECLINE = LH and LL

    75%: Then starts an impulse

    At this point in time you should have taken the necessary measures to prepare yourself for a good exit or taking a loss.

    Price movement around this level is dangerous and you should be as weary as a virgin chicken in a rooster-house

    If we have a close below this level we have a whole candle close (including wicks) below this level we are obliged to terminate our position.

    Some would even terminate after a whole candle close below 61.8%

    So... if a price corrects to 38.2 or 61.8 or in the gap between them and then moves up to 25% and closes a bove that with a good signal, it is ok to buy.

    Vice Versa if a price corrects to 38.2 or 61.8 and keeps on moving down and closes below 75% it is ok to short.

    These are simple guides synthesized from basic Elliot Wave and Fibonnacci principles, there is no magic.

    Keep in mind that no matter how reliable a system is, you need to be weary of R and S levels.

    I hope this somewhat helps Ahefner33
    Regards,
    E. Lang

    PS: If you feel this post has helped you out with your trading or given you insight to a better trading attitude please reward it with a few modest Reputation Points.

    More Rep Points = Happy Effi = More Posts = Bigger Brain... kapish ?

    GBP/USD DAILY REPORT


    Cable strengthens mildly today but upside is still limited by 1.9777 resistance so far. As discussed before, the deep retreat from 1.9777 with mild bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI suggest a short term top is formed at 1.9777 and further consolidation is in favor to follow. As long as cable stays below 1.9777 resistance, risk remains for another pull back towards 1.9587 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9580. However, we'd expect downside to be contained above 1.9452 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9261 to 1.9777 at 1.9458) and bring rally resumption.

    On the upside, above 1.9777 again will indicate rally from 1.9261 has already resumed for next upside target of 1.9846 high and then 138.2% projection of 1.8090 to 1.9142 from 1.8517 at 1.9917.

    In the bigger picture, correction from 1.9846 has completed after three waves down to 1.9261. Break of 1.9846 high will confirm that rally from 1.8517 has resumed. However, close attention will be paid to sign of loss of upside momentum and reversal pattern formation as cable approaches key cluster resistance of 2.0106 (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067).

    On the downside, it will take a break below 1.9452 support to indicate argue that the whole rise from 1.9261 has completed and shift short term focus back to the downside.

    Last edited by elang; 01-19-2007 at 04:43 AM.

  10. #150
    elang's Avatar
    elang is offline Superior Master Contributor and Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Varna, Bulgaria
    Posts
    754
    GBP/CHF Short Possibility based on the retraement rules.

    We will see how it works out.

    Regards,
    E. Lang
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by elang; 01-19-2007 at 05:05 AM.

Forum Sponsors

Similar Threads

  1. Is A Futures/options Trading System Right For You?
    By geline in forum Free Forex Trading Systems
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 05-14-2014, 03:25 AM
  2. need some help coding my trading system...plz help !!
    By kdlfx2000 in forum Expert Advisors and Automated Trading
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 06-20-2011, 01:34 PM
  3. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 01-19-2008, 12:34 PM
  4. AbleSys Trading System
    By Runic in forum Show me the money! [Swing Trading]
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 06-03-2006, 06:04 AM
  5. Basic Trading System Components
    By geline in forum Forextown
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 05-26-2006, 01:30 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
"The harder I work, the luckier I get."
Samuel Goldwyn